June 2026 opens with an asking-rent reading that stands above its wider context: Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI is $1,738 per month, compared with the $1,532.16 City of Rochester context index, the $1,578 Monroe County context index, and the $1,580 Rochester, NY metro context index. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography context only, not substitutes for a ZIP reading. The 14620 label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not the quoted rent, condition, or availability of any particular home.
The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey supplies a distinctly different rent universe: median gross rent is $1,266, making the current Zillow reading 37.3% higher. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while ZORI reflects a typical asking-rent index rather than settled household rents. The difference therefore should not be read as a contradiction or as a direct measure of a listing-level premium. Timing, occupied-versus-advertised unit status, rental-type mix, and utility treatment all differ between the sources, so each figure answers a separate rental question.
History shows continued growth with a slower recent pace than the extended record. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 5.03% over one year, 4.77% over three years, and 7.04% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, while moderating relative to the five-year pace. Annualized volatility of monthly returns was 3.33%, and maximum drawdown was -1.81%. Coverage was 100%, supporting confidence that the historical series was fully observed, but the measured variability means one current index snapshot is an endpoint rather than a fixed market level. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 347 for momentum, 2,070 for stability, and 765 for the balanced measure, where a lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder serves a different purpose again: it is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Its local two-bedroom standard is $1,573. Scaling ZIP ZORI using that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,233 for a studio, $1,388 for a one-bedroom, $1,738 for a two-bedroom, $2,094 for a three-bedroom, and $2,301 for a four-bedroom. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The index-aligned two-bedroom amount is a scaling anchor within the model, not an independently observed two-bedroom asking-rent series. A building's actual bedroom pricing can depart from the ladder because the ladder does not observe individual listings.
The required-income screen sharpens the gap between the current asking index and area income without deciding affordability for any household. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the $1,738 index produces required annual income of $69,520, above the matched ZCTA median household income of $61,783. A simple annualized comparison places the ZIP asking index at 33.8% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS estimates that 4,138 of 8,745 renter households, or 47.3%, had rent burdens at or above the same threshold. That survey burden estimate cannot prove the payment burden, utility treatment, income, or lease terms of a particular unit.
The aggregate ACS stock snapshot records 13,432 housing units, an 8.0% vacancy rate, and 502 units classified as vacant for rent. Renter occupancy accounts for 70.8% of occupied homes, consistent with a ZIP where renter-household measures are especially relevant to the survey picture. These are stock and classification counts rather than a live leasing feed. They do not identify which vacant homes are marketed now, their bedroom counts, their asking prices, or whether their terms resemble the ZORI index. Vacancy also cannot establish that any particular home is available, suitable, or priced near a ZIP-level measure.
The practical limit is comparability across a ZIP index, a ZCTA survey, and a HUD administrative ladder. Property-level checks should reconcile the advertised base rent and availability date with ZORI's asking-rent scope; verify bedroom count against the modelled category; identify utilities included in the lease versus ACS gross rent; and review stated lease term, deposits, fees, furnishing status, and the address's ZIP delivery and ZCTA assignment. These checks test whether the source measures are comparable, not whether a property is desirable. Does the actual listing preserve the price, utility treatment, and bedroom assumptions needed for a valid comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow places the current ZIP asking-rent index above city, county, and metro context readings, while the matched ACS survey median is materially lower. This is a source-scope contrast, not a contradiction: ZORI blends current observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS describes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period and includes selected utilities.","title":"Current asking index exceeds survey rent"},{"body":"Same-month history remains positive at every reported horizon. The latest annual pace is above the intermediate pace but below the extended pace, supporting a continuing upward historical path with moderation relative to the longer record. Complete coverage improves confidence that the series was observed throughout, although volatility and drawdown still limit what any single endpoint can establish.","title":"Growth remains positive but has moderated"},{"body":"HUD supplies a bedroom-specific administrative ladder, and the ZIP bedroom amounts are scaled from ZORI using that local relationship. They create a consistent internal comparison across bedroom categories, but they are modelled estimates rather than observed rents. The amount aligned with the index's anchor category should not be read as a measured two-bedroom asking-rent series.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Area income and burden information provide context but not a household determination. The required-income calculation exceeds area median income, while the survey reports a substantial share of renter households with elevated rent burden. Aggregate stock also contains a renter majority and an identifiable vacant-for-rent count. None of these facts proves that a particular apartment is affordable, available, or inclusive of a particular utility package.","title":"Income and burden data remain aggregate"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD standards address different universes and periods; treating them as interchangeable can either overstate or understate the rent comparison relevant to an individual lease.","The bedroom figures are ratios applied to a blended ZIP index, so a particular building's unit mix, utility treatment, condition, fees, and listing timing may differ materially from the modelled amount.","The complete historical record still measures past index behavior only. It does not establish future asking rents, a property's rent path, or an investment outcome when a current reading is only one endpoint.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are aggregate survey categories rather than live inventory or tenant records; neither can demonstrate availability, affordability, or payment burden for a particular home."],"qa":[{"a":"The two figures do not observe the same universe. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical asking-rent index across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA survey measure of occupied renter homes over multiple years, and its gross-rent concept includes selected utilities. Timing, unit mix, occupancy status, and utility treatment all differ.","q":"Why does Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"Each bedroom amount starts with ZIP ZORI and applies the relative pattern in the provided local HUD bedroom ladder. This creates a consistent modelled set across the supplied categories, but it does not observe advertised units by bedroom count. The equal two-bedroom model value reflects the scaling anchor, not an independently measured two-bedroom market rent.","q":"How are the bedroom estimates constructed?"},{"a":"No. The required income is computed by annualizing the ZIP index and dividing it by the stated share of income. It simply shows the income amount that makes that arithmetic work. It is not a recommendation, a lease underwriting standard, an affordability determination for a household, or an applicant qualification rule.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether someone qualifies?"},{"a":"The history record and vacancy classification are aggregate backward-looking evidence, not property facts. A listing should be checked for its current base rent, precise bedroom count, utility inclusion, availability date, lease terms, deposits and fees, and whether its address aligns with the relevant geographic label. Those checks determine comparability better than an aggregate index alone.","q":"What should be checked before comparing a listing with these figures?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1197.628379},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1227.025826},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1232.990542},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1236.487583},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1220.7552},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1214.42281},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1220.01761},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1237.348807},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1254.446819},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1281.327541},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1290.015283},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1297.166599},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1283.692461},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1281.827202},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1307.836567},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1338.524377},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1360.987554},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1360.70655},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1377.745456},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1397.330754},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1422.119751},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1427.442311},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1435.419787},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1437.911569},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1448.937673},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1442.881698},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1453.441079},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1452.825213},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1467.645796},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1492.756502},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1511.23363},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1511.547817},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1500.424565},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1487.761491},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1499.78882},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1525.827257},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1552.815053},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1581.799574},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1560.398932},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1575.318003},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1577.641747},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1593.880613},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1587.511633},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1586.35619},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1585.717855},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1592.371414},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1595.422858},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1600.880909},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1637.454608},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1641.281109},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1658.336634},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1643.064852},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1669.738629},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1664.719525},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1653.514144},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1655.086524},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1670.781676},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1685.798501},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1691.183903},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1688.917965},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1660.609802},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1661.239315},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1672.458601},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1693.215482},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1685.556397},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1694.26367},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1720.305329},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1738.41706}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1655.086524,"endRent":1738.41706,"change":0.05034814482001049,"cagr":0.05034814482001049},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1511.547817,"endRent":1738.41706,"change":0.1500906821791932,"cagr":0.04771709064257057},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1237.348807,"endRent":1738.41706,"change":0.4049531144050311,"cagr":0.07036615014987802}},"maxDrawdown":-0.01807851940038252,"annualizedVolatility":0.03328408707060622,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}