ZIP 19134 presents an affordability tension before any comparison with the resale market. The current Zillow ZORI is $1,452 per month. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-level quote or an owner-cost measure. At a 30% required-income screen, that monthly figure translates arithmetically to $58,080 of annual income, compared with the matched ACS ZCTA median household income of $44,066. The index therefore equals 39.5% of that annual median income when annualized. This is a screen, not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence about the affordability of a particular home.
Scale changes the reading, but it does not erase the income tension. In the City of Philadelphia context, Zillow's rent figure is $1,814; in Philadelphia County context, it is also $1,814; and in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD metro context, it is $1,928. Each is a wider-area benchmark rather than a ZIP rental comp, and the local index sits below all three. The metro context's 25.4% rent-to-income measure is lower than the ZIP arithmetic screen. These differences describe geographic context only; they do not explain why rents differ or indicate what a specific listing will command.
The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $1,174 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, and that measure includes selected utilities. Current ZORI is 23.7% above that survey median, but the gap is not a contradiction: a survey median for occupied homes and a current asking-rent index observe different universes. In a third universe, the FY2026 local HUD two-bedroom FMR is $1,530. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
Bedroom detail is modelled rather than observed in this packet. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,120 for a studio, $1,224 for one bedroom, $1,452 for two bedrooms, $1,737 for three bedrooms, and $1,945 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom modelled estimate equals overall ZORI by construction because the ladder uses the local two-bedroom HUD benchmark as its base. These modelled estimates use HUD's relative bedroom standards to allocate one all-type asking-rent index; they are not measured bedroom rents, lease quotes, or HUD FMRs themselves. Actual unit characteristics remain outside this model.
The matched ACS ZCTA supplies structural context, not a current listing count. It reports a 13.6% vacancy rate, with equal ACS classifications of vacant-for-rent and vacant-for-sale units at 438 each. Those classifications do not establish availability, condition, or price for a particular home. Renters account for 45.7% of occupied units, while 51.8% of renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above the screen threshold. That survey burden measure cannot prove a burden for a specific prospective tenancy. The stock includes 22,157 single-family units but only 290 units in large multifamily structures, a composition measure rather than a bedroom-rent comparison.
Past ZORI shows a stable but slowing growth path. Exact same-month annualized changes through June 2026 were 3.45% over one year, 4.02% over three years, and 4.60% over five years. Recent direction therefore breaks from the faster longer-run pace, although it does not reverse it. Annualized monthly-return variability came in at 2.56%, indicating limited month-to-month dispersion in the observed record. Maximum drawdown reached -1.99%, a shallow peak-to-trough historical decline. Data coverage was 99.2%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 691 for momentum, 814 for stability, and 351 for balanced performance; lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements support confidence in record continuity, not a forecast, investment recommendation, or guarantee for one current rent snapshot.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June 30, 2026 belongs to a separate for-sale universe. The median sold price was $179,959, up 20.0% from a year earlier. It recorded 171 homes sold, with a median 49 days on market, an inventory count of 404 homes, and 7.2 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 97.1%, while 21.7% of sales closed above list. These are direct ZIP resale liquidity, price, and marketing signals, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property operating results. Neither marketing time nor sale-to-list behavior identifies whether a rental unit is available or what its lease would cost.
The resale evidence challenges a simple extension of the rent, history, and affordability screen: the reported resale price increase was far faster than the one-year ZORI increase, even as ZIP rent absorbs a larger share of the ZCTA income median than the metro context. Supply and sale-to-list signals remain resale evidence and cannot resolve that mismatch. Annualizing ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the direct median sold price yields a 9.7% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. No property-level income or cost data enter that arithmetic. Property-specific interpretation still requires checks of actual bedroom count and condition against the modelled estimates, utilities and lease terms, listing status, and completed-sale details.
","findings":[{"body":"The current $1,452 ZORI produces a $58,080 annual income figure under the 30% arithmetic screen, exceeding the ZCTA's $44,066 median household income. The 39.5% income share is an area-level affordability tension. It is not an eligibility test and cannot establish affordability, rent, or utility responsibility for an individual household.","title":"Income screen exceeds the ZCTA median"},{"body":"Same-month ZORI gains slowed from annualized 4.60% across five years to 3.45% over the most recent year, although they remained positive. Low 2.56% annualized monthly-return variability and a -1.99% maximum drawdown support a relatively continuous past index path. Those measures are historical descriptions, not predictions.","title":"Rent growth has slowed, not reversed"},{"body":"Redfin's ZIP-only rolling-three-month resale record combines a $179,959 median sold price and a 20.0% annual price change with 171 recorded sales. Its 7.2 months of supply and 97.1% average sale-to-list signal describe sale listings and completed resale activity only. They neither price rental transactions nor validate the rent-to-price screening ratio.","title":"Resale appreciation and rent growth do not move in lockstep"},{"body":"ACS reports a 13.6% vacancy rate, 45.7% renter occupancy, and 51.8% of renter households with gross-rent burden at or above the screen threshold. The housing stock is predominantly single-family by count. These structural ZCTA survey observations provide context for rental exposure but do not show availability, condition, or tenant costs for a particular unit.","title":"Stock and burden are structural context"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR describe different populations, timing, and purposes. Comparing their dollar levels without their definitions can create a false conclusion that one source is wrong.","The required-income screen and ZCTA burden share are area-level arithmetic and survey observations. Neither identifies household income, utilities, concessions, rent, or eligibility for any specific unit.","Vacancy classifications and housing-structure counts come from ACS five-year data, so they cannot establish current availability, condition, bedroom mix, or marketability of an individual listing.","Redfin resale figures are rolling-three-month for-sale measurements. The annualized-rent-to-price screen omits property-specific terms and must not be treated as a cap rate, net return, or forecast."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI summarizes typical current observed asking rents across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. A difference can therefore reflect timing, units observed, and included costs; it is not evidence that either series measures the same lease.","q":"Why does current ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The ladder begins with one all-type ZIP ZORI and scales it according to local HUD bedroom FMR relationships. Because the two-bedroom HUD benchmark is the base, that modelled estimate equals overall ZORI by construction. It is not an observed median for signed or advertised two-bedroom leases, and it contains no unit-condition adjustment.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"Same-month history avoids comparing different seasonal months. The slowing one-year growth rate says recent index growth was less rapid than its three- and five-year annualized paths. Variability, drawdown, and coverage help assess stability of the past series, but they cannot predict future rents or provide a unit-specific pricing range.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current snapshot?"},{"a":"No. Redfin records direct ZIP resale outcomes over a rolling three-month period, including sold prices, sales counts, marketing time, inventory, and sale-to-list outcomes. That is useful for observing the for-sale universe, but it cannot identify a rental property's income, expenses, lease terms, financing, or current rental availability. The cross-source ratio remains screening arithmetic only.","q":"Do Redfin resale data establish rental economics for a property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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