At $2,182 in June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP 21211 ZORI puts the current asking-rent reference above the surrounding context values reported below. The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a signed-lease series or a bedroom-specific rent observation. Its exact same-month one-year increase of 3.66% supplies the immediate directional signal, but says nothing by itself about an individual available home. It can therefore differ from a unit quote because the index’s composition is broader than any single property.
That immediate gain sits inside a longer positive but decelerating historical path. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 4.73% across three years and 5.22% across five years, both faster than the latest one-year reading. Thus recent direction confirms the longer upward sign but breaks from its earlier pace; it is a moderation, not a reversal. The history offers 121 monthly observations and 99.18% coverage through the stated endpoint, giving the series broad continuity. These are backward-looking measurements only, not a forecast or an investment recommendation.
Monthly ZORI returns showed 3.35% annualized variability, so the sequence moved around its trend rather than following a uniform climb. Separately, maximum drawdown—the worst peak-to-trough historical decline—was 2.93%. Those features make the current index a useful broad reference, while reducing confidence that one snapshot translates precisely to any live listing. The supplied history classification is mixed. On transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, momentum ranked 560, stability ranked 2,098, and the balanced reading ranked 1,022; lower rank means a stronger discovery position. These comparative ranks describe recorded history, not future performance. Those rank measures do not measure availability, unit quality, lease concessions, or an owner’s operating results.
Source definitions explain why several rent figures need not agree. The matched ACS 2024 ZCTA five-year survey reports a $1,594 median gross rent for occupied renter homes, with selected utilities included; it is not a current asking-rent measure and sits 36.9% below ZORI. HUD’s FY2026 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $1,857. Scaling ZORI by that local HUD ladder creates modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents: $1,600 for a studio, $1,775 for one bedroom, $2,182 for two, $2,771 for three, and $3,068 for four. The ladder is a consistency device, not evidence of unit-specific rents.
The $87,280 annual household income attached to a 30% screen is simple arithmetic from the ZIP index, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. It exceeds the matched ZCTA’s $82,828 median household income, and the index-to-income screen is 31.6%. Separately, 42.1% of ACS occupied renter households were reported as spending at least 30% of income on rent; this burden statistic cannot establish affordability of a particular unit. For wider context only, Baltimore city-context asking rent was $1,798.89, Baltimore City county-context asking rent was $1,801, and Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro-context asking rent was $1,936. Each broader scope is below the ZIP index and cannot substitute for ZIP evidence.
ACS describes a housing base of 8,880 units: 8,192 occupied and 688 vacant, for a 7.7% vacancy rate. Renters account for 39.5% of occupied homes. The recorded structure mix includes 5,919 single-family units and 1,556 large-multifamily units, indicating that the ZORI blend spans more than one housing form. Within ACS vacancy categories, 199 units were vacant for rent and 124 were vacant for sale. These survey counts portray the area in aggregate; they do not prove that a specific unit is available, competitively priced, or in any particular condition.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a for-sale market record, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $326,926, essentially unchanged with a 0.02% year-over-year decrease. It recorded 94 homes sold and a median 31 days on market. Inventory stood at 61 homes, with 2.0 months of supply; the average sale-to-list ratio was 101.27%, and 37.4% of sales closed above list. The annualized ZORI divided by median sold price produces an 8.01% cross-source screening ratio only. The tension is clear: flat resale pricing challenges any reading of rent’s historical increases as a matched price move, while supply and above-list sale signals describe comparatively firm resale liquidity within this distinct for-sale universe.
The figures have different timing, samples, and purposes: ZORI is an index, ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is a standard, and Redfin aggregates completed resales. None supplies unit-level rent, utility responsibility, lease structure, property condition, or transaction concessions. A property-level review would need the advertised asking rent, bedroom count, which utilities are paid by the tenant, lease term, availability date, and the property’s relevant sale record and list history before comparing it with these area screens. They also cannot align the different source dates or resolve the survey-versus-index distinction for an individual address. The evidence does not identify a qualifying applicant, a specific vacancy, or a future market outcome. Does the property-level record reconcile the advertised terms with the appropriate source universe?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP index is $2,182 and the exact same-month one-year rise is 3.66%. Longer annualized changes of 4.73% over three years and 5.22% over five years were faster. The evidence therefore records continued rent growth with a slower recent pace, rather than a reversal. ZORI remains a blended asking-rent index, so it should not be used as a quote for a particular bedroom or address.","title":"Rent growth continued, but the recent pace softened"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen converts the ZIP index into $87,280 of annual household income, versus an $82,828 matched-ZCTA median household income. ACS also records 42.1% of occupied renter households at or above the burden threshold. These are area-level comparisons: the income calculation is not advice or applicant qualification, and the burden share does not establish what any particular tenant or unit can support.","title":"Area affordability measures create a budget tension"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale data showed a $326,926 median sold price, down 0.02% year over year, alongside 2.0 months of supply and a 101.27% average sale-to-list ratio. This creates a cross-market tension: resale price was flat while ZORI history remained positive. The figures describe completed for-sale transactions and resale liquidity, not rental transactions or unit-level rental economics.","title":"Resale pricing was flat despite active sale signals"},{"body":"ACS reports $1,594 median gross rent among occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while HUD’s $1,857 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard. Neither measures current asking rent. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates produced by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are useful for internally consistent screening but are not observed bedroom rents.","title":"Bedroom figures are a modelled ladder, not rent comps"}],"risks":["A blended asking-rent index can differ materially from a specific property’s advertised rent because rental type, bedroom count, utility responsibility, and lease terms are not aligned at the unit level.","The ACS ZCTA is a statistical geography and five-year survey rather than a USPS delivery ZIP or a current listing feed, so sampling, timing, and scope limit direct comparison.","The history is complete enough to describe past index movement, but decelerating gains, monthly variability, and a recorded drawdown leave a single current reading insufficient to establish a stable property-specific price.","Redfin’s aggregated completed-sales record cannot identify the condition, financing, concessions, property type, or list history of a prospective property; its rent-price ratio remains cross-source screening only."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI measures typical observed asking rents blended across rental types in Zillow’s ZIP market. ACS is a matched-ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Their samples, timing, and definitions differ, so matching values are not expected.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD show different rent amounts?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled estimates created by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the current ZIP ZORI level. They inherit ZORI’s ZIP-wide asking-rent reference and HUD’s bedroom spacing. The packet contains no direct unit-level observations of advertised or signed rents by bedroom, condition, or utility treatment.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents for available units?"},{"a":"The 3.66% exact same-month one-year increase continues the upward direction, but it is slower than the 4.73% three-year and 5.22% five-year annualized changes. The 99.18% coverage supports confidence in the historical record’s continuity. Variability and maximum drawdown still mean this backward-looking series cannot forecast an individual listing result.","q":"Does the history indicate acceleration or deceleration?"},{"a":"The 8.01% figure annualizes ZIP ZORI and divides it by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price. It simply juxtaposes a rental asking-rent index with an aggregated completed-resale statistic from a different source universe. It is not a property-level economic measure and does not account for property condition, expenses, financing, taxes, concessions, or transaction-specific facts.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price screen be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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