The for-sale side is firmer than the rent signal, creating ZIP 20904’s central cross-market tension. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, the median sold price was $649,853, up 2.49% year over year, with 96 homes sold and a median 33 days on market. Inventory stood at 75 homes and months of supply at 2.4. The average sale-to-list result was 101.47%, while 51.66% of sales closed above list and 51.19% went off market within two weeks. Those are for-sale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 3.68% cross-source screening ratio; it is neither a cap rate nor a net return, expected return, or property yield.
Current rent evidence is more restrained. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and the ZIP reading is $1,993 per month, up 1.95% from a year earlier. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey, median gross rent was $1,918 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, making the current asking index 3.9% higher. That comparison is directional because ACS describes occupied homes rather than active listings. HUD’s local two-bedroom standard is $2,160, but HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
The rent history supports a continuing upward path, but it also shows a slower recent pace. Exact same-month annualized ZIP ZORI growth measured 1.95% over one year, compared with 3.80% over three years and 4.40% over five years. Recent rent direction therefore does not reverse the longer path, yet it fails to match its earlier growth rate. The history contains 65 monthly observations with 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.46% suggests that one current index reading deserves more confidence as a broad rent marker than as a precise property quote. Separately, the largest historical peak-to-trough decline was 1.67%, a limited but real reminder that the series has not moved uniformly. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,110 for momentum, 611 for stability, and 555 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs; lower ranks are stronger. These backward-looking measurements are not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view is a modelled extension of the ZIP index, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,735 for a studio, $1,790 for one bedroom, $1,993 for two bedrooms, $2,519 for three bedrooms, and $2,953 for four bedrooms. The HUD ladder itself moves from a $1,880 studio administrative standard to $3,200 for four bedrooms, with intermediate bedroom standards used to set the relative steps. This approach makes the bedroom pattern internally consistent with the ZIP asking-rent index, but it cannot establish what any currently advertised unit, lease term, building type, or utility package commands.
The income screen is less comfortable than the aggregate asking-rent-to-income comparison alone may suggest. Applying the 30% rent-share arithmetic to the current ZIP asking index produces required annual income of $79,720, versus matched-ZCTA median household income of $96,025; the asking-rent screen equals 24.9% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. More importantly, 62.9% of renter households in the ACS burden measure paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That burden measure includes the ACS gross-rent definition and describes households in aggregate; it does not prove affordability, hardship, or rent terms for a particular current or future unit. Median household income also cannot substitute for a renter household’s actual income.
The matched ZCTA’s housing base adds context to that burden signal without demonstrating immediate rental availability. It contained 22,261 housing units, with a 4.7% vacancy rate and a 51.1% renter share. Its stock included 11,273 single-family units and 4,933 units in larger multifamily structures, indicating that neither structure type alone represents the entire local housing inventory. The vacancy measurement is a survey-based area statistic, rather than a count of currently marketable rentals, and it cannot verify a vacancy at any specific property. Likewise, the renter share characterizes occupied housing in the ZCTA, not the mix of active listings contributing to Zillow’s asking-rent index.
Wider geography provides a useful but limited benchmark: Silver Spring city context had asking rent of $1,966, Montgomery County context had $2,346, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context had $2,448. ZIP 20904’s asking index is therefore slightly above the city-context figure but below the county and metro context measures. Those city, county, and metro values are wider-context observations, not substitutes for the ZIP rent index, matched-ZCTA ACS survey, local HUD standard, or direct ZIP resale data. The contrast matters because the ZIP’s slower recent rent growth and high aggregate burden sit beside resale evidence showing relatively quick marketing and frequent above-list outcomes.
Several limits should remain explicit before treating these signals as a property decision. ZORI is an index rather than a lease-specific quote; ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a resale observation rather than evidence on rental operations. Useful property-level checks include reviewing active asking rents for genuinely comparable bedroom counts, lease lengths, concessions, utility treatment, and unit condition; confirming whether an advertised home is still available; and comparing address-level resale history, list history, and sale terms with the ZIP-level Redfin measures. The practical question is whether a specific unit’s current terms align with the broad ZIP rent index while remaining distinct from the stronger resale-market signals.
","findings":[{"body":"Direct ZIP resale evidence shows price growth, short marketing time, limited months of supply, above-list sales, and rapid off-market activity. By contrast, ZIP ZORI still rose but at a slower one-year pace than its longer same-month growth rates. This is a cross-source tension, not proof that either market will change next.","title":"Resale strength exceeds recent rent momentum"},{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index sits modestly above the matched-ZCTA ACS median gross rent. Zillow describes typical observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The proximity is informative for broad context, but it does not create a lease-level comparable rent.","title":"Asking rent and occupied-home rent are close but not interchangeable"},{"body":"The arithmetic income threshold for the current asking index falls below matched-ZCTA median household income, yet a substantial share of renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above the standard screening threshold. That difference shows why a median-income comparison should not be interpreted as a household-specific affordability determination.","title":"Aggregate burden qualifies the median-income screen"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom ladder is derived by scaling the ZIP ZORI through local HUD bedroom standards. It provides a consistent modelled pattern across unit sizes, but it is not a measurement of active bedroom-specific asking rents. Actual listings can differ by property type, utilities, lease term, condition, and concessions.","title":"Bedroom figures are proportional model outputs"}],"risks":["The asking-rent index blends rental types and is not a current quote for a particular building, bedroom configuration, lease duration, utility package, concession structure, or unit condition.","ACS gross-rent and burden statistics are matched-ZCTA survey estimates for occupied renter homes, so they cannot establish the affordability, occupancy status, or financial circumstances of a specific available unit.","The resale metrics are direct ZIP for-sale observations, but they do not measure rental demand, operating costs, tenant turnover, property expenses, or the economics of an individual rental property.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the ZIP index and HUD proportional structure; a listing-level review is necessary because actual bedroom rents may depart materially from the modelled pattern."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A difference between them does not establish an error or identify the rent for a particular vacant home.","q":"Why is the ZORI figure different from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. They are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. The calculation provides a proportional studio-through-four-bedroom framework, but it does not replace current comparable listings, signed leases, concession details, or unit-specific utility treatment.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"No. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP figures describe the for-sale market only, including sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. The annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and omits property-specific costs, rents, financing, and operating information.","q":"Does the resale evidence prove that renting is attractive or unattractive?"},{"a":"Verify active comparable asking rents by bedroom count, lease length, concessions, included utilities, property type, and condition. Confirm listing availability and terms directly. For a resale comparison, review address-level sale and list history rather than assuming that ZIP median price, marketing time, or sale-to-list results apply to that property.","q":"What should be verified for a specific property after reviewing this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; 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