The immediate signal in 21202 is a rising asking-rent index set against a tighter household-income screen, rather than a clean read on an individual available unit. At its June 2026 endpoint, Zillow's current ZIP ZORI is $1,751 per month, 2.6% above the same month a year earlier. The five-digit label 21202 is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It benchmarks the ZIP's advertised-rent environment, but it is neither a quoted rent for a specific home nor a measure of occupied households' all-in housing costs.
The direct resale record supplies a counterweight. In Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation, median sold price was $230,948, up 0.4% year over year. The record counted 42 homes sold, with a 77-day median marketing time, 111 homes of inventory, and 8.0 months of supply. Sellers realized 95.7% of list price on average, while 9.8% of sales closed above list. These are ZIP resale observations, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by this median price produces a 9.1% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Thus, asking-rent growth is positive, but the observed marketing time, supply, and discount-to-list signal do not independently confirm frictionless resale liquidity.
History supports a longer positive rent path, although it does not strengthen into acceleration. Exact same-month ZORI change was 2.6% over one year, 1.9% annualized over three years, and 2.7% annualized over five years. The current annual pace therefore confirms the longer upward direction and exceeds the three-year rate, yet remains slightly below the five-year rate. The series has 100% coverage. Monthly-return variability annualizes to 3.0%, so one current index reading merits moderate, rather than absolute, confidence; the separate maximum drawdown was 5.8%, showing a historically observed setback. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,342 for momentum, 1,569 for stability, and 1,482 for balance, where lower ranks place higher. These measurements are backward-looking, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey describes a different universe: occupied renter homes, not asking listings. Its median gross rent is $1,515, and gross rent includes selected utilities. That survey measure cannot be read as a contemporaneous Zillow asking-rent quote, just as the asking index cannot be assumed to reflect utilities or tenant mix. For the household screen, ZCTA median household income is $59,377. Applying the arithmetic 30% threshold to the current ZORI produces required income of $70,040 and an asking-rent-to-income reading of 35.4%. The screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS also reports that 53.2% of its renter-household base has gross rent at or above that threshold; that aggregate burden does not establish the cost burden of any particular unit.
Stock and vacancy reinforce the need to separate counts from availability. The same ZCTA survey estimates 12,703 housing units and 1,842 vacant units, a 14.5% vacancy rate; 78.6% of occupied homes are renter occupied. A vacancy category is not a live listing count, a statement about condition, or evidence that a named apartment can be leased. The vacancy rate is a survey-based housing-stock measure, whereas Redfin inventory is a direct for-sale market measure, so the two should not be merged. The renter-heavy composition gives useful context for the ACS burden statistic, but it does not convert that population-level finding into proof about an applicant, a building, or a lease.
Bedroom detail requires an explicit model rather than an implied observation. Scaling ZIP ZORI by the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,284 for a studio, $1,425 for one bedroom, $1,751 for two bedrooms, $2,223 for three bedrooms, and $2,462 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The FY2026 HUD standards underlying the ladder run from $1,362 for a studio to $2,611 for four bedrooms. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; it is useful here solely as the local scaling structure. Actual unit rents may differ; the index blends rental types, and the model does not observe a property's utilities, lease terms, condition, or concession package.
Relative price context is narrower in the ZIP but must remain wider-scope context. The Baltimore city context Zillow rent is $1,799, the Baltimore City county context rent is $1,801, and the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro context rent is $1,936; each exceeds the ZIP index. The city and county figures do not create ZIP-level rent comparables, and the metro figure does not describe a local building. Similarly, city, county, and metro household, vacancy, and rental-market metrics are context only, even where they point in a similar direction. The practical contrast is that the ZIP's current asking index sits below those broader rent benchmarks while its local household-income screen and resale-liquidity signs still require separate interpretation.
No source in this packet establishes a property's rent, sale proceeds, operating expenses, vacancy duration, financing, or tenant eligibility. A property-level reading would need to verify the specific asking rent and effective rent after concessions, bedroom count, included utilities, lease length, occupancy status, availability date, physical condition, and truly comparable completed sales and active listings. It would also need to distinguish an advertised unit from a completed lease and an individual resale from the Redfin ZIP median. The data support a bounded tension, not a prediction: the current asking-rent index and its longer history are positive, while the income screen and the direct resale observation add constraints. The useful decision question is whether a specific unit's documented terms match the relevant universe, rather than whether any one ZIP statistic can answer every property-level question.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI shows a positive same-month change and a positive longer history, but it represents a blended typical asking-rent index. It should be read separately from ACS gross rent, which summarizes occupied renter homes and selected utilities, and from HUD's administrative standards. That separation prevents a ZIP headline from being treated as a signed lease or a specific unit quote.","title":"Asking-rent strength is an index signal"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month observation is limited to ZIP for-sale activity, yet its supply, marketing-time, and sale-to-list data add a useful constraint. The annualized-rent-to-price figure is a cross-source arithmetic screen, not an operating statement. The resale evidence can coexist with positive rent-index history, so neither series validates liquidity, expenses, or outcomes for an individual property.","title":"Resale evidence tempers the screening ratio"},{"body":"ACS income and rent-burden statistics show that the current asking-rent index sits above the income level produced by the 30% arithmetic test. The burden measure is valuable evidence of aggregate stress in the matched ZCTA survey, but it does not identify a tenant, establish eligibility, or prove that a particular listing is unaffordable after utilities or concessions.","title":"Affordability is a population screen, not a lease decision"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates obtained by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They do not observe completed leases or asking rents by bedroom. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, while ZORI is a blended asking-rent index; using the two together is a transparent model, not a measurement of any building.","title":"Bedroom figures require source discipline"}],"risks":["A blended ZIP asking-rent index can differ from a unit's effective rent because concessions, utilities, lease term, furnishing, condition, and availability are not observed in the index.","The ACS ZCTA survey has a different population and time frame from current listings; its gross-rent, burden, vacancy, and income measures cannot establish circumstances for any individual household or apartment.","Redfin resale statistics describe completed and active for-sale market signals, not rental transactions, operating expenses, financing terms, repair needs, or future sale proceeds for an individual property.","The history ranks, growth rates, variability, and drawdown summarize past ZIP index behavior only; they do not forecast rents, prices, liquidity, or investment results for a future transaction."],"qa":[{"a":"The matched ZCTA ACS figure is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a current typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. Differences in timing, population, and included costs mean the figures describe different evidence universes rather than competing quotes for the same apartment.","q":"Why is the ACS gross-rent figure not a substitute for ZIP ZORI?"},{"a":"Each bedroom figure scales the ZIP ZORI according to the local HUD studio-through-four-bedroom ladder. This produces a transparent modelled distribution centered on the ZIP index, not a sample of completed leases. HUD's role is administrative and bedroom specific; the calculation does not observe utilities, concessions, building quality, lease length, or a unit's actual rent.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates created?"},{"a":"It provides direct ZIP for-sale evidence on sold price, sales volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior over a rolling three-month window. Those data contextualize potential resale liquidity and create tension with rent-index strength, but they neither measure rental transactions nor establish expenses, financing, valuation, or returns for a property.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block say, and what does it not say?"},{"a":"The unresolved facts include a unit's advertised and effective rent, concessions, bedroom configuration, utilities, lease term, availability, condition, and occupancy. A property-level comparison also requires genuinely comparable active listings and completed sales. ZIP index, survey, administrative, and resale aggregates cannot replace those property documents or prove circumstances for a particular tenant.","q":"Which property-level facts remain unresolved by this packet?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1420.260003},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1397.591076},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1399.948215},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1395.150886},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1396.278169},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1406.066721},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1418.444173},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1423.529268},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1401.965415},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1382.059801},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1381.920749},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1394.905216},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1409.960221},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1420.004031},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1426.817119},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1427.948556},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1441.02488},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1445.138581},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1439.942454},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1429.195079},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1409.900725},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1450.259822},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1458.938794},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1484.067663},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1460.903431},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1446.691219},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1438.663682},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1434.563754},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1426.978714},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1435.419188},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1427.349049},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1433.091891},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1443.189947},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1457.578306},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1453.01241},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1436.036451},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1449.247098},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1461.270761},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1466.503466},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1472.103677},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1473.372985},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1464.195369},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1471.204426},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1470.700555},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1474.715586},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1446.083424},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1451.763329},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1448.705467},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1448.384937},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1426.808622},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1411.490336},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1409.258751},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1408.57702},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1434.377903},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1422.887553},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1417.130517},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1397.298463},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1411.795633},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1426.481249},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1459.710514},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1489.745343},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1530.947278},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1551.631089},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1570.622024},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1589.483288},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1594.526709},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1607.522072},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1631.298375},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1652.451989},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1655.092411},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1635.196833},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1622.644566},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1614.775271},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1621.287996},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1638.374452},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1636.891468},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1630.434235},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1623.91161},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1639.427089},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1647.176279},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1648.779352},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1644.253792},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1647.09359},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1647.437986},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1649.178982},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1652.445449},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1651.605399},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1659.665153},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1664.43308},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1666.670418},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1662.215258},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1648.890759},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1651.315758},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1658.58295},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1677.490176},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1688.949395},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1697.476884},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1686.730012},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1687.487658},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1689.526457},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1696.206733},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1693.826493},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1690.457663},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1697.82255},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1705.589708},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1707.780504},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1716.461092},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1717.050801},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1719.072509},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1706.148635},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1707.654933},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1707.744096},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1707.093559},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1715.244401},{"period":"202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