At $1,571 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP ZORI places the current typical observed asking-rent index for this ZIP at a level that blends rental types rather than recording a specific lease. The index was 1.5% above its same-month prior-year level. A 30% required-income screen produces $62,840 against the ZCTA’s $45,640 median household income, translating to a 41.3% asking-rent-to-income ratio. That screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant-qualification rule. Separately, ACS counted 4,940 of 10,101 renter households as paying 30% or more of income toward rent, a 48.9% burden share; it does not prove a burden for any particular unit.
Bedroom detail is modelled rather than measured. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,152 for a studio, $1,278 for one bedroom, $1,571 for two bedrooms, $1,995 for three bedrooms, and $2,209 for four bedrooms. These are not observed bedroom rents, lease quotes, or a statement about the available stock. The HUD fair-market-rent or small-area fair-market-rent ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Relative to the $1,857 HUD two-bedroom standard, the ZIP’s current ZORI is 84.6%, a comparison of different source universes rather than a claim that apartments transact at either figure.
The rent history depicts stability with deceleration rather than a straight-line surge. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 1.5% over one year, 1.3% over three years, and 2.7% over five years. Thus, the latest direction confirms a positive longer path and modestly exceeds the three-year pace, but it breaks from the faster five-year pace. The history has complete 100% coverage through the stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.8% means a current reading has shown movement over time, so a single rent snapshot deserves measured confidence rather than permanence. Its largest peak-to-trough index decline was 3.2%, a separate backward-looking measure of the downside encountered in the observed series. Transparent national discovery ranks were 1,793 for momentum, 1,298 for stability, and 1,739 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks indicating higher placement among history-eligible ZIPs. None of these history measures is a forecast or investment recommendation.
Resale evidence supplies a distinct tension. In Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, the median sold price was $269,939, up 6.9% year over year, while 28 homes sold with median marketing time of 69 days. The same resale series reported 88 active listings, inventory of 52 homes, and 5.6 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 96.3%, and 11.1% of sales closed above list. Those signals describe ZIP resale liquidity and pricing, not rental transactions, rental comparables, or property economics. The faster sale-price change contrasts with the slower current rent increase and elevated income screen, while the marketing and sale-to-list measures challenge any simple claim of uniformly tight resale conditions. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is a 7.0% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
Housing counts reinforce why renter-side evidence matters while also setting limits on it. The ACS ZCTA reports 12,185 housing units and 11,345 occupied units, with a 6.9% vacancy rate. Of the vacant stock, 372 units were classified as for rent; that category does not identify their condition, price, bedroom count, or immediate availability. Renters account for 89.0% of occupied homes, and 6,544 units are in large multifamily structures. This is a renter-heavy and multifamily-heavy statistical stock profile, but it cannot establish the experience, vacancy, or rent of a particular building or apartment.
Wider geographies put the ZIP index below broader rent benchmarks without replacing ZIP evidence. For wider context only, Baltimore city’s city-context rent was about $1,799, Baltimore City county’s county-context rent was $1,801, and the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro’s metro-context rent was $1,936; each is a broader geography than this ZIP. The comparison confirms that the ZIP’s blended asking-rent index sits below all three context values, but it does not show why the difference exists or which local unit types account for it. City, county, and metro figures remain context rather than substitutes for ZIP-level rents, ZCTA survey measures, HUD standards, or direct ZIP resale observations.
The five-digit label 21201 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA label, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a median gross rent of $1,346 for occupied renter homes, and gross rent includes selected utilities. That survey measure is 16.7% below the current Zillow asking-rent index, yet the gap is not a simple market appreciation calculation because the universes differ in timing, occupancy, utility treatment, and rental coverage. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year survey measure of occupied renter homes; and HUD is an administrative standard.
The usable conclusion is a tension, not a prediction: current ZIP asking rent is below broader context rents and HUD’s two-bedroom standard, yet it remains demanding against local median income and nearly half of surveyed renter households clear the burden threshold. The stable but slower recent rent path adds continuity, while resale price growth sits beside slower sale-to-list signals and longer marketing time. A property-level review needs the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, utilities included, lease term, concessions, unit condition, available date, and the correct ZIP or ZCTA boundary. It also needs recent comparable sale details if applying the resale screen. Which of those unit-specific facts would materially change the arithmetic shown here?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI was $1,571, while the arithmetic income level associated with spending 30% of gross income on that monthly figure was $62,840. The ZCTA median household income was $45,640. ACS also recorded a 48.9% share of renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent. These are area-level screens and survey measures, not qualification rules or evidence about a particular renter.","title":"Income screen is the central rental tension"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the blended Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are not measured rents for available apartments. HUD’s two-bedroom standard of $1,857 is administrative and sits above the $1,571 ZIP ZORI, but neither source can substitute for current unit-specific advertised rents and included-utility terms.","title":"Bedroom figures are HUD-scaled estimates"},{"body":"The one-year ZORI change of 1.5% remained positive and slightly exceeded the three-year annualized pace, while falling below the five-year 2.7% pace. Complete history coverage supports continuity of measurement, but 2.8% annualized monthly variability and a 3.2% maximum drawdown show that a single current index value is not fixed. The measures are backward-looking, not forecasts.","title":"History is positive but slower than its longer pace"},{"body":"Redfin’s ZIP resale series showed a $269,939 median sold price and 6.9% annual price growth, but sales took a median 69 days and averaged 96.3% of list price. The resulting 7.0% annualized-rent-to-price figure is only a cross-source screen. It is not a property yield, cap rate, net return, or rental transaction measure.","title":"Resale signals do not translate into rental economics"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent index, ACS gross rent, HUD bedroom standards, and Redfin resale data each measure different populations, timing conventions, and transaction types, so direct comparisons can misstate unit-level economics.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS five-year estimates describe surveyed occupied homes rather than current listings or a specific building.","The resale observation covers for-sale activity only. Median price, days on market, supply, and sale-to-list results cannot establish rental demand, lease terms, operating costs, or investor outcomes.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits both ZIP ZORI and HUD benchmark limitations. Actual bedroom rent can differ with utilities, concessions, condition, lease length, availability date, and unit characteristics."],"qa":[{"a":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a matched ZCTA five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes. ACS gross rent also includes selected utilities. Different timing, populations, occupancy status, and utility treatment mean the gap is not a direct rent-growth calculation.","q":"Why is the Zillow rent figure different from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio, one-bedroom, two-bedroom, three-bedroom, and four-bedroom values are modelled monthly ZIP estimates. They scale the blended ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD fair-market-rent or small-area fair-market-rent figures are administrative standards, so neither the estimates nor HUD values are measured asking rents for a specific available apartment.","q":"Are the bedroom rent estimates observed market rents?"},{"a":"The observed rent history was positive over one, three, and five years, with the latest annual pace above the three-year pace but below the five-year pace. Complete coverage supports data continuity. However, monthly-return variability and the recorded maximum drawdown indicate that the current index should be treated as a dated measurement rather than a permanent level or forecast.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current index?"},{"a":"It is only annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the ZIP median sold price from Redfin’s rolling resale observation. It can flag a cross-source relationship for further review, but it excludes financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancies, operating costs, unit mix, and actual lease terms. It is therefore not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-to-price screen be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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