Ashburn’s ZIP market begins with a near-term cooling signal, an early contrast to its longer rental record and for-sale indicators. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $2,844 per month, 0.7% below its year-earlier level. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a survey of tenants or a bedroom-specific rent measure. For wider context only, the Ashburn city-context rent is $2,994.96, the Loudoun County county-context rent is $2,917, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro-context rent is $2,448. Those city, county, and metro figures frame the ZIP index; they do not replace a direct ZIP observation.
ZIP 20147 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent is $2,416, which is 17.7% below ZORI. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities, so it is a different evidence universe from current asking rent. HUD’s local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $2,520, and ZORI is 12.9% higher. This HUD figure is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
The bedroom view should therefore be read as a model rather than as a ZIP rent survey. Scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $2,472 for a studio, $2,551 for one bedroom, $2,844 for two bedrooms, $3,589 for three bedrooms, and $4,221 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the HUD ladder sets relative spacing, while the Zillow index supplies the ZIP-level asking-rent anchor. The two-bedroom estimate equals the overall index because of that scaling method, not because every two-bedroom listing asks that amount.
Income and burden measurements create a second tension. Applying the 30% required-income screen to annualized ZORI produces $113,760, versus an ACS ZCTA median household income of $163,904; the resulting asking-rent-to-income screen is 20.8%. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Yet the ACS survey reports 43.4% of renter-occupied homes at or above the same burden threshold. That share describes surveyed occupied households, not a prospective renter or a particular available unit. It also cannot establish which utilities, lease terms, or household incomes apply to an individual property.
ACS stock counts provide broad ZCTA context rather than a live availability feed. The survey estimates 26,008 housing units, including 8,094 renter-occupied homes, and 830 vacant units, for a 3.2% vacancy rate. It identifies 426 units as vacant for rent, a classification that does not indicate their price, bedroom count, condition, timing, or whether they are currently marketable. These stock and vacancy measures should not be converted into proof that a particular unit can be leased. They instead delimit the survey’s aggregate housing and renter base behind the burden results.
Zillow’s direct ZIP historical record clarifies why the current dip should not be read as the whole path. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change is -0.7% over one year, +3.4% over three years, and +4.8% over five years. The negative recent result breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer measured increase. The backward-looking series has 100% coverage across 138 observations, annualized monthly-return variability of 2.1%, and a maximum drawdown of -3.6%. Those measures provide a documented basis for confidence in one current ZIP snapshot, but that confidence applies to index continuity rather than any individual listing and does not forecast future asking rents. In transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranks 1,862, stability 183, and balanced performance 955; lower rank is higher. These are discovery measurements, not investment recommendations.
Redfin supplies a separate, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $732,330, down 0.7% from a year earlier, with 251 homes sold and a median 27 days on market. Inventory is 147 homes and months of supply is 1.8. The average sale-to-list result is 100.99%, and 46.8% of sales closed above list. Thus, the sale-price change confirms the direction of the one-year ZORI decline, while the supply and sale-to-list signals challenge any inference from rent cooling and the arithmetic income screen that conditions are broadly loose. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 4.66%, only a cross-source screening ratio, not a measure of property economics or a prospective outcome. These resale measures describe for-sale liquidity, price, and marketing only.
No source in this packet establishes the rent, utility bill, sale economics, or availability of a specific property. Zillow is a blended asking-rent index; ACS is a retrospective survey of occupied homes; HUD is a standard; and Redfin is a resale record. A property-level review would need to match the advertised rent to the actual bedroom count and lease terms, identify included utilities, confirm the property’s ZIP-market treatment and current availability, and separately verify the listed and sold-price record, marketing period, and sale-to-list result. It should also keep the ZCTA’s statistical boundary distinct from a USPS delivery ZIP. Does the subject property’s documented rent, bedroom, utility, sale, and timing details actually match the separate measures used here?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index is down from a year ago, whereas the direct resale observation records sale-to-list outcomes above list alongside a lower median sale price. This is a measurable tension, not a contradiction to resolve by blending data. Rent movement, sale prices, inventory, marketing time, and sale-to-list outcomes all remain distinct ZIP measurements with distinct transactions and timing.","title":"Cooling rent index, mixed resale signals"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA median gross-rent result is lower than ZORI. It surveys occupied renter homes across a five-year period and includes selected utilities. HUD’s FMR/SAFMR is another separate comparison point: it is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The gaps are decision-useful only when framed as different evidence universes, not as alternate quotes for the same available home.","title":"Three rent universes require separation"},{"body":"The HUD-scaled bedroom ladder presents modelled relative price points from studio through four bedrooms, not observed submarket rents. Separately, the required-income calculation places current annualized ZORI against a fixed 30% arithmetic threshold. Its contrast with the renter burden share is informative, but one is an index-and-income calculation and the other is a survey result for occupied renter homes.","title":"Modelled bedrooms versus household burden"},{"body":"Full history coverage, measured variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks make the rent series more interpretable as a historical ZIP index. They do not convert past same-month changes into a forward view. ACS housing stock and vacancy figures provide an aggregate ZCTA denominator, while the Redfin resale block provides ZIP-level resale activity; neither proves the availability, condition, rent, or economics of a particular property.","title":"Aggregate evidence has property limits"}],"risks":["Source mismatch risk remains material: ZORI is asking rent, ACS gross rent reflects occupied homes and selected utilities, and HUD is an administrative standard. Percentage gaps between them cannot identify the price or affordability of a specific lease.","The bedroom ladder risk is structural: each bedroom figure is scaled from the ZIP index using HUD proportions. A property’s actual bedroom designation, rent terms, included utilities, and timing may not follow those modelled proportions.","Historical risk is directional: the one-year decline followed longer same-month gains, and the stated variability and drawdown are backward-looking. Neither the discovery ranks nor the history establishes a future rent path or investment result.","Aggregation risk spans both tenure and resale evidence: ZCTA burden and vacancy counts are not availability records, while Redfin resale activity is not rental activity. Property-level rent, sale, and marketing records need separate verification."],"qa":[{"a":"They address different universes. Zillow tracks a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes including selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. A shared ZIP/ZCTA label does not make these values measurements of the same homes, dates, or leasing terms.","q":"Why are Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures not interchangeable?"},{"a":"The $2,472 through $4,221 figures are modelled estimates, created by scaling the ZIP-wide ZORI level with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They show relative bedroom spacing under that method. They are not measured bedroom rents, and the two-bedroom result equals ZORI because the scaling construction anchors that category to the overall index.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created?"},{"a":"The $113,760 figure simply divides annualized $2,844 ZORI by 30%. Comparing that threshold with ACS median household income produces a ZIP/ZCTA arithmetic screen, not an eligibility decision. The 43.4% burden result is separately observed across occupied renter homes and cannot determine the circumstances of a particular tenant or unit.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether a renter qualifies?"},{"a":"Redfin reports a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. It documents a $732,330 median sold price, sales, and marketing signals, not rental transactions. Its 4.66% annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is a cross-source screen only; it does not establish property-level economics, a lease rate, or a prospective outcome.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1910.071317},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1911.836662},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1925.334554},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1924.018155},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1934.618295},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1926.380389},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1931.254091},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1934.52994},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1961.214509},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1961.656382},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1957.338619},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1936.921636},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1934.882451},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1935.466241},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1943.989705},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1950.982045},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1950.742841},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1959.500781},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1962.551476},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1975.308072},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1966.999922},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1993.185294},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2010.660755},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2022.527299},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2003.661993},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1995.780132},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2002.37063},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2003.937465},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2014.508257},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2014.854311},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2016.328353},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1996.141292},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1983.650489},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1962.595003},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1950.521754},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1969.239174},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2003.693432},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2034.972718},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2036.311559},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2036.596301},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2031.944249},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2033.427888},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2036.806023},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2049.272664},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2047.61453},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2055.016701},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2051.536556},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2063.66513},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2065.777601},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2065.073668},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2068.512007},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2075.901939},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2083.378653},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2089.351665},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2093.386601},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2098.048715},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2112.569671},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2117.146574},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2126.824473},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2109.685736},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2097.740142},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2086.842962},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2115.878408},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2126.745839},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2116.085246},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2112.794175},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2115.614304},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2121.36398},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2129.825049},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2136.741655},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2146.70195},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2143.018427},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2149.402054},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2138.534627},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2138.463245},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2159.026235},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2201.654905},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2250.567312},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2284.344033},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2316.086979},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2329.744773},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2337.798029},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2346.027384},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2375.462748},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2409.479979},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2440.007612},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2469.239042},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2481.830719},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2497.307309},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2502.363781},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2513.753365},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2519.979158},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2543.209471},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2562.145428},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2570.070765},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2570.763176},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2567.614005},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2577.91157},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2582.360819},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2581.222575},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2574.507667},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2573.057233},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2583.16713},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2598.342907},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2605.47792},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2631.815939},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2646.971628},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2656.235989},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2653.985255},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2667.301676},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2693.4815},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2712.347669},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2740.865349},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2757.144674},{"period":"2024-0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