At $2,554 in June 2026, Zillow ZORI for ZIP 20003 is the current rent anchor, but its cooling trajectory and the separate resale record create an evidence-universe tension rather than one market verdict. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is not a lease contract, a tenant-paid gross-rent measure, or a bedroom-specific observation. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. This report therefore uses the shared label for lookup while preserving every source’s distinct population, timing, and measurement definition.
Backward-looking direct Zillow history records exact same-month annualized ZORI changes of −2.86% over one year, +0.70% over three years, and +2.15% over five years. The latest decline breaks from, rather than confirms, the positive longer path. Coverage is complete across 122 monthly observations, with annualized monthly-return variability of 2.29% and a maximum drawdown of 9.62%. That variability and prior drawdown are reasons to temper confidence in a single current rent snapshot, even though the history is fully observed. Among history-eligible ZIPs nationwide, transparent discovery ranks are 2,658 for momentum, 396 for stability, and 1,957 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or evidence of future rent movement.
The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $2,698. This occupied-renter-home measure includes selected utilities; ZORI is 5.34% below it, yet it cannot serve as an asking-rent substitute. The current fiscal-year local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder places its two-bedroom administrative standard at $3,370, not at a measured asking rent. Scaling ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $2,221 for a studio, $2,289 for one bedroom, $2,554 for two bedrooms, $3,221 for three bedrooms, and $3,789 for four bedrooms. Those are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Annualizing the current index produces a required household income of $102,160 under the 30% screen. Matched-ZCTA ACS median household income is $159,846, producing a ZIP asking-rent-to-income comparison of 19.17%. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The same ACS burden tabulation reports 4,259 of 12,512 occupied renter households as burdened at the stated threshold, or 34.04%. Area-level median income and the burden share therefore point to different aspects of the surveyed population. Neither the screen nor the burden estimate establishes affordability, eligibility, or payment experience for a particular unit or household.
Stock composition adds another aggregate constraint. The matched ZCTA records 22,394 housing units, including 2,536 vacant units, for an 11.32% vacancy rate. It has 12,512 renter-occupied households, a 63.01% renter share. Among the reported structure counts are 6,779 single-family units and 11,571 large-multifamily units. These stock and tenure figures frame the populations behind the survey, rather than a current availability list. In particular, the survey-wide vacancy statistic cannot prove that a particular home is vacant, rentable, in comparable condition, or offered at the index level.
For wider context only, the Washington city current-rent context is $2,532, the District of Columbia county current-rent context is $2,532, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro current-rent context is $2,448. The direct ZIP index is above all three, but this comparison is only geographic context, not a replacement for the ZIP reading. The city, county, and metro values sit in wider scopes and cannot be used as local rental transactions. Nor can the contextual rent figures make ACS gross rent, the HUD standard, or ZORI interchangeable. Their value here is to show where the direct index sits relative to named broader measures.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $993,775 median sold price, up 7.31% from the prior-year period. It recorded 128 homes sold with median marketing time of 43 days, inventory of 161 homes, and 3.8 months of supply. The average sale-to-list signal was 101.7%. These are for-sale/resale observations, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property-level economics. The price increase challenges any simple reading that the cooling asking-rent history describes every housing measure; meanwhile, sales, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list only describe liquidity and pricing signals within this ZIP’s resale sample.
Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the Redfin median sold price gives a 3.08% cross-source screening ratio only. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Important aggregation limits remain: ZORI blends rental types, ACS summarizes ZCTA households across its survey window, the HUD ladder is administrative, and Redfin summarizes sales rather than rentals. Concrete property-level checks would need the advertised rent and listing date, bedroom count, included utilities and concessions, lease term, stated availability, and a relevant sale’s transaction date and list price. Those facts determine whether a specific available unit resembles any aggregate measure. Does that unit’s advertised set of terms actually match the measure being invoked?
","findings":[{"body":"Direct ZIP ZORI declined over the latest same-month year while the direct Redfin rolling-three-month resale median price increased. This is the report’s central tension: asking-rent cooling and for-sale price appreciation appear in separate measurement systems. The result prevents a single housing-direction conclusion, but it does not show that one series caused, predicts, or economically determines the other.","title":"Cooling rent series versus firmer resale prices"},{"body":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different questions. ZORI represents typical observed asking rent across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The scaled ZIP bedroom figures are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents or a substitute for unit-specific listings.","title":"The rent measures are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The area-level income screen looks lower than the median household income comparison, yet more than one-third of surveyed renter households are burdened at the stated threshold. This is not a contradiction in measurement: the income screen is mechanical, while burden describes surveyed occupied renters’ gross-rent share. Neither statistic decides affordability, eligibility, or payment risk for an individual household.","title":"Income screening and renter burden describe different populations"},{"body":"Survey stock and vacancy counts describe the ZCTA’s housing inventory, and Redfin’s sales count, days, supply, and sale-to-list data describe ZIP resale liquidity. Neither is a live rental availability feed. Unit-specific advertised terms, condition, utilities, concessions, bedroom count, and lease details remain outside these aggregate measures.","title":"Vacancy and resale liquidity remain aggregate evidence"}],"risks":["A ZIP-wide asking-rent index blends rental types and does not identify a unit’s condition, lease duration, concessions, utility treatment, current availability, or actual executed rent.","The ACS ZCTA survey represents occupied renter homes over five years; its geography is statistical rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and its burden measure cannot describe a specific household.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom standards, while the ZIP bedroom ladder is a proportional model based on ZORI; neither is a measured asking-rent distribution.","Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP observation reflects resale activity only. A median sale price, supply figure, and sale-to-list result cannot determine rental cash flows or property economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. The ACS figure is a five-year ZCTA survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Different time windows, covered households, and rent definitions mean the gap is a source-comparison result, not proof that either series is wrong.","q":"Why can ZORI be below ACS median gross rent without creating a source conflict?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom values proportionally scale ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard, and the resulting values are explicitly modelled estimates. They do not measure listings, signed leases, or rent distributions for units with those bedroom counts.","q":"Are the bedroom-specific ZIP rent figures measured asking rents?"},{"a":"The required-income figure annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides it by the stated threshold. It is an arithmetic comparison with area median household income, not underwriting, advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a finding about any household’s actual income, expenses, or lease terms.","q":"How should the required-income screen be interpreted?"},{"a":"Redfin’s median sale price and year-over-year change show that the resale observation moved differently from the asking-rent history. Homes sold, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list figures describe turnover and pricing signals in for-sale data. They are not rental transactions, rent comparables, forecasts, or a basis for property-specific economics.","q":"What does the Redfin resale evidence establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":2198.971412},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":2224.013175},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":2227.041941},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":2215.043919},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":2211.97931},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":2196.531384},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2193.556672},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2191.176176},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2208.738795},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":2226.620699},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2217.293618},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2234.370405},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2228.802331},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2242.664381},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2229.062329},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":2256.419243},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":2258.918662},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":2266.713628},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":2270.549577},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":2284.345657},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2285.297671},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2252.664526},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2243.703126},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2247.754766},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2256.284253},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2266.829762},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2277.466444},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2293.328548},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2295.781368},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2297.109529},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2320.556531},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2346.02437},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2350.827946},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2340.670488},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2357.979814},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2354.591377},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2364.735764},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2359.414226},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2372.705361},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2366.481279},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2383.781746},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2400.955779},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2401.167865},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2397.25938},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2411.6679},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2455.115887},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2438.36181},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2421.192487},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2377.328728},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2353.682284},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2334.09045},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2312.973443},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2285.098177},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2255.616745},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2229.329206},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2218.973596},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2228.113634},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2222.695683},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2228.978027},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2231.222254},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2262.084461},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2296.971915},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2329.256982},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2353.025454},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2373.295686},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2407.947309},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2438.397253},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2459.512801},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2453.602247},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2454.349857},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2455.081603},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2478.235781},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2486.530238},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2491.670118},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2479.655097},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2478.247607},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2484.848698},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2484.091864},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2483.850816},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2487.679957},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2493.076953},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2508.952375},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2515.166876},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2511.007617},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2505.270255},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2501.192019},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2519.411113},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2536.566675},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2537.066815},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2531.981254},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2513.78509},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2503.60317},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2493.997319},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2501.114567},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2511.016629},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2527.554971},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2539.308997},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2558.500157},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2572.255521},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2586.54786},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2603.580282},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2606.880767},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2621.412732},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2632.515117},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2657.335161},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2668.938143},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2679.245327},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2669.221083},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2651.164099},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2629.616419},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2616.426343},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2601.416356},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2590.581163},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2593.1731},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2592.753456},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2589.645499},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2575.568178},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2560.115889},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2545.587948},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2543.340389},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2549.546078},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2554.368832}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":122,"firstPeriod":"2016-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":122,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2629.616419,"endRent":2554.368832,"change":-0.028615423320415445,"cagr":-0.028615423320415445},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2501.192019,"endRent":2554.368832,"change":0.021260587990065805,"cagr":0.007037223975055573},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2296.971915,"endRent":2554.368832,"change":0.11205923560454156,"cagr":0.02146992492091937}},"maxDrawdown":-0.09618376560161135,"annualizedVolatility":0.02288046467836217,"consecutiveReturnCount":121}}