The strongest tension in 14607 is between a weakening for-sale price reading and continued asking-rent growth. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,418 per month, 4.88% above its same-month prior reading. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-level rent roll or a sales measure. Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence, detailed below, records a year-over-year lower median price; that divergence is a cross-universe observation rather than evidence that either measure causes the other. Annualized ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price is 3.96%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. It excludes operating expenses, financing, taxes, vacancy, and unit-specific income.
The backward-looking Zillow history supplies a steadier counterpoint to that resale price decline. At the stated endpoint, exact same-month ZORI change annualizes to 4.88% over 1 year, 4.30% over 3 years, and 5.33% over 5 years. Recent direction therefore confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer positive path, although the latest pace is below the longest-horizon measure. The series has 100% coverage; annualized variability of monthly returns was 1.92%, and maximum drawdown was -1.28%. Those measurements support more confidence that the current index is part of a relatively continuous observed path rather than a snapshot following a large recorded fall, but they are not forecasts or investment recommendations. In transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranks 429, stability 91, and balanced performance 45; lower ranks are higher. These ranks are backward-looking discovery measurements, not outcome predictions.
A matched Census ZCTA supplies a deliberately different benchmark. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,156, and current ZORI was 22.7% higher. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; the supplied five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. ACS median gross rent measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is not asking rent. The supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is instead an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its two-bedroom figure is $1,573. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,006 for a studio, $1,132 for one bedroom, $1,418 for two bedrooms, $1,708 for three bedrooms, and $1,878 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
The affordability screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Applying a 30% share of income to the current ZORI produces required annual income of $56,720. Against ACS median household income of $59,787, the asking-rent-to-income arithmetic is 28.5%. This comparison cannot assign affordability to a household because income, utility inclusion, rent concessions, household size, and the actual unit may differ from both benchmarks. Separately, within the ACS survey universe, 42.1% of renter households had gross-rent burdens at or above the screen’s threshold. That is an ACS survey measurement of occupied renter households, not proof that a particular tenant is burdened, a specific unit will be affordable, or an applicant can qualify. It is a second, broader lens that should remain separate from the ZORI income calculation.
Housing-stock evidence further limits what can be inferred about a listing. The matched ACS ZCTA counted 12,268 housing units, an 8.97% vacancy rate, and renter occupancy equal to 81.7% of occupied homes. Large multifamily structures are present in the survey stock alongside single-family structures, but the broad counts do not identify bedroom mix, condition, lease terms, or present price at an address. The survey is not a live availability feed, and a vacant-for-rent classification must not be treated as proof that a particular unit is vacant, habitable, listed, or affordable. Nor does the ZCTA count establish a building’s operating vacancy or a prospective renter’s experience. Its multi-year survey timing and statistical geography make it useful for context, not unit-level confirmation.
Wider-area context places the ZIP index below several named comparators without turning them into ZIP data: Rochester city context has an asking-rent value of $1,532, Monroe County context has $1,578, and Rochester, NY metro context has $1,580. These city, county, and metro figures are context only, not estimates for this ZIP, and their geographies and rental mixes cannot be merged with the direct ZIP index. The Rochester city context’s ACS gross-rent median is lower than the ZIP’s, while the Monroe County context’s is slightly higher, illustrating why asking-index and survey-rent measures should stay separate. The Rochester, NY metro context also has a wider-area for-sale supply measure that cannot replace Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation. These comparisons frame relative scale; they do not identify a local transaction, a household outcome, or a direction ahead.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation presents mixed liquidity signals within the for-sale universe. Median sold price was $429,903, down 9.49% year over year; 23 homes sold in a median 13 days. Inventory was 20 homes, up 36.18%, with 2.7 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 108.36%, and 72.8% of sales closed above list. These are resale pricing, inventory, and marketing measurements, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The falling median price and expanding inventory challenge a simple reading that rent history and resale pricing moved in parallel, while the short marketing time and above-list share confirm active transaction pace in this observation. Neither side of that tension establishes a future sale price, an actual lease rent, or the economics of an individual property.
Decision use therefore requires address-level verification before any metric is applied to a property. Confirm the exact advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, concessions, availability date, condition, and occupancy status; these determine whether the ZORI and modelled ladder are even relevant comparisons. For a purchase reference, confirm the listing history, actual sale record, list-price changes, property type, and whether the reported ZIP resale observation matches the address and transaction period. Do not substitute ACS burden or vacancy counts for a unit inspection, a tenant’s finances, or a building’s current rent roll, and do not substitute the screening ratio for operating analysis. The evidence documents separate historical, survey, administrative, asking-market, and resale lenses. Do the verified unit facts, the intended rent convention, and the actual transaction record align with the specific decision?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 ZORI was $1,418, 4.88% higher year over year, while the history showed positive same-month annualized change over all listed horizons. In contrast, Redfin’s median sold price fell 9.49%. This is the central tension: asking-rent and resale measures did not move together, and neither establishes causation, a forecast, or individual-property economics.","title":"Asking-rent growth and resale pricing diverged"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent, ZORI, and HUD serve different questions. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities; ZORI is a current typical asking-rent index; HUD is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. Scaling ZORI by HUD creates estimates across bedroom counts, but these are modelled values rather than measured rents for available apartments or homes.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"The arithmetic 30% income screen generates $56,720 from current ZORI, compared with ACS median household income of $59,787. Separately, 42.1% of ACS renter households reported gross-rent burden at or above the threshold. The first is a mechanical benchmark and the second is a survey measure; neither determines any tenant’s qualification or a particular unit’s affordability.","title":"Income arithmetic and rent burden are separate lenses"},{"body":"Direct ZIP Redfin resale data had 23 homes sold, 13 median days on market, 2.7 months of supply, and a 108.36% average sale-to-list ratio. Alongside a median price decline and inventory increase, those facts show mixed price and liquidity conditions within the resale universe. They are not rental transactions, rent comparables, or components of a property operating statement.","title":"Resale liquidity had mixed price and pace signals"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin sales have different timing, populations, and construction. Treating them as interchangeable unit-level rents or direct return measures can materially distort interpretation.","ACS ZCTA data summarize a statistical area over a multi-year survey window. Vacancy, renter burden, and stock counts cannot demonstrate that a named building or unit is currently available, habitable, affordable, or leased.","The Redfin observation covers only a rolling ZIP resale period and reports a limited number of sales. Its median price and liquidity signals can be sensitive to the mix and timing of those transactions.","Stable historical rent variability and a shallow drawdown describe the past series only. They do not protect against later changes in asking rents, sale prices, expenses, financing, or property conditions."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,418 June 2026 figure is Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a signed lease, an individual unit quote, an ACS gross-rent measure, or a HUD administrative standard. The shared label does not make the associated ZCTA identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling current ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, and the HUD FMR/SAFMR amounts are administrative standards rather than asking rent. A listing’s actual bedroom count, utilities, condition, concessions, and lease terms still require direct verification.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for 14607?"},{"a":"No. The screen simply divides an annualized asking-rent index by a fixed income share to show the income amount associated with that arithmetic. It does not assess an applicant’s complete circumstances, a household’s utility responsibility, concessions, or any local qualification standard. The ACS burden percentage describes surveyed renter households, not an individual applicant or unit.","q":"Does the 30% figure determine tenant qualification?"},{"a":"Redfin’s direct rolling resale observation showed a declining median sold price and higher inventory while sales moved rapidly and frequently above list. That is a mixed for-sale signal, not a rental result. It can be set beside ZORI history as a cross-source tension, but it cannot establish a future price, lease rent, cap rate, or property-specific economics.","q":"How should the resale data be reconciled with the rent history?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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