At $2,063 in June 2026, the ZIP-level Zillow ZORI sits 13.5% above the matched ZCTA's $1,818 ACS median gross rent. That difference is the central measured tension in 19146: the current asking-rent index exceeds the occupied-renter-home survey benchmark, while the ZIP's aggregate rent-burden rate is lower than Philadelphia city context. The figures do not establish what any particular listing costs or includes, but they do separate a live asking-rent signal from a slower survey measure of households already occupying homes.
The longer Zillow history points to steady, backward-looking rent growth rather than a recent break from its prior path. The one-year exact same-month annualized change was 4.8%, compared with 3.8% over three years and 4.7% over five years; recent direction therefore broadly confirms the five-year path and runs faster than the three-year measure. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.1%, a relatively limited fluctuation measure that supports more confidence in a single current index reading than a highly erratic series would. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 1.9%, indicating the largest historical decline was modest. Coverage was 100% across 138 observations. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum placed 525th, stability 177th, and the balanced measure 76th, where lower ranks are stronger. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 19146 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a census of every available unit. For wider context in the same June 2026 period, Philadelphia city context rent was about $1,814, Philadelphia County context rent was also about $1,814, and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD metro context rent was $1,928; each is a wider-geography comparison, not a ZIP substitute. The ZIP index therefore stands above all three contextual rent figures, but that comparison does not make those broader values local rental comps.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces estimates of $1,594 for a studio, $1,735 for one bedroom, $2,063 for two bedrooms, $2,470 for three bedrooms, and $2,762 for four bedrooms. The local HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,330, putting the ZIP ZORI at 88.5% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, so this ladder is useful for consistently sizing the all-type index but cannot verify the rent, condition, utility package, or availability of an individual bedroom category.
Affordability indicators are more restrained than the elevated asking-rent-versus-ACS comparison alone suggests. Median household income was $103,059, while the arithmetic income associated with spending 30% of income on the current monthly ZORI was $82,520; annualized ZORI equals 24.0% of that income measure. This 30% screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS five-year survey of occupied renter homes, which includes selected utilities in gross rent, 3,805 of 9,504 renter households, or 40.0%, reported paying at least 30% of income toward rent, below the 52.3% Philadelphia city-context share. The median-gross-rent margin of error was $75 and the burdened-household margin of error was 495, so the burden comparison is an aggregate signal with survey uncertainty, not proof about a given lease.
Housing-stock evidence adds another constraint on how far the rent index can be generalized. The matched ZCTA contained 22,365 housing units and had a 12.9% vacancy rate. Renter households represented 48.8% of occupied households, while the structure mix included 15,687 single-family units and 2,563 units in large multifamily buildings. There were 698 vacant homes classified as for rent, but that category does not establish the number, quality, price, bedroom count, or immediate availability of listings comparable with Zillow ZORI. Likewise, aggregate vacancy is not evidence that a particular property will be easy to lease or that a specific unit has no competing supply.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes a different market universe: for-sale transactions, not rental transactions. The median sold price was $505,886, up 6.5% year over year, with 246 homes sold and a median 45 days on market. Inventory was 291 homes and months of supply measured 3.6. Sale-to-list signals were measured in the same resale universe: the average sale-to-list ratio was 98.6%, and 25.1% of sales closed above list price. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 4.9% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Rising resale prices and the positive rent-history readings align directionally, yet below-list average sale terms and available supply challenge any simple reading of uniformly aggressive market conditions.
Several source limits remain material. Zillow supplies a blended asking-rent index; ACS supplies a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities; HUD supplies administrative standards; and Redfin supplies direct ZIP resale observations. None identifies lease renewals, concessions, unit condition, listing status, or the operating costs behind a home sale. Property-level review can therefore reconcile the advertised contract rent, included utilities, bedroom configuration, availability date, concessions, active competing listings, and the distinction between a listed asking rent and a completed resale. The evidence supports a measured comparison of current rent, historical stability, aggregate affordability, stock, and resale liquidity, but not a conclusion about a specific unit's economics.
","findings":[{"body":"The one-year rent change exceeded the three-year measure and closely matched the five-year measure, so recent direction confirms rather than reverses the longer observed path. Limited variability and a modest maximum drawdown improve confidence that the current ZORI is not an isolated spike. Those history results remain backward-looking ZIP index measurements, not predictions of future rents.","title":"Stable rent path with limited historical disruption"},{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI is above ACS median gross rent, reflecting two non-interchangeable evidence universes. ZORI represents a typical blended asking-rent index, whereas ACS gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference is informative for screening, but it cannot be interpreted as a direct markup on the same units.","title":"Asking rent exceeds the occupied-home survey benchmark"},{"body":"The required-income screen places current ZORI below the area's reported median household income when calculated at a 30% spending share. The ZIP's reported share of renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent is also below Philadelphia city context. Survey margins of error and household-level differences prevent that aggregate pattern from establishing affordability for any one renter or property.","title":"Aggregate affordability is less strained than city context"},{"body":"Redfin records direct ZIP resale activity, including completed sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. Price growth aligns with the positive rent-history direction, while supply and below-list average sale terms add a counterweight to a purely tight-market interpretation. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and contains no property expense information.","title":"Resale evidence is active but not a rental-comp substitute"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended asking-rent index rather than a record of a particular available unit, so advertised condition, utilities, concessions, and bedroom count can diverge materially.","ACS ZCTA estimates are survey-based five-year measures with published margins of error, and the statistical ZCTA geography does not exactly match a USPS delivery ZIP.","The bedroom ladder mechanically scales ZIP ZORI using HUD standards, so its bedroom figures are modelled estimates and cannot replace direct unit-level asking-rent observations.","Redfin resale measures describe for-sale transactions rather than rentals; sold prices and the rent-price screening ratio omit financing, taxes, insurance, repairs, operations, and lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"The 19146 label functions as Zillow's ZIP market identifier and is matched to a Census ZCTA for ACS data. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area built to approximate ZIP geography, while a USPS delivery ZIP is an operational mail-delivery construct. Their overlap makes comparison useful, but they are not identical geographic universes.","q":"Why does the report distinguish the ZCTA from the ZIP label?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the all-type ZIP Zillow ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease transactions, or listing medians. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard, not an asking-rent data feed for individual available units.","q":"Are the bedroom rents direct measurements of available apartments?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical calculation showing the income associated with allocating 30% of income to the current monthly Zillow ZORI. It is not financial advice, a household budget, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability depends on the specific lease amount, income definition, utilities, debts, household size, and other costs not supplied here.","q":"What does the 30% income screen mean?"},{"a":"Redfin provides a direct rolling-three-month observation of ZIP for-sale activity, including sold price, transaction count, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It can frame resale liquidity alongside rental indicators, but it is not rental-comp evidence. The annualized ZORI-to-sold-price ratio is a cross-source screen only and does not measure property-level return.","q":"How should the Redfin resale figures be used with the rental data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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