The strongest immediate tension is a softer resale setting alongside a rent index that remains materially above the matched survey rent. Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, a for-sale measure rather than rental transactions, places median sold price at $417,406, down 1.08% year over year. It recorded 37 homes sold and 79 median days on market. Inventory was 139 homes, 30.8% above its prior-year level, with 11.4 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 98.2%; 13.9% sold above list. Those pricing and liquidity signals are consistent with recent ZORI cooling but challenge a simple strength inference from the current-rent or income screen. They do not establish rental terms or property economics.
The five-digit label 20024 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow's June 2026 ZORI is $2,378 per month, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than the median lease of a specific building or bedroom. The matched Census ZCTA's $2,139 median gross rent comes from the ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, leaving it 11.2% below ZORI. These figures are useful reference points but not interchangeable rental comparables because they measure different populations, rent concepts, and collection frameworks.
History makes the current ZORI snapshot less decisive. Exact same-month changes through the stated endpoint show a 1.21% decline over one year, against annualized gains of 0.12% over three years and 1.61% over five years. The recent slide therefore breaks from both longer positive paths, though the three-year path was nearly flat. Coverage is 100%, so the reading spans the full available ZIP series. Month-to-month changes translate to 2.72% annualized variability, limiting the confidence warranted by an isolated current rent observation. Separately, maximum drawdown—the largest peak-to-trough decline—reached 7.76%, documenting a meaningful past retreat. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,593 for momentum, 1,093 for stability, and 2,330 for balanced, where lower numerical rank is better. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Bedroom detail has to be modelled rather than treated as observed. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the applicable local HUD bedroom ladder produces monthly modelled estimates of $2,069 for a studio, $2,133 for one bedroom, $2,378 for two bedrooms, $3,004 for three bedrooms, and $3,531 for four bedrooms. They are not measured bedroom rents, lease comparables, or evidence of a given unit's asking price. The applicable FY2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,620. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; the gap from the two-bedroom model reflects the scaling method and different source universes, not a discount available to every renter.
The income screen and burden result add a separate tension. Annualizing the index produces a 30% required-income screen of $95,120, compared with $107,411 median household income in the matched ACS ZCTA. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and it cannot prove affordability for a particular household or unit. In the same ACS occupied-renter universe, 3,054 of 6,847 renter households, or 44.6%, reported spending at least that share of income on gross rent. Because gross rent includes selected utilities while ZORI is an asking-rent index, the aggregate income screen and burden share answer different questions; their difference is not evidence about any individual lease.
The housing-stock profile reinforces the need to avoid property-level conclusions. The ZCTA contained 12,219 housing units, of which 2,122 were vacant, a 17.4% ACS vacancy rate; 1,141 were classified vacant for rent. Large multifamily structures accounted for 9,631 units. These survey estimates describe a statistical area's stock and status categories, not the availability, condition, price, bedroom mix, or concession terms of a particular apartment. The aggregate vacancy reading is compatible with the weaker one-year asking-rent direction, but it neither identifies vacant comparable units nor shows what a landlord will accept.
Broader figures are context only. In Washington city context, Zillow rent was $2,532, above this ZIP's index; in District of Columbia County context, the two-bedroom HUD standard was $2,246, below the applicable local ZIP standard; and in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context, Zillow rent was $2,448. City, county, and metro values do not substitute for the ZIP asking-rent observation, the ZCTA survey, the local HUD ladder, or the direct ZIP resale record. Their different scopes and definitions limit any inference from a wide-area average to a particular building.
Finally, annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the direct ZIP median sold price is 6.84%, solely a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a measure of property-level economics because the index and resale median supply no operating costs, unit matching, financing, closing expenses, or executed-lease information. A property-level review can separately verify bedroom count, current asking price, included utilities, concessions, availability date, lease term, comparable listings, and physical condition. It can also verify sale date, property type, list price, and transaction status before relating resale evidence to any unit. Does the specific listing actually match the source universe behind the number being used?
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI at $2,378 has declined 1.21% on the exact same-month one-year comparison, while three- and five-year annualized changes remain positive at 0.12% and 1.61%. Complete history coverage supports the directional description, but 2.72% annualized variability and a 7.76% maximum drawdown indicate that a monthly index level deserves measured confidence. The rank set is a historical discovery tool, not a forecast.","title":"Recent rent cooling breaks the longer path"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom estimates run from $2,069 to $3,531, with $2,133 for one bedroom, $2,378 for two, and $3,004 for three. They are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZORI with the local HUD ladder, not measured rents. The $2,620 two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative benchmark; its difference from the model does not quote a unit price.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed rents"},{"body":"A 30% income calculation uses annualized ZORI and produces $95,120, below the ZCTA median household income of $107,411. Yet ACS found that 44.6% of renter households were burdened at or above that threshold using gross rent. The results are not contradictory: the first is a standardized arithmetic screen on asking rent, while the latter is a multiyear survey measure of occupied renter homes with selected utilities.","title":"Income arithmetic and reported burden answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show 37 homes sold, 79 days on market, and 11.4 months of supply while the median sold price declined 1.08%. Inventory rose 30.8%, and average sale-to-list was 98.2%. These are for-sale liquidity and pricing observations, not rental comps. They challenge a simplistic strength interpretation of current rent or the income screen but do not describe a particular asset.","title":"Resale liquidity challenges a simple rent-strength reading"}],"risks":["ZIP ZORI blends rental types and tracks typical observed asking rents, so a building-level advertised price can differ by bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, concessions, availability, and timing.","The ACS result is a five-year survey with reported margins of error for a matched ZCTA, whose statistical boundary is not a USPS delivery ZIP; it is not a current asking-rent census.","Aggregate vacancy and rent-burden classifications do not prove that a particular unit is empty, affordable, or available on comparable terms, and they cannot reveal lease concessions, physical condition, or household circumstances.","Redfin's rolling resale observation describes for-sale transactions and market time rather than rentals. Pairing its median sale price with annualized ZORI omits operating costs, unit matching, financing, and executed-lease details."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow's ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types for the current period. It is not a signed-lease median, a measured bedroom rent, or evidence that a particular currently available unit is priced at the index level.","q":"What does the current $2,378 figure represent?"},{"a":"It comes from ACS's matched Census ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index. Because a ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, the figures have different geographic and rent-definition universes.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates made by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than observed asking rent, so the estimates cannot replace unit-level listings, signed leases, or measured bedroom rents.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts measured market rents?"},{"a":"Redfin measures a direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale/resale observation, including sale pricing, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list signals. It does not measure rental transactions. Its median sale price can be paired arithmetically with annualized ZORI only as a cross-source screening ratio, not as property-level economics.","q":"What does the ZORI-to-sale-price comparison measure?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + 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