Resale liquidity is the sharpest counterweight to the rent evidence here. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, ZIP 14216’s median sold price was $379,914, 1.31% above a year earlier; 40 homes sold with a median 10 days on market. There were 86 active listings and an inventory measure of 24 homes, alongside 1.8 months of supply. Sale-to-list averaged 105.15%, while 56.46% of sales closed above list and 57.08% went off market within two weeks. Those are for-sale transaction signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 5.08% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.
Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is $1,608 for June 2026, following a 5.78% year-over-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it should not be read as the asking rent of every available home or apartment. Against that ZIP index, the Buffalo city context is $1,430, the Erie County county context is $1,498, and the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY metro context is $1,461. The ZIP index is therefore above each wider-area rent context, although those city, county, and metro figures are context rather than substitutes for ZIP evidence. The matched ACS median gross rent is $1,211, materially below ZORI because it is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities rather than a current asking-rent index.
The backward-looking rent path broadly confirms the current upward direction rather than breaking from it. Exact same-month ZORI growth measured 5.78% over one year, 4.46% annualized over three years, and 5.62% annualized over five years. The history contains 78 observations with 100% coverage, giving a complete record for the measured interval. Monthly changes produce an annualized variability reading of 2.44%, which supports more confidence in the current index snapshot than a highly erratic series would. The worst peak-to-trough decline was 2.53%, a limited historical setback rather than evidence that declines cannot recur. Transparent national discovery ranks were 310 for momentum, 583 for stability, and 87 for the balanced measure, among history-eligible ZIPs where lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom figures are best treated as modelled estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces estimated monthly rents of $1,320 for a studio, $1,363 for one bedroom, $1,608 for two bedrooms, $1,959 for three bedrooms, and $2,236 for four bedrooms. The local HUD administrative standards run from $1,240 for a studio to $2,100 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR or SAFMR is bedroom-specific and administrative, not asking rent, while ZORI is blended across rental types. The modelled ladder is useful for keeping bedroom sizing internally consistent with the ZIP index, but it cannot establish the rent, quality, utilities, lease terms, or availability of a particular unit.
The income screen creates a meaningful tension with the stable rent history. At a 30% rent-to-income calculation, a $1,608 monthly asking-rent index corresponds to required annual household income of $64,320. That sits below the ZCTA median household income of $69,629, and the simple annualized asking-rent-to-income calculation is 27.7%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS nevertheless reports 2,772 burdened renter households out of 6,326 renter households, or 43.82% paying at least the burden threshold. That survey burden measure cannot prove what any particular household can afford, but it shows that an area-level median-income comparison does not erase rent-pressure exposure among occupied renter homes.
The ACS housing-stock view provides important scale but not a live availability count. The matched ZCTA has 12,838 housing units, of which 11,638 are occupied and 1,200 are vacant, yielding a 9.35% vacancy rate. Renters occupy 54.36% of occupied homes, and 413 vacant units are classified as for rent. These stock and tenure data help frame a renter-majority occupancy base, yet they do not identify the condition, price, bedroom count, turnover timing, or lease status of units currently marketed. Area vacancy also cannot be converted into proof that a particular property will lease quickly or face extended downtime.
This five-digit label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so the geographic match is practical rather than a claim that every delivery address shares one boundary. The source universes must remain separate: Zillow measures a blended asking-rent index, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes, HUD provides an administrative bedroom standard, and Redfin reports direct ZIP resale activity. The apparently firm resale signals confirm that the for-sale market was moving quickly, but the gap between current asking rent and surveyed gross rent, plus the renter-burden evidence, challenges any simple interpretation of the resale screen as a rental-income conclusion.
The practical limits are substantial. Neither the history nor the resale block predicts future rent, sale pricing, tenant demand, financing outcomes, or property performance. Before using these area-level measures for a specific property decision, the necessary property-level checks include the actual advertised rent for comparable units, verified bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, lease length, physical condition, current availability, and whether a sale record is genuinely comparable to the property under review. Those checks are especially important because the bedroom ladder is modelled, ACS is surveyed and retrospective, and Redfin describes completed resale transactions rather than rental economics.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI rose on one-, three-, and five-year same-month comparisons, with a complete historical observation record and limited measured variability. That supports a relatively steady backward-looking rent pattern. However, ZORI remains a blended asking-rent index across rental types, so its current reading should not be treated as a quoted rent for a specific apartment, house, or bedroom count.","title":"Stable rent growth, but not a unit-level rent quote"},{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index sits materially above the ACS median gross rent. This is not necessarily a contradiction: ACS reflects occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities, while Zillow reflects a current typical asking-rent index. The comparison is useful as a source-scope tension, not as proof that either series is incorrect.","title":"Survey rent and current asking rent describe different populations"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP-level rolling resale observation showed short marketing times, limited supply, above-list sale outcomes, and a substantial share of quickly removed listings. Those measures describe for-sale liquidity and pricing behavior only. They do not establish lease-up conditions, operating costs, tenant demand, rent collections, or the economics of a rental property.","title":"Resale conditions were tight, but resale is not rental performance"},{"body":"The arithmetic income threshold associated with the current asking-rent index is below the area median household income, but a large share of surveyed renter households reports rent burdens at or above the stated threshold. This combination indicates that median-income comparisons should be read alongside the distributional burden evidence, rather than used as a broad affordability conclusion.","title":"Area affordability screen is mixed"}],"risks":["The ZORI figure is a blended ZIP asking-rent index and can differ from the rent of a specific property because unit size, utilities, condition, lease concessions, and availability are not observed here.","ACS renter income, gross rent, burden, tenure, and vacancy measures are survey estimates for occupied homes within a statistical ZCTA, with margins of error and retrospective coverage rather than live listing conditions.","The modelled bedroom ladder borrows the shape of local HUD administrative standards, so it should not be interpreted as observed studio through four-bedroom market rents or as evidence about a particular unit.","Strong Redfin resale signals may coexist with rental affordability pressure because resale transactions, asking rents, occupied-household survey results, and HUD standards measure different populations and market processes."],"qa":[{"a":"They represent different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference may reflect timing, occupied versus marketed homes, rental mix, and included utility treatment; it is not a direct error check.","q":"Why does the asking-rent index exceed the ACS gross-rent figure?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and ZORI is not inherently bedroom-specific. The estimates provide a structured sizing tool, but actual comparable listings remain necessary for any property-level review.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual ZIP rent observations?"},{"a":"It does not directly describe the rental market. Redfin’s block is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation covering sold prices, sales pace, supply, listings, and sale-to-list outcomes. It can show whether the for-sale market was active, but it cannot establish achieved rents, lease-up speed, tenant affordability, rental operating costs, or rental transaction volume.","q":"What does the Redfin information say about the rental market?"},{"a":"The screen is a simple arithmetic comparison of annualized ZIP asking rent with household income using a stated rent-share threshold. It is not financial advice, a tenant qualification rule, or proof that any household can afford a specific home. The ACS burden statistic adds useful context because household circumstances and housing costs vary around the area median.","q":"How should the rent-to-income screen be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1130.21603},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1137.373277},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1108.642343},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1123.18951},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1130.630837},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1139.702589},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1135.67119},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1140.671409},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1155.03388},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1171.117126},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1178.358176},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1168.064443},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1177.07702},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1185.492061},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1209.166691},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1212.227298},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1219.924991},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1223.825908},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1233.344156},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1252.829817},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1271.014246},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1288.73958},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1294.074372},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1287.706824},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1288.308417},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1297.122584},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1311.563083},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1321.028074},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1318.109676},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1338.114013},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1344.679836},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1359.023811},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1360.116395},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1353.919866},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1364.003482},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1387.55295},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1399.929859},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1397.430595},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1386.196737},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1391.037663},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1406.151582},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1410.957596},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1426.225883},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1431.599516},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1432.118322},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1439.336952},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1440.302618},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1453.196238},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1458.024456},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1464.260935},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1462.972643},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1472.425293},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1477.291773},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1478.677206},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1475.130965},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1480.379539},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1488.863928},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1484.449486},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1481.28296},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1475.644763},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1498.542866},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1509.832035},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1527.153168},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1516.634088},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1521.71448},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1520.39124},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1526.880165},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1529.736578},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1535.56823},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1549.830882},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1563.404776},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1570.557934},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1561.7401},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1564.726144},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1568.991337},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1586.477364},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1592.972788},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1608.252483}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":78,"firstPeriod":"2020-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":78,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1520.39124,"endRent":1608.252483,"change":0.057788574867084996,"cagr":0.057788574867084996},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1410.957596,"endRent":1608.252483,"change":0.1398304864436195,"cagr":0.04459214609570705},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1223.825908,"endRent":1608.252483,"change":0.3141186769188742,"cagr":0.0561531959186099}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02526077812886751,"annualizedVolatility":0.0244453929213343,"consecutiveReturnCount":77}}