The clearest signal in this ZIP is a modest current retreat set against a still-positive longer record. At the June 2026 Zillow endpoint, ZIP ZORI is $2,647 per month, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quoted price for every home. Its exact same-month 1-year annualized change is -0.3%, while the corresponding 3-year and 5-year annualized changes are +0.6% and +2.5%. Thus, recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the positive longer path. The endpoint captures a broad index level, not the mix, condition, term, or fee structure of an individual offering. This is a cooling measurement through the stated date, not a forecast, investment recommendation, or evidence that any particular advertised unit will be discounted.
The supplied historical record has 137 direct Zillow observations and 100% stated coverage through the endpoint. Annualized monthly-return volatility is 3.0%, quantifying observed month-to-month index movement and tempering the confidence a reader should place in a current snapshot; it is not a property-level error range. Its maximum drawdown is -9.3%, which reinforces the need to date and verify any current comparison. Transparent national discovery ranks, where lower ranks are higher, are 2,419 for momentum, 1,562 for stability, and 2,424 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs. The ranks, coverage, drawdown, and returns are backward-looking measurements only; none predicts future asking rent, investment performance, or concessions.
Scope separation is essential. The Zillow value is a ZIP-level asking-rent index, whereas the matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $2,499 median gross rent with a $103 margin of error for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That ACS measure sits 5.9% below current ZORI, but the difference does not establish overpricing or a change in a single unit because the universes, timing, and rent concepts differ. Each figure can be valid within its own design. The five-digit label 20001 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
HUD introduces another universe: the FY2026 FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder is an administrative standard, not asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $2,301 for a studio, $2,377 for a one-bedroom, $2,647 for a two-bedroom, $3,338 for a three-bedroom, and $3,928 for a four-bedroom. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $3,140, so it supplies relative bedroom structure to the calculation; it neither converts the standard into a listing-price observation nor proves the value, utility package, or availability of a given unit.
An arithmetic income screen gives the household-level tension more directly. Paying the current monthly index at 30% of gross income implies $105,880 in annual income. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $138,059 with an $8,211 margin of error, making asking-rent-to-income 23.0% when those aggregate figures are paired. This 30% screen is arithmetic only: it is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Separately, ACS identifies 6,594 of 15,890 renter households, or 41.5%, as paying 30% or more of income toward gross rent. That burden statistic is survey evidence across occupied renter homes, not proof of a burden level in a particular building or lease.
ACS describes a renter-heavy housing base with 26,928 housing units and 3,060 vacant units, producing an 11.4% vacancy rate; renter share is 66.6%. Large multifamily structures outnumber single-family homes in these ZCTA stock counts, a composition fact rather than a statement about a property's design or market position. The separate category for homes vacant for rent signals a survey inventory classification, not current availability, and cannot establish an individual landlord's pricing leverage, maintenance, or condition of a specific home. Population, occupancy, and vacancy are survey estimates useful for scale and composition, not a live unit ledger or a claim about a particular lease.
Against wider context only, the Washington city context and District of Columbia county context each report a $2,532 rent; the county context also reports a $2,246 two-bedroom FMR; and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context reports a $2,448 rent. The ZIP index exceeds each context rent figure, but those city, county, and metro values are context rather than replacements for ZIP ZORI, the ZCTA survey, or the local HUD standard. Before using this report for a property decision, confirm the address and delivery ZIP, advertised asking rent, bedroom count, observation date, lease term, included utilities, concessions, deposits, and recurring fees. Which property-specific fact would most change the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, the ZIP asking-rent index is $2,647. The exact same-month one-year change is -0.3%, but annualized changes remain positive over three and five years. This makes the recent reading a break from the longer observed path. Full historical coverage supports the calculation, but the result is retrospective and does not predict later rents or concessions.","title":"Cooling year, positive longer record"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes whose median gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The modelled bedroom figures use the HUD ladder to scale ZORI, so they maintain a relative bedroom pattern but are not measured rents from listings.","title":"Zillow, ACS, and HUD answer different rent questions"},{"body":"Using the current index in a 30% gross-income calculation produces a $105,880 annual income screen, below the ZCTA median household income. Yet ACS reports a substantial share of renter households at or above the gross-rent burden threshold. These are aggregate comparisons and survey estimates: they are neither advice nor applicant qualification criteria, and they cannot identify affordability for a particular household or unit.","title":"Aggregate screen differs from renter burden"},{"body":"The ZCTA reports a renter-majority housing base, material vacancy, and a stock in which large multifamily structures outnumber single-family homes. Those facts describe composition and a survey-era inventory category, not live availability or landlord behavior. The ZIP index also sits above the named city, county, and metro context rents, but each wider geography is context only and should not replace address-level checks.","title":"Vacancy requires property-level verification"}],"risks":["The ZORI result is a blended ZIP-level index of observed asking rents, not an asking price for a particular floor plan; date, lease terms, utilities, and fees can make a unit differ materially.","ACS renter, income, burden, and vacancy figures are five-year survey estimates for the matched ZCTA, with margins of error and different household concepts; they cannot establish present conditions for one building.","HUD FMR/SAFMR standards are administrative and bedroom-specific. Scaling the ZIP index with that ladder creates modelled estimates, so an apparent bedroom premium or discount is not measured market evidence.","A negative one-year history result, drawdown, volatility, and ranks summarize past index behavior through the endpoint. They do not forecast rents, availability, tenant outcomes, or returns after that date."],"qa":[{"a":"They describe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index at the ZIP market level and blends rental types. ACS median gross rent comes from occupied renter homes in a five-year ZCTA survey and includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to USPS delivery geography, so the gap is not a unit-level price error.","q":"Why does current Zillow ZORI differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"The one-year figure is an exact same-month backward-looking change through the stated endpoint, and it is negative. It breaks from the positive annualized three- and five-year readings, but it does not say what rent will do next. Stated complete coverage improves confidence in the historical calculation; volatility and maximum drawdown still support verifying a current property quote.","q":"What does the negative one-year rent change mean?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates produced by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent series. The estimates preserve the ladder's relative scale; they do not report leases, listings, or observed bedroom-specific transactions.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates measured market rents?"},{"a":"The vacancy rate and burden share are aggregate ZCTA measures, while city, county, and metro figures are wider context. None proves availability, condition, rent, or affordability for a specific unit. Verify the delivery ZIP and address, bedroom count, advertised rent, utilities, concessions, term, deposits, and recurring fees before comparing a property with this report.","q":"How should vacancy, burden, and wider-area comparisons be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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