In ZIP 19801, the central tension is that the current Zillow asking-rent signal sits far above the matched survey gross-rent measure, even as it nearly matches wider Zillow context. In June 2026, Zillow's Observed Rent Index is $1,880 per month. The five-digit label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level price. As wider context only, Wilmington city's Zillow rent is $1,872, New Castle County's Zillow rent is $1,940, and the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD metro's Zillow rent is $1,928. Those city, county, and metro values frame the ZIP result but cannot substitute for it.
The matched ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA survey places median gross rent at $1,192; the current ZORI is therefore 57.7% higher. That difference is a source-universe gap, not a contradiction. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes, and median gross rent includes selected utilities; ZORI is an asking-rent index whose rental-type blend and current observation period differ. The ZCTA median household income is $52,810. Applying a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen to the monthly asking index produces required annual income of $75,200, or 42.7% of the reported median income. This screen is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule; it only displays the calculation using the supplied income and rent inputs.
HUD supplies a separate administrative universe. The supplied FY2026 local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder, whether ZIP SAFMR or county-derived, is a bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Its two-bedroom standard is $1,610. Scaling ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder gives modelled monthly ZIP estimates, not measured bedroom rents, of $1,448, $1,576, $1,880, $2,254, and $2,522 from studio through four bedrooms, in that order. The estimates are a transparent scaling exercise that keeps the ZIP index consistent across sizes, but they cannot establish an actual unit's price, utility arrangement, availability, or physical characteristics.
Recent rent growth is still positive, but it is slower than the longer backward-looking record. Exact same-month ZORI changes, annualized through the stated endpoint, are 4.33% over one year, 4.57% over three years, and 6.25% over five years. Thus, the latest direction continues upward yet breaks from the faster annual pace embedded in the longer intervals; it does not establish an acceleration. History coverage is 100%, while annualized monthly-return variability is 3.67% and the maximum drawdown was -6.05%. The supplied transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 480 for momentum, 2,396 for stability, and 1,173 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. The high-variability designation and drawdown mean a single current rent snapshot deserves less confidence as a stable reference point. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
ACS describes a renter-heavy housing stock that includes both single-family and large-multifamily units, rather than a listing inventory. The ZCTA vacancy rate is 13.4%. Renter households number 5,658 and account for 69.4% of occupied homes. At the ACS 30%-or-more burden threshold, 44.6% of renter households were burdened, and 227 vacant units were classified as for rent. These are area-level ACS counts and shares, not evidence that an individual apartment is vacant, affordable, or burdened. They show the tenure and survey-burden backdrop against which the asking index should be read, including the possibility that survey stock and current advertised supply are not the same.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a distinct for-sale universe, not rental transactions. Redfin reports a median sold price of $224,949, up 9.5% year over year, from 59 homes sold with a median 63 days on market. Reported inventory is 60 homes and months of supply is 3.1. The average sale-to-list result is 97.5%, and 19.3% of sales closed above list, so both signals belong only to ZIP resale marketing and closing activity. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is 10.0%, solely a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property-level economics. Resale-price growth outpaced the latest rent-growth measurement, yet below-list average closings and the reported marketing time challenge any simple reading of the rent index or ACS vacancy as proof of uniformly urgent market conditions. The data neither link a sold home to a rental unit nor establish a causal relationship between these separate series.
Comparisons must remain scope-specific. The Wilmington city, New Castle County, and named metropolitan rents are wider Zillow context only; their boundaries and unit mixes are not the ZIP result. ACS uses the matched ZCTA statistical area and a survey window, HUD uses an administrative standard, and Redfin records direct ZIP resales over a rolling period. These sources therefore answer different questions: current typical asking-rent conditions, occupied-household gross rent and burden, standardized bedroom benchmarks, and completed for-sale market activity. Their time windows, covered homes, utility treatment, and definitions differ. No source in this packet measures the rent, expenses, condition, or transaction terms of a particular property, and no geographic aggregate resolves that missing property-level evidence.
A property-level interpretation requires direct verification of the advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, concessions, deposits and fees, availability date, and the unit's condition. If sale information is relevant, it also requires confirmation of the subject address, sale date, closing terms, and whether the resale record refers to the same property being evaluated. Those checks distinguish an actual unit from an index, a survey statistic, an administrative standard, or a resale median. The central unresolved question is whether the specific property's documented terms resemble the ZIP's current asking-rent signal without assuming that any area-wide affordability, vacancy, or resale measure answers it.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 19801's $1,880 ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index, while the ACS ZCTA's $1,192 median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The 57.7% gap reflects different timing, covered homes, and definitions rather than a contradiction. It does not show that a particular available unit must command either figure, and the income comparison remains descriptive arithmetic.","title":"Current ask sits above survey gross rent"},{"body":"Through the stated endpoint, same-month annualized ZORI growth was positive at every reported horizon, but the latest 4.33% pace trailed the three- and five-year rates. Full history coverage does not remove the relevance of 3.67% annualized monthly-return variability or the 6.05% maximum drawdown. The national discovery ranks therefore indicate stronger momentum than stability and remain backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"History remains positive but is not stable"},{"body":"ACS shows a renter-majority occupancy base, material rent-burden incidence, and a vacancy measure that covers the entire ZCTA housing stock. Large-multifamily and single-family units both appear in that stock. These are aggregate survey results, not an inventory feed: neither the vacant-for-rent count nor burden share proves availability, pricing, or financial stress for a particular property.","title":"Renter exposure and burden are material"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale series reports higher median sold prices year over year, but sales took 63 days at the median and average sale-to-list was below par. The 10.0% annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio. It cannot represent a property's costs, financing, taxes, condition, lease performance, or resale outcome, and it must not be treated as a property-economics measure.","title":"Resale prices rose, but liquidity signals are mixed"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD standards, and Redfin resales have different populations, timing, and definitions. Combining them as though they were interchangeable unit-level comparables could materially distort interpretation.","The high-variability history includes a meaningful past drawdown despite positive trailing changes. A current index observation can be informative without establishing persistence, future direction, or stability for a specific unit.","ACS vacancy, renter share, and burden are ZCTA survey aggregates with sampling uncertainty and a multiyear reference period. They cannot demonstrate that a named property is vacant, affordable, occupied, or financially stressed.","Redfin resale indicators describe completed or marketed for-sale homes, not rental transactions. The rent-to-price screen omits property expenses, financing, lease terms, and other facts needed for any property-specific economic interpretation."],"qa":[{"a":"They capture different evidence universes. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why do ZORI and ACS median gross rent differ in this report?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the single ZORI value with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The exercise preserves a relative size ladder but cannot measure a unit's actual rent, utility treatment, condition, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The history is fully covered in the supplied observation window and shows positive annualized changes at the one-, three-, and five-year horizons. However, the latest pace is below the longer-horizon rates, while annualized monthly-return variability is elevated and a past drawdown occurred. That combination makes the snapshot informative but less suitable as a stable standalone reference; it provides no forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current reading?"},{"a":"Only a cross-source screening relationship: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the direct ZIP median sold price in Redfin's rolling resale observation. It does not use a matched rental property or identify expenses, financing, ownership, condition, lease terms, or transaction details. Therefore it cannot describe property-level economics, and Redfin's other measures remain signals from the for-sale market rather than rental transactions.","q":"What can the Redfin rent-to-price screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1091.888182},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1104.832133},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1086.213808},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1072.083952},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1071.277455},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1063.566042},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1074.101404},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1077.749601},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1098.37298},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1112.153236},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1137.982011},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1136.127566},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1142.953589},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1155.973296},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1162.078509},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1143.933916},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1134.594102},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1139.24698},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1151.09114},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1175.347653},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1179.276123},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1190.02956},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1185.492086},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1182.305706},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1182.198238},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1173.076185},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1176.695145},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1198.100242},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1205.740077},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1209.626827},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1193.166106},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1172.901532},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1157.119963},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1136.473945},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1179.078663},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1184.751408},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1181.299382},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1173.095734},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1172.165213},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1205.207452},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1225.460739},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1240.591628},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1241.392305},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1244.046129},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1263.506743},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1277.625874},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1295.76508},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1309.070733},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1349.284756},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1388.771958},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1419.494242},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1439.961026},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1446.672975},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1472.097428},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1487.177085},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1507.58103},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1528.239935},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1560.57149},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1571.787517},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1588.179728},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1580.455615},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1589.375461},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1584.011802},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1571.452224},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1567.419441},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1552.047773},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1571.309865},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1585.312016},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1605.689018},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1596.826498},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1611.3113},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1612.052549},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1640.19032},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1644.769342},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1654.756847},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1652.150024},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1658.131839},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1680.922383},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1688.158162},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1686.168461},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1659.004382},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1664.525888},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1676.582904},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1708.513418},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1717.73807},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1729.108762},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1742.205585},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1743.838213},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1747.366589},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1740.20828},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1742.113284},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1753.799632},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1784.157945},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1808.245735},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1820.980354},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1819.917324},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1806.009026},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1802.473699},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1806.411007},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1827.102044},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1840.078364},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1854.264892},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1861.259438},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1865.4767},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1865.889219},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1860.465898},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1856.010352},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1854.761486},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1869.885718},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1880.47651}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":110,"firstPeriod":"2017-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":110,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1802.473699,"endRent":1880.47651,"change":0.04327542257247674,"cagr":0.04327542257247674},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1644.769342,"endRent":1880.47651,"change":0.14330712640435395,"cagr":0.04565311809100758},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1388.771958,"endRent":1880.47651,"change":0.35405708559100946,"cagr":0.06249622286629153}},"maxDrawdown":-0.060475578390921436,"annualizedVolatility":0.036723747183480863,"consecutiveReturnCount":109}}