At June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP market identifier 11435, which also matches a Census ZCTA, recorded a $2,319 monthly ZORI. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level median or a utility-inclusive household-cost measure. Same-month annualized ZORI change was 0.16% over one year, compared with 4.69% over three years and 5.37% over five years. Coverage reached 98.5%, so the history is broadly complete, but the very recent pace is substantially slower than the multi-year path.
The longer record calls for caution in treating the current asking-rent reading as a stable endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability measured 4.2%, indicating that rent-index movements have not followed a smooth path from month to month. Separately, the worst peak-to-trough decline was 5.7%, evidence that the historical series experienced a meaningful reversal before recovering. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,440 for momentum, 2,677 for stability, and 2,308 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is stronger. Those backward-looking measures frame discovery rather than a forecast, investment view, or prediction of future rent direction.
The ACS and HUD figures answer different questions from ZORI. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,842, making the current asking-rent index 25.9% higher. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it should not be read as a current advertised-rent comparison. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard was $2,616; ZORI sits 11.4% below that administrative benchmark, which is not asking rent. Scaling ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled estimates of $1,682 for a studio, $1,951 for one bedroom, $2,319 for two bedrooms, $2,841 for three bedrooms, and $3,273 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Income and household data create a separate affordability tension. Median household income in the ZCTA was $79,710, while annual income required to place the ZORI amount at the 30% screen was $92,760; the index therefore equals 34.9% of that median income on a simple annualized calculation. This required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports that 53.6% of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward rent. Of 21,405 housing units, 64.0% of occupied homes were renter occupied, and 9,758 units were in large multifamily structures. The overall vacancy rate was 6.2%; that aggregate measure cannot establish availability, condition, or pricing for any particular unit.
Wider benchmarks emphasize how far the ZIP asking index sits below surrounding asking-rent contexts: the New York city context was $4,133, the Queens County context was $3,256, and the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA metro context was $3,573. These city, county, and metro figures are wider-area context only, not substitutes for ZIP-level rental observations. The ZCTA’s ACS gross-rent figure was also below the cited city and county survey contexts, while the local renter share exceeded the county context. Neither comparison resolves whether an advertised unit matches the ZIP index, because geography and source universe remain different.
Redfin supplies a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Its median sold price was $644,854, up 84.2% year over year, with 38 homes sold and a median 68 days on market. There were 144 active listings and inventory of 84 homes, alongside 6.7 months of supply. Sale-to-list indicators were more measured than the headline price change: average sale-to-list was 97.7%, and 24.4% of sales closed above list. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 4.3% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The resale and rent evidence therefore pull in different directions. The exceptional observed resale-price change could appear to support a strong market reading, yet the nearly flat recent asking-rent change, the earlier drawdown, below-list average sale outcomes, and months of supply do not support a simple one-way interpretation. The resale figures describe homes that sold, while ZORI summarizes observed asking rents across rental types and ACS describes occupied renter households. High historical rent variability further reduces confidence that one current ZORI snapshot alone captures a durable local rent position. The affordability screen adds another restraint because it compares the asking index with area household income rather than a subject property’s tenant profile.
Several limits remain material. ZORI does not identify unit condition, lease concessions, utility treatment, building type, or whether a currently advertised home is comparable. ACS is a five-year survey with stated margins of error, and its burden and vacancy measures are area aggregates rather than evidence about a particular household or apartment. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, while Redfin’s rolling resale measures cannot establish rental economics. A property-level review would need current comparable asking terms, bedroom configuration, included utilities, actual listing availability, lease conditions, sale comparables, and whether the subject’s physical characteristics match the evidence universe being used. Do the subject property’s current terms and matched resale evidence align with these ZIP-level screens?
","findings":[{"body":"The latest same-month ZORI change is nearly flat, while the three-year and five-year annualized changes remain materially stronger. That contrast means the recent rent direction does not confirm the longer growth path. Historical variability and a prior drawdown also make a single current asking-rent index less conclusive than a smooth long-run trend might imply.","title":"Recent rent growth has broken from the longer trend"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The gap among these figures is informative about source scope, but it does not prove that a particular advertised apartment is overpriced or underpriced.","title":"Rent sources should not be substituted for one another"},{"body":"The arithmetic income needed to place the ZIP asking-rent index at the stated share of income exceeds ZCTA median household income. Separately, more than half of renter households in the ACS survey met the rent-burden threshold. These are area-level screens, not evidence of an individual renter’s income, lease terms, utility expenses, or qualification outcome.","title":"Area affordability measures remain stretched"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation shows a sharp year-over-year median price increase, but marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list measures provide a more mixed liquidity picture. Combined with flat recent asking-rent growth, the resale data do not establish that rent conditions are accelerating. The rent-to-price calculation remains only a cross-source screen, not property economics.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rental-strength reading"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent indexing, ACS occupied-household survey results, HUD administrative standards, and Redfin resale observations measure different universes. Treating any one as a direct substitute for another can produce misleading conclusions.","The rent record has meaningful month-to-month variability and a documented historical decline. A current index observation may be less representative when recent growth diverges from the multi-year trend.","Vacancy, renter share, and rent burden are geographic aggregates. They cannot demonstrate that a specific apartment is vacant, affordable to a specific household, properly maintained, or available on stated lease terms.","The resale observation is a rolling period with a limited number of completed sales. Median price changes and sale-to-list signals may not match the building type, condition, unit size, or transaction circumstances of a subject property."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures cover different populations and cost concepts. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, while ACS median gross rent comes from occupied renter homes in a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. The difference does not directly measure rent appreciation for the same apartments.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent figure higher than the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful as a structured size screen, but they are not measured bedroom-specific asking rents, signed leases, or evidence that an available unit rents at those amounts.","q":"Are the bedroom rent amounts observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"It annualizes the current ZIP asking-rent index and divides by the stated income share to show the income mathematically associated with that screen. It is not financial advice, an affordability determination, a tenant underwriting model, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual household costs and lease terms can differ substantially.","q":"What does the required-income calculation show?"},{"a":"It should be used only as a cross-source screening ratio formed by annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the ZIP median sold price. It does not include operating expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy, concessions, property condition, or rent collection. It is therefore not a cap rate, return estimate, or property yield.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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