In 21209, Zillow’s ZIP asking-rent index for June 2026 is $1,853 per month, up 5.2% year over year. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a rent quote for a specific available unit. Backward-looking same-month history shows annualized changes of 5.1% over one year, 3.7% over three years, and 4.7% over five years. Recent growth therefore confirms, and modestly exceeds, the longer growth path rather than breaking from it. The annualized monthly-return variability measure is 2.7%, indicating relatively limited historical month-to-month movement. Separately, the deepest historical drawdown was 4.3%, so a current rent snapshot should be treated as a current index reading, not a fixed floor. History coverage is 98.5%.
The history record is categorized as stable growth, but its discovery measures should remain descriptive rather than predictive. Among history-eligible ZIPs, 21209 ranks 483 on momentum, 1,059 on stability, and 324 on the balanced measure; lower ranks indicate stronger placement in each transparent national discovery screen. The stronger balanced placement reflects a history that combines sustained gains with comparatively contained variability, while the weaker stability rank cautions against treating the recent path as perfectly smooth. These are backward-looking Zillow ZIP ZORI measurements, not forecasts, investment recommendations, or evidence of future rent performance. The limited variability supports somewhat more confidence in the representativeness of one current index reading than a highly volatile series would, but the prior drawdown still establishes meaningful historical movement.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder; they are not measured bedroom asking rents. The resulting monthly range runs from $1,359 for a studio to $2,605 for a four-bedroom, with a modelled two-bedroom estimate of $1,853. That two-bedroom estimate closely tracks the local HUD two-bedroom standard of $1,857. HUD FMR or SAFMR values are administrative, bedroom-specific standards rather than market asking rents, and their alignment here should not be read as proof that available two-bedroom listings lease at the modelled figure. The ladder is most useful for keeping unit-size comparisons internally consistent when reviewing property-level listings, lease terms, and stated utility treatment.
The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the match for the Census ZCTA, but a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the matched ACS 2024 five-year survey, occupied renter homes had a median gross rent of $1,655 with a $62 margin of error; gross rent includes selected utilities and is not an asking-rent series. The current asking-rent index is therefore about 12% above that occupied-renter benchmark. Applying a 30% income screen to the $1,853 index produces required household income of $74,120, versus ZCTA median household income of $91,437. That 24.3% asking-rent-to-income calculation is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. Even so, 50.3% of surveyed renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on rent, showing that aggregate income and a typical rent screen do not settle household-level affordability.
The matched ZCTA contains 12,071 housing units, and its overall vacancy rate is 3.7%. Renters occupy 42.5% of occupied homes, making the area neither exclusively renter-oriented nor exclusively owner-oriented in the ACS stock mix. Of the vacant stock, 257 units were classified as for rent, a category that is informative about the survey’s stock composition but does not establish that any particular unit is available, competitively priced, or comparable with Zillow’s blended index. Housing counts, renter share, and vacancy are ACS survey measures for the ZCTA universe. They should not be used to infer the condition, lease-up status, concessions, or turnover timing of a specific building or apartment.
Wider geographies provide useful but non-substitutable context: Baltimore city’s asking-rent context is $1,799, Baltimore County’s asking-rent context is $1,728, and the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson metro asking-rent context is $1,936. Thus, the ZIP’s $1,853 Zillow index sits above the named city and county contexts while remaining below the named metro context. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-market context only; none is a ZIP estimate, a direct substitute for the ZCTA ACS gross-rent measure, or a property comp. The contrast also reinforces the source distinction: a Zillow asking-rent index, ACS gross rent for occupied renter homes, and HUD administrative standards can move differently because they describe different populations and measurement purposes.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $432,402, up 0.6% year over year, with 68 homes sold and a median 33 days on market. Active listings numbered 127, inventory was 62 homes, and inventory increased 13.4% from a year earlier; months of supply stood at 2.8. Average sale-to-list was 99.4%, while 28.8% of sales closed above list and 54.7% went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 5.14% cross-source screening ratio only, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The central tension is that the rent index and its recent history strengthened more quickly than resale prices, while resale inventory increased; limited supply and near-list sale pricing partially challenge any simple interpretation of a weak for-sale market.
Several limits remain material. Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin reports ZIP resale activity; none alone establishes the economics of a particular property. A property-level review should verify the exact address and delivery geography, current advertised rent, bedroom count, square footage, lease length, included utilities, concessions, availability date, and property condition. For resale comparisons, the relevant checks are recent sale dates, property type, condition, listing history, final sale terms, and whether the comp is genuinely comparable. The evidence supports a structured comparison of rent, household burden, stock, and resale signals, but it does not establish a future path or a conclusion about any individual unit.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow ZIP asking-rent index is $1,853 and rose 5.2% year over year. Exact same-month history shows one-year growth above both the three-year and five-year annualized rates, so recent direction confirms the broader stable-growth pattern rather than reversing it. Historical variability is modest, but the prior drawdown means the current index should not be treated as permanently fixed.","title":"Recent rent growth extends the established path"},{"body":"The ZCTA ACS median gross rent is below Zillow’s current asking-rent index, which is expected because ACS measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The arithmetic 30% income screen is below the area’s median household income, yet half of surveyed renter households report high rent burden. That contrast prevents an aggregate income comparison from functioning as a household-level affordability verdict.","title":"The affordability screens describe different households and measures"},{"body":"The matched ZCTA has a low overall vacancy rate and a substantial renter share within its occupied housing stock. The ACS count of units classified as vacant for rent is useful for describing survey-era stock composition, but it cannot confirm current availability, pricing, unit condition, concessions, or lease-up timing for a particular rental property.","title":"Housing stock data signal limited vacancy, not guaranteed availability"},{"body":"Direct ZIP resale data show modest home-price growth alongside higher inventory, even as the asking-rent index posted stronger recent growth. At the same time, short supply, near-list average sale pricing, and a meaningful share of quick off-market listings indicate active for-sale liquidity. This is a tension between separate market observations, not proof that rent conditions cause resale outcomes or vice versa.","title":"Resale conditions create a cross-market tension"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the current asking rent, condition, size, concessions, or utility treatment of a specific unit.","ACS figures describe a matched ZCTA statistical area through a five-year survey period, not an identical USPS delivery ZIP or a live census of currently available rental homes.","HUD bedroom standards support the modelled bedroom ladder but are administrative benchmarks rather than measured asking rents, lease transactions, or evidence that a listed apartment will rent at that amount.","Redfin resale statistics are direct for-sale observations, while the annualized rent-to-price figure combines sources; it cannot represent financing, expenses, property condition, net income, or a property-specific return."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not a current market asking-rent observation.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD rents differ for the same label?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates that scale the overall Zillow asking-rent index using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They help structure a unit-size comparison, but they are not measured bedroom rents, listing averages, lease transactions, or guarantees of availability at those amounts.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures measured rents for available apartments?"},{"a":"The history indicates a generally stable growth path, with recent one-year growth stronger than the longer annualized rates. Modest annualized monthly-return variability makes the current reading more representative than a highly erratic series might be, but the documented maximum drawdown shows that the index has still experienced meaningful backward-looking declines.","q":"What does the rent history say about confidence in the current index?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling ZIP resale data should be used only to describe the local for-sale market: sold prices, transaction volume, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, expected return, or substitute for property-level financial analysis.","q":"How should the resale data be used alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1413.075518},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1448.922844},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1460.527896},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1463.659063},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1473.684087},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1469.606803},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1484.667429},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1498.535356},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1537.809571},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1550.167069},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1573.347298},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1571.882098},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1586.189536},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1583.409273},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1589.415146},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1591.141814},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1602.847656},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1602.710561},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1608.604699},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1600.051313},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1588.487736},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1609.135255},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1621.416778},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1652.802874},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1644.082547},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1654.3191},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1645.411017},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1656.167592},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1657.871023},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1660.676432},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1666.570139},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1667.571837},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1661.100227},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1629.750816},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1602.421732},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1596.609077},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1608.709537},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1624.614049},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1637.745975},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1644.808975},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1661.651751},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1681.326278},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1693.432233},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1706.510162},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1726.202977},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1750.652248},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1780.161164},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1775.865468},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1787.063745},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1778.494747},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1790.13469},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1778.925286},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1774.230604},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1762.234053},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1759.095748},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1761.669403},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1763.30326},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1768.371443},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1770.014679},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1783.930695},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1785.364456},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1797.12896},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1799.78611},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1820.045967},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1833.6311},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1852.984037}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":66,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":0.9850746268656716,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1762.234053,"endRent":1852.984037,"change":0.05149712312363319,"cagr":0.05149712312363319},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1660.676432,"endRent":1852.984037,"change":0.11580076726228872,"cagr":0.037199308539158205},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1469.606803,"endRent":1852.984037,"change":0.2608706173769666,"cagr":0.04745193854647689}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04255454453324392,"annualizedVolatility":0.027024183525991664,"consecutiveReturnCount":64}}