ZIP 20906 entered June 2026 with a Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) of $1,895, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the ZIP level. The index was 2.78% below its level a year earlier. Its exact same-month annualized changes were -2.78% at 1 year, 0.38% at 3 years, and 3.10% at 5 years. The latest cooling therefore breaks from the longer positive five-year path and follows a nearly flat three-year result. Because ZORI is an index rather than a quoted lease, it summarizes the typical observed asking-rent level instead of identifying an available home. It is a backward-looking measurement rather than a forecast or investment recommendation.
Record quality adds context but not certainty. The series carries a 99.0% historical coverage ratio through the stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.78%, and maximum drawdown was -4.19%. Coverage documents observation availability, not certainty that every month represents the same mix of dwellings. Those measures make the history relatively complete while limiting confidence in any one current rent snapshot: monthly variation can move the index around a current reading, and the drawdown records a past retreat from a prior peak. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,701 for momentum, 1,205 for stability, and 2,467 for balanced history; lower rank is higher. They are retrospective descriptors, not forecasts.
Source universes answer different questions, so their level gaps are not contradictions. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent was $1,963, with a published ±$79 margin of error. It is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike ZORI's asking-rent index. The ACS figure describes a different population and rent concept, so it cannot be used as a current listing quote. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, although this label is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match. The FY2026 local two-bedroom HUD FMR/SAFMR benchmark is $2,190. It is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.
Applying the local HUD ladder to ZORI generates modelled ZIP bedroom estimates: $1,644 for a studio, $1,696 for one bedroom, the current index for two bedrooms, $2,388 for three, and $2,812 for four. The estimates scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder, preserving the index level and the ladder's bedroom spacing without reporting rents actually observed by bedroom count. The method is designed for proportional comparison, not for matching a unit's floor plan, services, or lease package. They are modelled estimates and never measured bedroom rents. This transparent ladder is a comparison device, while individual listings can differ in quoted rent, utility treatment, fees, lease terms, concessions, and availability.
Income framing is especially sensitive to source scope. The matched ACS ZCTA reports median household income of $97,521. Annualizing the current ZORI produces an asking-rent-to-income ratio of 23.3%. At a 30% required-income screen, the same arithmetic implies $75,800 in annual income. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The household-income median covers the ZCTA's reporting universe, not a verified renter income for an advertised property. Separately, ACS identifies 4,939 of 8,733 renter households, or 56.6%, as spending at least the threshold share of income on rent. This household-level survey indicator does not prove affordability or burden for a particular unit or applicant.
The matched ACS ZCTA contains 27,291 housing units, of which 1,333 were vacant, for a 4.9% vacancy rate. Renter-occupied units number 8,733, or 33.6% of occupied units. The stock is not all one form: 14,784 units are single-family and 4,778 are in large multifamily structures. Of the vacant stock, 345 units are classified for rent. These aggregate stock and vacancy categories are not a count of live listings and cannot demonstrate that any particular home is available. They also do not describe unit condition, price, or the timing of possible market exposure.
For wider context only, the city context for Silver Spring has a $1,966 rent measure, the county context for Montgomery County has $2,346, and the metro context for Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV has $2,448. These wider-scope measures do not override the ZIP's history, survey results, or administrative benchmark. Time alignment, source definitions, survey uncertainty, and the index's blended rental mix remain material limits. Those checks distinguish a property claim from the regional and statistical aggregates above. The property-level checks outside every aggregate are the advertised asking rent, bedroom designation, utilities included, recurring fees, lease length, concessions, and actual availability. Does the specific property's evidence align with the comparison being made?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI records a cooling same-month change despite positive annualized three- and five-year history. High coverage and relatively contained return variability provide a usable retrospective series, while the documented drawdown means the current reading should not be treated as fixed. The metrics describe historical index behavior only; they do not forecast rents, returns, or a property’s marketability.","title":"Recent cooling breaks from the longer path"},{"body":"The ACS measure is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, including selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a current asking-rent index. The matched ZCTA supports geography alignment for statistical reporting, but a ZCTA is not a USPS delivery ZIP. The difference in scope explains why ACS, Zillow, and HUD figures should remain separate rather than be treated as interchangeable rent observations.","title":"Rent sources are not interchangeable"},{"body":"The bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured studio, one-bedroom, or larger-unit asking rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey. The resulting ladder provides a consistent comparison framework but cannot establish the price, utility package, or availability of a particular home.","title":"Bedroom ladder is modelled, not observed"},{"body":"Aggregate ACS stock data show both owner and renter occupancy alongside vacant-unit classifications, but they cannot identify live rental inventory. The rent-burden share is a household-level survey statistic, not evidence that a particular resident or unit meets a threshold. Wider city, county, and metro rent measures are context only; property-level terms remain the unresolved comparison.","title":"Aggregate stock does not identify a listing"}],"risks":["The Zillow series is a ZIP-level blended asking-rent index, so changes can reflect the mix covered by the index and cannot verify a unit’s quoted rent or concession.","ACS estimates come from a matched ZCTA five-year survey and include selected utilities in gross rent. Sampling error, survey timing, and statistical geography limit direct comparison to live ZIP asking rents.","HUD FMR/SAFMR uses bedroom-specific administrative standards that may be ZIP-based or county-derived under the supplied scope. It is not observed asking rent and cannot validate an advertised unit price.","Vacancy and burden figures are aggregate categories rather than property records. A for-rent vacancy classification does not establish that a unit is currently listed, available, affordable, or offered under comparable terms."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is Zillow’s ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types. It tracks an index level for the ZIP at the stated period rather than a signed lease or a unit-specific quotation. Its history supplies same-month changes, variability, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks, all of which are backward-looking rather than predictive.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent measure?"},{"a":"ACS median gross rent is based on occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA across a five-year survey and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard defined by bedroom count. Neither is an asking-rent observation, so their levels should be read as separate evidence universes instead of competing measurements of one current rental price.","q":"Why are ACS and HUD figures not substitutes for Zillow asking rent?"},{"a":"The bedroom values are modelled estimates. The method takes the ZIP ZORI and scales it with the local HUD bedroom ladder, which creates consistent studio-through-four-bedroom positions. Because the model does not observe asking rents separately by bedroom, it cannot establish what any actual one-bedroom, two-bedroom, or larger listing charges.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"The income screen simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and applies the stated percentage threshold; it is not advice, underwriting, or an applicant qualification rule. Property-level comparison still requires the advertised asking rent, bedroom label, utilities included, recurring fees, lease term, concessions, and actual availability.","q":"What does the required-income screen establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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