At the June 2026 reading, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 19121 is $1,628 per month, a 4.47% year-over-year rise. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a lease-specific quote. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The Philadelphia city context and Philadelphia County context each have rent figures rounding to $1,814, while the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD metro context is $1,928. Those city, county, and metro measures are wider-area context only, not substitutes for the ZIP observation.
The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey places median gross rent at $1,187. It surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is neither Zillow’s current asking index nor an estimate of a newly advertised unit. The asking index is 37.2% above that survey median, a source-universe contrast rather than proof of a change in any one home. ACS reports median household income of $38,516. Under a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current monthly asking figure arithmetically requires $65,120 of annual income. Separately, annualized asking rent equals 50.7% of the reported median income. The screen boundary means income at or above that amount places this rent at no more than the threshold; it is arithmetic, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a conclusion about a household’s capacity.
HUD supplies a third, separate universe. The supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its two-bedroom figure is $1,570. Applying that local ladder’s proportions to ZORI produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,255 for a studio, $1,369 for one bedroom, $1,628 for two bedrooms, $1,949 for three bedrooms, and $2,178 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents, because they scale one blended ZIP asking-rent index with HUD relationships. They can organize a bedroom comparison, but they do not identify an actual listing’s condition, utilities, lease terms, or rent.
The backward Zillow history is stable growth, not a forecast: the exact same-month annualized changes were 4.47% in the 1-year window, 4.36% in the 3-year window, and 3.53% in the 5-year window. The latest direction therefore modestly confirms, rather than reverses, the longer path. Its 138 observations provide 100% coverage through June 2026, giving a complete available monthly series rather than a projection. Annualized variability in monthly returns is 2.65%, which supports measured confidence in the broad direction but not false precision in one current snapshot. Separately, the 3.94% maximum drawdown marks the deepest recorded peak-to-trough decline. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 479 for momentum, 975 for stability, and 293 for the balanced score; lower ranks are stronger. They organize past measurements only and offer no investment recommendation.
ACS stock classifications show more single-family units than units in large multifamily structures. The ZCTA’s 13.5% vacancy rate and 68.1% renter share describe a renter-heavy survey housing base, not a real-time count of available homes. Within the vacant stock, 355 units are classified as vacant for rent. That classification does not establish a particular home’s condition, actual availability, or comparability. Among renter households, 54.0% report spending 30% or more of income on gross rent. This burden measure reflects surveyed renter homes, whereas the current asking index tracks a different universe. Neither the burden share nor vacancy categories prove pressure or affordability for a particular unit.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a for-sale market record, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $235,847, up 0.42% year over year; 77 homes sold, and median marketing time was 74 days. Inventory was 286 homes, 33.02% higher than a year earlier, with 11.2 months of supply. Its sale-to-list signals were a 98.89% average sale-to-list ratio, a 30.7% sold-above-list share, and a 23.56% share going off market within two weeks. The combination of transaction count, marketing time, inventory, and supply describes ZIP resale liquidity only. Relative to the steadier rent history, the nearly flat price change and reported supply challenge any simple reading of rent strength as a uniform market signal.
Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price creates an 8.28% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio: not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The sharp difference between rent movement and much flatter resale-price movement does not resolve the income screen or burden measure, because each source addresses a different population or transaction universe. It instead flags a decision tension: past rent momentum and a current asking index coexist with resale evidence that does not show matching price acceleration. No ratio here measures property-level economics or predicts an outcome.
The limits are material. ZORI remains blended across rental types, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale window. ACS estimates also carry survey margins of error. A property-level review would need the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities included, lease term, concessions, condition, and present availability rather than an area average. For a resale comparison, relevant checks include property type, closing date, listing history, and whether sale-to-list and marketing-time evidence pertains to the same kind of home. Those checks preserve the difference between source universes; neither a survey vacancy category nor a burden statistic establishes facts about one unit. The packet supplies backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or a substitute for those checks.
","findings":[{"body":"At the June reading, ZIP ZORI was $1,628, while Philadelphia city and county asking-rent contexts rounded to $1,814 and the metro context was $1,928. That relative discount does not offset the local income screen: annualized asking rent equals 50.7% of ACS median household income. The city, county, and metro figures are comparison context, while ZORI and ACS describe separate ZIP/ZCTA evidence universes.","title":"Asking rent is below broad context but difficult against local income"},{"body":"Across exact same-month windows, ZORI annualized growth measured 4.47%, 4.36%, and 3.53% over one, three, and five years. The recent pace therefore extends the record’s upward direction. Full coverage and 138 observations strengthen historical completeness, but 2.65% variability and a 3.94% drawdown keep the current reading backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"Historical path favors continuity over a recent break"},{"body":"The HUD two-bedroom administrative standard is $1,570, while the ZIP ZORI is a blended asking-rent index. Scaling ZORI by the HUD bedroom ladder gives the stated studio-through-four-bedroom figures, but those are modelled estimates rather than observed bedroom rents. Actual unit rent may differ because the model has no unit-specific lease, utilities, condition, or listing details.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record showed a $235,847 median sold price, 77 homes sold, and 11.2 months of supply. Its 0.42% price change was far quieter than the rent series’ recent movement. Because it records for-sale activity, this evidence describes resale liquidity rather than rental transactions and cannot validate ZORI or a property’s economics.","title":"Resale evidence does not mirror rent momentum"}],"risks":["Zillow’s blended asking-rent index, the ACS gross-rent survey, HUD’s bedroom standards, and Redfin resale results use different universes, periods, and unit concepts; direct substitution can misstate a property-specific conclusion.","Median income and rent-burden shares are ACS ZCTA household statistics with survey uncertainty. They indicate area-level arithmetic pressure but cannot determine a particular renter’s income, eligibility, utility obligation, or payment outcome.","Vacant-for-rent classifications and the overall vacancy rate are survey measures rather than a live availability feed. They do not establish current condition, asking price, lease terms, or marketability of any specific unit.","Redfin’s rolling resale window may contain a mix of property types and sale situations unlike the rental index. The rent-price screening ratio omits property-level economics and must not be interpreted as return."],"qa":[{"a":"The ACS matched ZCTA measure is a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP asking-rent index blended across rental types. The ZCTA is a statistical geography, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so period, geography, and measurement concepts all differ.","q":"Why should the ACS rent not be treated as the current advertised rent?"},{"a":"It means the $1,628 ZIP ZORI was scaled using local HUD bedroom-standard proportions to create comparative studio through four-bedroom figures. The result is not a measured rent for a bedroom class, and it says nothing about the actual unit’s condition, utility treatment, lease structure, or advertised availability.","q":"What does a modelled bedroom estimate mean here?"},{"a":"The calculation divides annualized current ZORI by 30%, producing $65,120 as the gross income boundary at which the index would equal that share of income. It is arithmetic only. It is not advice, a rental application standard, an affordability finding for any household, or a prediction of payment performance.","q":"How should the 30% required-income screen be read?"},{"a":"Redfin adds direct ZIP for-sale evidence on sold prices, transactions, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior over its rolling-three-month window. It helps expose a tension between rent growth and flatter resale-price movement, but it is not rental-comp evidence and cannot turn the 8.28% screening ratio into a cap rate or yield.","q":"What does Redfin add to the ZIP rental evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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