At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow's typical observed asking-rent index for ZIP 12866 was $2,481 per month. Its exact same-month increase was 3.8% over one year, versus annualized changes of 4.8% over three years and 5.8% over five years. The latest direction therefore confirms the longer upward path rather than breaking from it, although recent growth is slower than both longer-period rates. History has 100% coverage of the available series, 3.6% annualized monthly-return variability, and a 3.1% maximum drawdown. This is classified as high variability, so readers should place measured, not absolute, confidence in a single current rent snapshot. The backward-looking series is neither a forecast nor an investment recommendation. Its transparent national discovery ranks are 534 for momentum, 2,295 for stability, and 1,156 for balance among history-eligible ZIPs, where a lower rank is higher.
That current index cannot be read as a census of leases or a median bill. The five-digit 12866 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. In a different evidence universe, the ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,488, with a $92 90% margin of error, for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is a survey measure, not a current asking-rent series. The index stands 67% above that survey median, a gap that can reflect differing timing, populations, rent concepts, and utility treatment; it does not establish a contradiction or price for a particular home.
Bedroom detail uses another evidence universe. The HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP index by that local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,774 for a studio, $2,066 for one bedroom, $2,481 for two bedrooms, $2,975 for three bedrooms, and $3,284 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The HUD two-bedroom standard is $1,702, placing the index-matched two-bedroom estimate 45.8% above it. The sequence is useful only for preserving local HUD bedroom spacing around the ZIP-wide ZORI; lease terms, condition, utilities, and availability can produce materially different unit asks.
The income screen identifies a tension without determining any household's eligibility. At 30% of gross income, carrying the $2,481 monthly index requires $99,240 annual income by arithmetic. The matched ZCTA median household income is $101,901, with a margin of error, and the asking-rent-to-income calculation is 29.2%. That proximity describes a ZIP-wide comparison, not the resources, tax treatment, debts, household size, or utilities of a renter. Separately, 2,938 of 6,902 ACS renter households, or 42.6%, reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Likewise, the burden statistic cannot prove that a particular available unit is affordable or burdensome.
The ACS housing picture offers composition, not a live listing inventory. The matched ZCTA contains 20,363 housing units and has a 10.4% vacancy rate; 37.8% of occupied homes are renter occupied. Of the vacant stock, 390 units are classified for rent and 1,191 as seasonal. The seasonal category is much larger than the for-rent category in this survey classification, so the total vacancy rate should not be treated as a direct count of homes presently rentable on any date. Neither vacancy categories nor the burden measure cited above prove availability, landlord terms, or affordability for a particular unit. They instead frame the tenure and vacancy composition measured in the five-year survey.
Place the ZIP in wider but noninterchangeable scopes, rather than merging their data with the ZIP. In wider monthly rent context only, the Saratoga Springs city value is $2,374, the Saratoga County value is $1,840, and the Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY metro value is $1,679; city, county, and metro figures are wider-context values only. The ZIP index sits above each comparator, with the smallest difference versus the city context. Their geographic scope, housing mix, and measurement frame differ from the ZIP ZORI, so they help bound comparison but do not replace it. The city, county, and metro series cannot identify a unit's bedroom level, included services, or asking terms.
Decision-useful use of this packet requires a property-level check at the time of inquiry. Verify the advertised rent, bedroom count, unit type, square footage, condition, included and separately billed utilities, furnishing, concessions, lease length, deposits and fees, availability date, and whether the listing remains active. Compare those facts to the ZIP-wide index only after confirming that the unit resembles the rental types represented in it. Also identify whether a quoted payment is gross rent or a base rent, because the ACS measure includes selected utilities while ZORI is an asking-rent index. The evidence does not provide listing inventory, unit quality, household-specific income, or a prediction. What current property facts would explain a listing's difference from the ZIP-wide benchmark?
","findings":[{"body":"The exact same-month index change through June 2026 was 3.8%, compared with annualized gains of 4.8% across three years and 5.8% across five years. That preserves a historical upward direction while showing slower recent growth. Full series coverage strengthens continuity, but 3.6% annualized monthly-return variability and the high-variability classification limit how much precision one current index observation can carry.","title":"Recent gain trails the longer annualized path"},{"body":"Zillow's $2,481 ZIP ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The $1,488 ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD's $1,702 two-bedroom standard is administrative and bedroom specific. The values should be compared for context, never combined into a single current market rent.","title":"Three rent concepts answer different questions"},{"body":"Using the local HUD ladder to scale the ZIP-wide ZORI produces modelled estimates from $1,774 for a studio to $3,284 for four bedrooms, with $2,481 at two bedrooms. This preserves relative bedroom spacing in the HUD standard. It does not measure asking rents by bedroom, and it cannot capture unit-level condition, utility charges, concessions, or availability.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled, not observed"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen converts the ZIP asking index to $99,240 in annual income, close to the matched ZCTA's $101,901 median household income. Separately, 42.6% of ACS renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. Neither ZIP-wide statistic is an eligibility test, nor can it establish what any particular renter or listing will experience.","title":"Income and burden indicators describe different populations"}],"risks":["A typical asking-rent index can differ from any advertised unit because bedroom count, condition, lease structure, utility treatment, and availability may not match the index mix.","The ACS ZCTA survey is a multiyear estimate for occupied renter homes and has sampling uncertainty; its geography is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its utility treatment differs from asking-rent data.","Vacancy categories are survey classifications, including a sizable seasonal component, not a real-time inventory feed. They cannot confirm that a unit is available, rentable, affordable, or offered on stated terms.","Historical rent changes, volatility, drawdown, and national discovery ranks summarize past index behavior only. They do not forecast future rents, diagnose causes, or support an investment conclusion."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure distinct universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different dates, populations, and rent definitions can create a large gap without making either measure wrong.","q":"Why is the current Zillow rent far above the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The result supplies a consistent spacing device, but a listing's layout, quality, utilities, fees, and lease terms may produce a different ask.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for this ZIP?"},{"a":"It is arithmetic: annualizing the ZIP-wide monthly asking-rent index and dividing by the stated share of gross income. It is not affordability advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about a household. The ACS burden statistic is separately survey-based and cannot establish whether any listed unit is burdensome.","q":"How should the 30% income result be interpreted?"},{"a":"Confirm the active asking rent, availability date, bedroom count, property type, condition, included and separately charged utilities, concessions, lease duration, deposits, and fees. Also confirm whether the address lies in the relevant delivery area, because the matched Census ZCTA is a statistical geography and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What should be verified before comparing a property to this ZIP?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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