For 20020, the five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and its matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. At June 2026, Zillow ZORI is $2,182. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease-level quote. The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent is $1,306, includes selected utilities, and describes occupied renter homes. The Zillow reading is 67.1% above the ACS figure, or 1.67 times it. That divergence frames the ZIP: these source universes answer different questions, so neither is a replacement for the other. The measures also differ in timing, occupancy basis, and utility treatment, so the difference is not a like-for-like price spread.
Measured through June 2026, the direct ZIP ZORI history has exact same-month annualized changes of 4.91% over one year, 5.76% over three years, and 5.72% over five years. The latest pace confirms, rather than breaks from, the longer upward path, but is slightly slower. Annualized volatility of monthly returns is 3.79%, maximum drawdown was -4.22%, and coverage is 98.9%. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 283 for momentum, 2,482 for stability, and 991 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. Ranks are discovery tools, not a separate rent measure. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations; the high variability and drawdown reduce the confidence warranted in one current snapshot.
Bedroom comparison points are modelled monthly estimates produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder: $1,901 for a studio, $1,954 for one bedroom, $2,182 for two, $2,758 for three, and $3,240 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. A difference between a modelled estimate and an advertised unit does not by itself make either figure wrong, because this is not a bedroom-listing sample. The HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder itself runs from $1,420 for a studio to $2,420 for four bedrooms. It is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its role here is to set relative bedroom spacing rather than report what listings ask.
The income tension is pronounced. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $54,032, while annualizing the $2,182 current index yields a 48.5% asking-rent-to-income screen. At a 30% screen, the same index arithmetically implies $87,280 in annual income. This is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The income comparison uses the matched-ZCTA median household figure, not verified renter income or an individual household’s resources. Separately, ACS estimates 16,015 renter households and 8,200 spending at least 30% of income on gross rent, a 51.2% burden share. Those survey results describe area households; they do not prove the affordability, utilities, or burden of any particular unit.
The same ACS ZCTA contains 26,059 housing units: 22,943 are occupied and 3,116 vacant, for a 12.0% overall vacancy rate. Renter-occupied homes number 16,015, or 69.8% of occupied units. The stock includes 9,062 single-family units and 3,370 large multifamily units. Among vacant units, 1,029 are for rent. This classification indicates an area-level count, not a guarantee that a unit is available now or evidence of its condition, rent, lease terms, or utility treatment. It does not show how long a vacancy has existed or whether it can be leased on comparable terms.
For wider-context comparison only, the Washington city rent context and District of Columbia county rent context are each $2,532; the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro rent context is $2,448. These scopes are broader than the ZIP and do not alter its direct reading. They locate the ZIP’s asking-rent index below all listed context values, yet cannot reconcile the ZIP index with the ACS gross-rent survey or supply a property-level price. City, county, and metro context are comparators, not local market evidence. They can provide scale, but their larger geographies cannot describe an individual ZIP listing.
Several limits remain before using this report for a listing comparison. Relevant property-level checks include the advertised rent, bedroom count, property type, availability date, lease length, and included utilities; the index blends rental types and the ACS figure includes selected utilities. Record the stated rent and any stated concessions separately. The address’s delivery geography matters because a ZCTA match alone is not a delivery-ZIP match. Any HUD standard in the comparison remains an administrative benchmark, not a claimed asking rent. The unresolved question is simple: does the specific home’s current offer actually match the scope of the comparison being made?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP index sits materially above the ACS median gross-rent reading, but the measures capture different populations and cost concepts. The index is a typical asking-rent signal across rental types, while ACS describes occupied renter homes and selected utilities over a survey period. Use the gap as a scope warning, not as evidence that a particular advertised home is overpriced or that tenants face the current index.","title":"Source-universe gap is the central signal"},{"body":"History shows sustained same-month increases over the measured horizons, with the latest annual pace somewhat below the longer annualized rates. The pattern therefore supports continuity of direction rather than acceleration. However, the high-variability classification, observed drawdown, and weak stability discovery standing mean a single current index reading deserves less precision than a smoother series would warrant. These are retrospective measurements, not forecasts or investment signals.","title":"Longer growth history comes with limited stability"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are a modelling device built by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP-wide Zillow index. They preserve the local standard’s relative bedroom spacing, but are not a sample of observed studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit listings. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative standards, not asking rents. A property-level comparison depends on its actual bedroom count, lease terms, and included utilities.","title":"Bedroom amounts are scaled comparisons, not observations"},{"body":"The income screen is a transparent calculation: it annualizes the ZIP index and applies a 30% share of the matched-ZCTA median household income benchmark. It is not financial advice, a tenant budget, or an eligibility rule. ACS burden and vacancy measures describe groups and units in the matched ZCTA; neither establishes payment stress, availability, price, condition, or utility treatment for a specific address.","title":"Area-level affordability measures require careful interpretation"}],"risks":["Comparing Zillow ZORI directly with ACS gross rent can misstate today’s listing market because the first is a blended asking-rent index and the second is a multiyear occupied-home survey that includes selected utilities.","Past rent changes, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks are backward-looking descriptions. They cannot establish future price direction, listing performance, investment outcomes, or the timing of any change in a specific property’s advertised rent.","The bedroom estimates inherit the ZIP-wide index and HUD ladder. They may not match a unit whose condition, lease structure, utilities, furnishings, location, or property type differs from the blended index composition.","Vacant and burdened counts are area-level ACS estimates with survey uncertainty and category definitions. They do not demonstrate that a particular home is rentable, available now, affordable to an applicant, or subject to the reported utility treatment."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents across blended rental types at the ZIP level. ACS median gross rent summarizes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. Their timing, unit populations, and cost concepts differ, so the comparison flags a source-universe gap rather than a pricing error. A property listing requires its own rent and terms.","q":"Why is the ZIP Zillow reading higher than the ACS rent figure?"},{"a":"The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates: the ZIP-wide Zillow index is scaled with the local HUD bedroom ladder. This provides a consistent relative ladder, but it does not measure a market sample of advertised units for each bedroom count. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative standard and is not an asking-rent observation.","q":"How should the bedroom figures be interpreted?"},{"a":"Same-month changes, monthly-return volatility, maximum drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks describe the observed history available through the stated endpoint. The latest direction can be compared with the longer path, while volatility cautions against treating one index reading as unusually precise. None of these statistics predicts future rents, tenant outcomes, or investment returns.","q":"What do the history measures say, and what do they not say?"},{"a":"Relevant property-level checks are the advertised rent, bedroom count, property type, lease length, availability date, and included utilities. Confirm the address’s delivery geography, then separate any HUD administrative benchmark from an owner’s asking rent. Also compare the listing’s terms with the index’s broad rental-type scope and the ACS occupied-home scope before drawing conclusions.","q":"Which property-level checks matter before making a comparison?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market 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