ZIP 11377 functions as both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI was $2,939 per month, up 8.0% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it supplies a current market signal rather than a lease ledger or a bedroom-specific quote. The key tension begins with that increase: asking-rent momentum is strong, while the rest of the packet requires caution when translating one current index reading into household affordability or a conclusion about a particular property.
The backward-looking ZORI record confirms an upward longer path rather than breaking from it. Exact same-month annualized changes were 8.0% over 1 year, 5.1% over 3 years, and 6.8% over 5 years; the most recent pace is faster than both longer comparison windows. The history has full coverage across 70 monthly observations. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 3.6%, placing this ZIP in the supplied high-variability category and reducing confidence that a single current rent snapshot is fully representative of near-term conditions. Separately, the largest recorded peak-to-trough decline was 2.6%, a comparatively contained historical retreat. Discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 133, stability at 2,314, and the balanced measure at 704, where lower rank is stronger. These are retrospective measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Affordability looks materially different in the matched ZCTA’s ACS five-year survey. ACS median gross rent was $1,804, a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, while median household income was $73,073. Those figures are not interchangeable with Zillow’s current asking-rent index: they describe different populations, timing, and rent concepts. Applying the 30% required-income screen mechanically to the current ZORI produces $117,560 of annual income, and the same comparison puts asking rent at 48.3% of the reported median household income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter-home universe, 12,158 of 23,705 renter households, or 51.3%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold; that does not establish burden for any one unit or household.
The bedroom ladder should also be read as a model, not as a set of measured ZIP rent comps. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,132 for a studio, $2,473 for one bedroom, $2,939 for two bedrooms, $3,600 for three bedrooms, and $4,148 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,616, which places the ZIP ZORI benchmark 12.3% above that administrative standard. HUD FMR or SAFMR is bedroom-specific and useful for constructing the local ladder, but it is not asking rent. The modelled estimates therefore organize the current ZORI signal by bedroom size; they do not measure achieved rents, advertised rents, utilities, concessions, or unit condition.
The ZCTA housing-stock evidence describes a renter-heavy base, but not live availability. ACS estimates show 35,254 housing units, of which 33,612 were occupied and 1,642 were vacant, yielding a 4.7% vacancy rate. Renters accounted for 70.5% of occupied homes, and large multifamily structures were the leading identified structure category. These counts provide context for the broad housing base behind the rent and burden measures, yet they cannot show whether a specific building has vacant apartments, what terms are attached to an advertised unit, or whether the counted vacancy is suitable for a given household. ZCTA vacancy is an area-level estimate, not proof that any particular rental is available.
Broader comparisons show that the ZIP index sits below wider asking-rent context, despite its recent local acceleration: the citywide New York context rent is $4,133, the Queens County context rent is $3,256, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro context rent is $3,573. Each is a wider geographic context rather than a substitute for the ZIP reading. The difference matters because city, county, and metro figures can contain different rental mixes and market conditions than 11377. They support the conclusion that the ZIP’s current asking-rent index is lower than these named benchmarks, but they do not revise the ZIP’s ACS burden estimates, HUD standards, or history record.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation introduces a meaningful counterweight to the rent story. Median sold price was $654,852, up 11.2% year over year, with 50 homes sold and a median 49 days on market. At the same time, inventory was 203 homes and months of supply stood at 12.2, while the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.7% and 26.6% of sales closed above list. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions or rental comps. Rising sold prices broadly confirm upward market pressure suggested by rent history, but the substantial supply reading, marketing time, and below-list average challenge any simple interpretation of uniformly tight conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 5.4% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.
Important limits remain. ZORI does not identify bedroom mix, lease signing date, included utilities, or concessions; ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin measures resale activity rather than rental economics. Concrete property-level checks include the actual asking rent by legal bedroom count, utilities paid by tenant or owner, concessions and lease duration, current marketing status, unit condition, building-level availability, and directly comparable closed sales where a resale comparison is relevant. The historical record can describe prior movement but cannot establish future rent direction, and area vacancy or burden cannot establish the circumstances of a particular unit. Can the specific property’s current terms and comparables support the broad signals without treating any one source as a substitute for unit-level evidence?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZORI reading rose faster over the most recent year than its three-year and five-year annualized paths. That confirms the longer upward direction, but the supplied high-variability classification means one current index point should carry less stand-alone confidence. The historical drawdown was limited, yet the stability discovery rank remains weak relative to the momentum rank.","title":"Asking-rent momentum is strong but historically variable"},{"body":"Current asking rent and ACS median gross rent answer different questions. The ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, whereas ACS reports occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The mechanical income screen exceeds reported median household income, and more than half of ACS renter households reported gross-rent burdens of at least 30%. Neither result determines affordability or qualification for a particular household.","title":"The affordability screen is more strained than ACS gross rent alone suggests"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They can help organize a broad asking-rent signal across unit sizes, but they are not measured bedroom rents and should not replace current listings. HUD FMR or SAFMR remains an administrative standard, not evidence of an advertised or signed rent in this ZIP.","title":"Bedroom figures are structured estimates rather than observed rents"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a higher median sold price year over year, which is directionally consistent with the rent-history increase. Yet elevated months of supply, a meaningful marketing period, and an average sale price below list complicate a uniformly tight-market reading. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screen and cannot describe property-level economics.","title":"Resale strength coexists with slower-looking liquidity signals"}],"risks":["A current ZORI figure is a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the bedroom count, lease terms, utilities, concessions, or condition of a specific available unit.","ACS gross rent, income, burden, housing stock, and vacancy figures are ZCTA survey estimates for occupied homes and cannot demonstrate affordability, vacancy, or tenant burden at any particular property.","The historical rent series is backward-looking and classified as high variability. Strong recent growth does not establish future rent direction, while a single snapshot may overstate or understate current market conditions.","Redfin resale observations concern homes sold and listed in the for-sale market. Supply, marketing, and sale-to-list measures cannot be treated as rental transactions, rental comparables, or property operating results."],"qa":[{"a":"They are different evidence universes. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, tenant status, utility treatment, and rental mix make the gap informative but not directly comparable as a like-for-like rent change.","q":"Why does the Zillow ZORI exceed the ACS median gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply annualizes the current monthly ZORI and divides by 30% to show the income level implied by that arithmetic. It is not financial advice, a household budget, a lender rule, or an applicant qualification standard. Actual affordability depends on the unit’s price and terms, household income, utilities, obligations, and other facts not supplied here.","q":"Does the 30% income screen determine whether a household can qualify?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP’s ZORI level. HUD’s bedroom-specific FMR or SAFMR values are administrative standards rather than asking rents. The resulting ladder is useful for organizing a broad benchmark, but listings and signed leases are needed to identify actual bedroom-specific market rents.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rental comps for 11377?"},{"a":"It adds a separate direct ZIP view of the for-sale market: sold prices, sales count, marketing time, inventory, months of supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Those facts can test whether resale signals align with or challenge the rent narrative, but they do not measure rental transactions. The annualized ZORI divided by sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a return measure.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block add to the rental analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2108.098355},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2106.158532},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2117.552004},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2109.93159},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2098.261531},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2069.90216},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2090.644837},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2126.701111},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2128.492248},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2118.136519},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2073.428342},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2089.024149},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2089.921408},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2119.621403},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2118.355231},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2146.578475},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2191.123148},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2229.246659},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2255.415023},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2224.266175},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2248.591594},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2255.766033},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2336.087857},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2365.999756},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2417.28306},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2406.558945},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2424.304453},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2424.913375},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2410.474508},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2427.81815},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2427.263334},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2463.55593},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2485.284927},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2529.726766},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2546.370245},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2528.487297},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2533.148142},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2540.176605},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2577.390463},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2575.004214},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2631.954096},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2604.134525},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2611.767861},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2597.715526},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2618.560775},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2633.314241},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2590.324295},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2590.605603},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2571.794655},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2627.251013},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2656.084162},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2703.679336},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2688.987605},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2685.250126},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2699.005113},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2708.065172},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2725.667289},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2720.560932},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2759.041366},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2791.649832},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2824.685621},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2809.442078},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2796.440643},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2792.415467},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2810.774568},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2857.028026},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2877.532562},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2907.27966},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2914.316861},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2938.655271}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":70,"firstPeriod":"2020-09-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":70,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2720.560932,"endRent":2938.655271,"change":0.08016521020893652,"cagr":0.08016521020893652},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2529.726766,"endRent":2938.655271,"change":0.16164927789675754,"cagr":0.05121530571508681},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2118.136519,"endRent":2938.655271,"change":0.3873776523089161,"cagr":0.06767466873870887}},"maxDrawdown":-0.025869911460443262,"annualizedVolatility":0.03581635830783951,"consecutiveReturnCount":69}}