At $3,436 per month, the latest 11385 Zillow rent reading stands 71.5% above the $2,004 ACS median gross rent. That is the central measured tension: the asking-rent index and the survey median describe materially different rent levels, while ZIP median household income is $88,838. Dividing a year of the index by that income gives 46.4%; the parallel 30% screen requires $137,440 in annual income. This is arithmetic rather than advice or a rule for applicant qualification, but it frames why a current asking-rent snapshot should not be treated as a typical renter’s paid housing cost.
The backward-looking Zillow history still shows a positive path. The exact same-month one-year rent-history change was 6.4%, the three-year rent-history change was 5.3%, and the five-year rent-history change was 8.1% annualized. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path and exceeds the three-year pace, while remaining below the stronger five-year pace. Coverage was 100% across 122 observations and 121 consecutive monthly returns. Monthly changes produced 2.8% annualized variability, which supports some confidence in the current index but not precision for every listing; separately, the maximum drawdown of 9.6% shows that the path has had meaningful declines. Transparent discovery measures place momentum at 92.2 and rank 172, stability at 54.6 and rank 1,318, and the balanced measure at 77.2 and rank 240 among history-eligible ZIPs, with lower ranks stronger. These are descriptive ranks, not forecasts or investment signals.
Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The five-digit label 11385 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For wider context only, the New York City asking-rent value is $4,133, the Queens County value is $3,256, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City metro value is $3,573; these city, county, and metro figures do not describe the direct ZIP rent observation. The ZIP sits below the city and metro context readings but above the county context reading, a comparison that does not resolve the gap between asking rent and ACS paid-rent evidence.
The bedroom ladder is useful for sizing the ZIP index, but it does not supply measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,492 for a studio, $2,891 for one bedroom, $3,436 for two bedrooms, $4,209 for three bedrooms, and $4,850 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD standards run from $1,898 for a studio through $2,202, $2,616, $3,205, and $3,693 for larger bedroom counts. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the modelled estimates inherit its relative ladder while preserving the ZIP ZORI level.
ACS housing evidence indicates a renter-heavy stock, not a statement about the availability of any specific home. Of 40,186 housing units in the matched ZCTA, 2,408 were vacant, a 6.0% vacancy rate. Renters accounted for 69.3% of occupied homes, and 44.8% of renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income. The survey also counted 781 units vacant for rent. Those figures can describe the area’s surveyed housing and burden distribution, but neither vacancy nor burden proves the condition, price, utility package, or availability of a particular unit.
Redfin supplies a separate direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $879,801, down 3.9% year over year, with 57 homes sold and 52 days on market. Reported inventory was 98 homes, up 22.3%, alongside 5.2 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence also leaned below list: the average sale-to-list ratio was 96.0%, while 18.2% of sales closed above list. These measures describe for-sale liquidity and pricing signals within ZIP 11385; they cannot be used as rental comparables or as evidence of lease activity.
The resale record creates an important tension with the rent history. The asking-rent index rose over its one-year, three-year, and five-year windows, yet the direct ZIP median sold price declined while inventory increased and average sale-to-list performance remained below list. That combination challenges any simple conclusion that a rising rent index is uniformly confirmed by the for-sale market. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price equals a 4.69% cross-source screening ratio only. It is sensitive to the difference between an index and a rolling resale median, and it does not represent operating costs, financing, taxes, unit quality, or transaction-specific economics.
Several limits remain material. ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents rather than signed leases, ACS uses surveyed occupied renter households and a different measurement period, HUD uses administrative standards, and Redfin reports resale activity rather than rentals. Property-level review would need to verify the actual asking rent, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, listing date, availability, building condition, and whether a comparable sale matches the property type and timing being evaluated. The evidence supports a measured comparison of distinct datasets, not a conclusion about a particular address. What unit-specific documents would narrow the difference between the current asking-rent index and the actual monthly housing cost?
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s Zillow asking-rent index is materially above the matched ACS median gross-rent measure. This is not necessarily a contradiction: Zillow summarizes typical observed asking rents across rental types, while ACS summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference makes source selection especially important when interpreting affordability or comparing an advertised unit with area-wide survey evidence.","title":"Asking-rent and survey-rent measures are far apart"},{"body":"Same-month Zillow history shows positive annualized growth over one, three, and five years. The latest one-year pace is above the three-year pace but below the five-year pace, indicating continued growth without matching the full longer-run rate. Complete coverage strengthens continuity, while the recorded drawdown means a current index point should retain an uncertainty allowance.","title":"Rent history is positive but not free of setbacks"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price year over year, more inventory, months of supply above five, and average sales below list. These are for-sale observations rather than rental transactions. They create a cross-market tension with rising asking-rent history and caution against treating a rent-to-price screening calculation as a property-specific economic conclusion.","title":"Resale conditions do not fully reinforce the rent signal"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. They preserve the ZIP’s overall asking-rent level while reflecting HUD’s bedroom relationships. Because HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent survey, the resulting ladder should be used for sizing comparisons rather than as evidence of achieved rents by bedroom count.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not lease observations"}],"risks":["The large gap between Zillow asking rent and ACS median gross rent means a reader could reach a misleading affordability conclusion if index rents, paid rents, utility treatment, and survey scope are treated as interchangeable.","Although the rent-history record has complete coverage, its maximum drawdown shows that historical growth was not continuous. A single current rent index reading should therefore not be interpreted as a guaranteed level for every listing.","Redfin’s resale metrics concern homes sold in a rolling three-month ZIP window, not leased homes. Using sale prices, marketing time, or sale-to-list results as rental transaction evidence would mix incompatible markets.","Vacancy and rent-burden measures describe aggregated matched-ZCTA survey conditions. They cannot establish whether an individual apartment is vacant, affordable to a particular household, includes utilities, or matches the modelled bedroom category."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different timing, lease status, housing mix, and utility treatment can all produce a sizeable difference.","q":"Why is Zillow rent higher than ACS median gross rent here?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey, so the estimates indicate relative sizing rather than measured rents for individual advertised units.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s direct ZIP median sold price. The result is only a cross-source screening ratio because the numerator is an asking-rent index and the denominator is a rolling resale median. It excludes property-specific expenses, financing, condition, taxes, and transaction timing.","q":"What does the rent-to-sale-price screening ratio show?"},{"a":"Review the actual listing rent, bedroom count, utility inclusions, concessions, availability date, and lease terms. For resale comparisons, verify property type, sale date, condition, listing history, and whether the sale is genuinely comparable. Also confirm how the address relates to the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA boundary.","q":"What property-level checks would make this evidence more specific?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":2262.450955},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":2300.796558},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":2309.734674},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":2311.07201},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":2296.255277},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":2329.963274},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2329.955774},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2337.198167},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2327.307727},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":2316.56843},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2327.136386},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2308.144606},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2339.333667},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2325.838018},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2337.119511},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":2321.703525},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":2360.081646},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":2346.803632},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":2357.68353},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":2338.896363},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2341.89338},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2317.251959},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2325.927764},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2336.032118},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2357.069921},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2348.695174},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2339.297574},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2341.110761},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2349.024414},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2383.595807},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2373.678942},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2386.490447},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2375.802658},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2408.445486},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2407.384187},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2419.61194},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2408.593668},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2427.567002},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2443.979095},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2466.244263},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2461.826484},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2453.463102},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2476.214193},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2496.37404},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2527.379448},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2538.108584},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2521.210269},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2502.104649},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2497.623677},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2466.974179},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2442.011109},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2391.490936},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2371.566567},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2351.526332},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2322.425499},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2301.289028},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2293.706133},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2296.025922},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2311.509836},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2310.989453},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2330.893983},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2331.455547},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2365.124127},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2393.254603},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2447.229595},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2488.208384},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2534.806112},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2573.760369},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2608.147709},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2634.90447},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2656.833089},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2698.246656},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2733.287224},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2807.854159},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2839.45027},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2893.958145},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2897.652607},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2925.919253},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2925.628182},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2939.157011},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2920.354322},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2923.720075},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2924.03515},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2948.969214},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2951.702121},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2942.43544},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2929.527265},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2943.423002},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2977.932381},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":3011.032675},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":3041.709385},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":3044.931086},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":3043.509459},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":3046.844451},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":3078.440277},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":3087.01877},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":3097.166407},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":3088.82593},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":3114.02742},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":3131.65188},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":3125.319592},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":3111.475743},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":3090.264308},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":3113.989614},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3160.543132},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3186.129695},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3202.274924},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3197.211703},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3214.837399},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3228.791879},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3241.537523},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3241.951381},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3261.232405},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3283.150046},{"period":"2025-11-0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