An upward rent index alongside a lower resale price is the central tension in 14222. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow's current ZORI is $1,526 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease count or a bedroom-specific quote. The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation reports a $519,883 median sold price, down 0.93% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sale price is 3.52%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a property-level income or valuation measure. The price movement challenges any simple reading of rent-index movement as a uniform market signal.
Backward-looking Zillow history supplies the rent path. Exact same-month ZORI change was 4.74% over one year, 4.28% annualized over three years, and 5.40% annualized over five years. The latest pace is above the intermediate pace but below the longer pace, so recent direction confirms the positive path while moderating its longer-run strength rather than breaking from it. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.84%, and maximum drawdown was a 2.44% decline. Coverage was 100% across 90 observations and 89 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 454 for momentum, 1,314 for stability, and 423 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; the contained but nonzero variability supports measured confidence in the index snapshot, never confidence in a specific listing.
Source definitions explain why the rent readings cannot be merged. The matched ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey gives median gross rent of $1,174; current ZORI is 30% higher. ACS covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI is a ZIP-level observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is not a current asking-rent series, and ZORI does not report what an occupied household pays. The difference therefore cannot establish a current lease payment, a utility bill, a rent change for a household, or the price of a particular available unit. The ACS survey's stated sampling uncertainty is an additional limit on a point comparison.
HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The modelled ZIP estimates scale ZORI through the local HUD ladder: $1,255 for a studio, $1,295 for one bedroom, $1,526 for two bedrooms, $1,867 for three bedrooms, and $2,128 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, and cannot substitute for a unit-level listing. The 30% required-income screen is arithmetic: annualizing the index produces $61,040 of required annual income at that threshold. Against ACS median household income of $81,652, annualized asking rent equals 22.43% of income. This screen is not advice, a budget determination, or an applicant qualification rule.
Within the matched ZCTA's ACS housing-stock universe, there are 7,466 housing units and 572 vacant units, a 7.66% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes total 4,145, representing 60.12% of occupied homes. The stock count includes 1,970 single-family units and 930 large multifamily units, showing that the index spans more than one structure type. A vacant-for-rent survey classification does not demonstrate that a unit is currently marketed, available, or comparable to a prospective lease. The ACS burden measure shows 43.18% of renter homes spending 30% or more of income on gross rent; that population statistic cannot prove the burden, utility treatment, or affordability of a particular unit.
Against the ZIP index, the City of Buffalo context rent, a city-scope figure, is $1,430.28; the Erie County context rent, a county-scope figure, is $1,498; and the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY metro context rent, a metro-scope figure, is $1,461. These wider readings are comparison context only, not ZIP rental comps or replacements for the matched ZCTA survey. They show that the current ZIP asking-rent index sits above each named wider context reading, but they do not alter Zillow's ZIP scope, ACS's ZCTA scope, HUD's administrative standard, or Redfin's direct ZIP resale universe.
Resale liquidity must remain in the for-sale universe. The direct rolling-three-month Redfin observation recorded 28 homes sold, a 13-day median marketing time, 17 inventory homes, and 1.9 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 100.49%, and 29.66% of sales closed above list. These measures describe resale transaction pace, supply, and pricing relative to list; they are not rental transactions or rental comparables. The transaction signals coexist with the lower median sold price cited above and the positive Zillow rent history. That tension does not resolve into a forecast, a rent conclusion, or a property-level economic result.
Important limits remain because each source measures a different universe: ZORI blends asking-rent observations, ACS surveys occupied renter homes in a statistical ZCTA, HUD sets an administrative ladder, and Redfin records ZIP resales. A property-level file would need the advertised asking rent, actual bedroom count, unit type, listing date, included utilities, lease term, fees, condition, current availability, and any relevant sale-record match before the aggregate evidence could be applied to one address. Those checks narrow definition differences rather than predict an outcome. Does the particular unit's advertised rent, included utilities, bedroom count, and lease material align with the modelled ladder and the underlying source scopes?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's backward-looking ZIP index gained 4.74% in the latest same-month year, versus annualized gains of 4.28% across three years and 5.40% across five years. Redfin's direct rolling resale median was $519,883, down 0.93% year over year. That divergence keeps rent-index momentum and for-sale pricing as separate observations rather than one conclusion.","title":"Rent history is positive while resale pricing diverges"},{"body":"ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent for the matched ZCTA was $1,174, while ZIP ZORI was $1,526. ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; ZORI measures typical observed asking rents across rental types. The 30% gap is a source-scope difference, not proof that a particular resident or listing pays either amount.","title":"Current asking rent exceeds the ACS gross-rent measure"},{"body":"HUD FMR/SAFMR supplies an administrative bedroom-specific ladder, not an asking-rent survey. Applying that local ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled estimates from $1,255 for a studio to $2,128 for four bedrooms. The displayed bedroom figures are not measured bedroom rents, and their relationship to a HUD standard does not validate an individual asking price.","title":"Bedroom figures are ladder-scaled models"},{"body":"In the direct ZIP resale observation, 28 homes sold with a 13-day median marketing time, 17 inventory homes, and 1.9 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 100.49%, and 29.66% sold above list. These for-sale signals coexist with a year-over-year median price decline, so they should not be converted into rental comps or property-level economics.","title":"Direct resale signals show turnover without rental comparability"}],"risks":["ZORI is blended across rental types and reflects observed asking rents, so the current index cannot establish an advertised price, concessions, utility treatment, executed lease payment, or availability for a particular unit.","ACS estimates concern occupied renter homes within a statistical ZCTA and carry survey uncertainty; they do not identify current listings, individual household income, or whether a specific home's utilities are included.","Bedroom amounts are modelled from the ZIP index and HUD ladder. A different unit size, property type, utility package, lease structure, or listing date can make the standardized estimate unsuitable as a property-specific quote.","Redfin's rolling resale evidence has a limited number of transactions and belongs exclusively to the for-sale market. Price, supply, and sale-to-list indicators cannot verify rental demand, rent collections, or operating expenses."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The matched ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Consequently, the gap compares different populations, definitions, and observation methods; it does not identify a current lease payment.","q":"Why are ZORI and ACS median gross rent different?"},{"a":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent dataset. The figures are useful for a standardized screen, but they neither observe listings nor establish achieved rents for a particular bedroom count or property type.","q":"How should the bedroom figures be interpreted?"},{"a":"The 30% screen annualizes the $1,526 monthly ZIP ZORI and divides it by 30%, yielding $61,040 of required annual income. Compared with the ACS median household income of $81,652, the resulting asking-rent-to-income ratio is 22.43%. This is arithmetic for comparison only, not advice, a budget determination, or an applicant qualification rule.","q":"What does the required-income screen measure?"},{"a":"Redfin adds a separate direct ZIP for-sale observation, not rental evidence. Its $519,883 median sold price and resale pace indicators can be read alongside ZORI only as separate market evidence. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is a cross-source screen rather than a measure of property-level income, costs, cash flow, or a forward outcome.","q":"How does the Redfin evidence affect the rental reading?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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