The five-digit label 21212 is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and has a matching Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. For June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $1,885 a month, a 1.97% exact same-month one-year increase. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is neither a set of signed leases nor a measure of every occupied rental home. The headline is therefore a current asking-rent benchmark, not a guarantee for a unit. Its modest annual increase introduces the central tension: the longer rent record remains positive, while the ZIP’s for-sale evidence shows tight transactional signals despite a small price retreat. Those separate evidence streams cannot be collapsed into one market measure.
That history supports a cooling label only in a backward-looking sense. The direct Zillow ZIP ZORI series recorded annualized, exact same-month growth of 5.07% over three years and 5.37% over five years, well above the current one-year pace. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path. Its month-to-month return sequence produces 3.26% annualized variability, evidence that observed rent levels have moved around the trend and reason to place measured, not absolute, confidence in one current snapshot. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 4.45%, showing that earlier index levels have experienced material declines before. Coverage is 98.48%, documenting a nearly complete series without making any one reading immutable. Transparent national discovery ranks are 924 for momentum, 1,995 for stability, and 1,381 for the balanced score; lower ranks are higher among history-eligible ZIPs. These are measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source scope explains why rent figures do not line up mechanically. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,368; it surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That older, occupied-home gross-rent measure is 37.8% below the current ZORI asking-rent index, an expected universe difference rather than a direct discrepancy in the same units. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,857. It is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent, and it must not be read as a ZIP lease quote. ACS, HUD, and Zillow each answer a different question, with different timing, populations, and rent definitions.
To create a bedroom frame, the ZIP ZORI is scaled with the local HUD ladder. This produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,383 for a studio, $1,534 for one bedroom, $1,885 for two bedrooms, $2,394 for three bedrooms, and $2,650 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: the calculation carries the blended ZORI level and the HUD bedroom proportions into each band. A specific listing can differ because its actual bedroom count, utility treatment, term, condition, and availability are not represented by this scaling exercise. The ladder is useful for a consistent screen, not evidence that every advertised unit trades at those amounts.
At a 30% share of income, the $1,885 monthly asking-rent screen requires $75,400 of annual household income. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $96,685, and the index-to-income screen is 23.4%. This comparison is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; a ZIPwide median does not establish what any renter earns. The ACS burden table supplies a second, distinct signal: 42.5% of renter households are recorded as spending at least the same threshold on gross rent. Because that survey measure concerns occupied renter homes and selected utilities, it neither proves a particular unit is burdensome nor resolves whether today’s asking rent is affordable to a particular household.
The housing-stock base also argues against reading a ZIP average as a single inventory condition. The matched ZCTA has 13,827 housing units and a 6.19% overall vacancy rate, while renters represent 31.2% of occupied units. Its stock tally includes 10,748 single-family units but only 526 units in large multifamily structures, a composition that helps describe the survey area without identifying a listing type. Of the vacant units, 205 are classified as for rent. That category is not proof that a particular dwelling is available, appropriately priced, or comparable to the ZORI basket. Vacancy and tenure here are area-level ACS estimates, not unit-level leasing evidence.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a for-sale record, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $432,902, down 1.57% year over year; 158 homes sold with a median marketing time of 34 days. The inventory count was 88 homes and months of supply were 1.7, even as the active-listing count increased year over year. Average sale-to-list was 102.07%, and 50.05% of sales were above list. Tight supply and sale-to-list signals challenge a simple reading of the cooling rent history, while the lower median sale price and rising listings temper that challenge. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 5.23%, only a cross-source screening ratio; it does not measure property-specific costs, cash flow, or returns.
For wider context, the City of Baltimore context has a $1,799 asking-rent index, the Baltimore City county context has $1,801, and the Baltimore–Columbia–Towson metro context has $1,936. These wider-area figures frame the ZIP but are not ZIP rental comps or substitutes for ZCTA survey measures; city, county, and metro scopes remain context only. Limits include different observation dates, ZCTA-versus-USPS geography, blended asking rent versus gross rent, administrative HUD standards, and resale rather than leasing evidence. Concrete property-level checks are the unit’s current ask, bedroom count, utility inclusion, lease term, condition, incentives, availability, and whether a sale is actually in the Redfin window. Do those checks place the actual unit near the appropriate current ZIP screen, or make that screen inapplicable?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current $1,885 ZORI rose 1.97% over the exact same month, while the three- and five-year annualized gains were 5.07% and 5.37%. The recent pace is therefore slower than the broader historical path. Measured variation and the prior drawdown mean the current index is an informative benchmark, not a fixed level or a forecast.","title":"Recent growth has cooled"},{"body":"The $1,368 ACS median gross rent and $1,885 ZORI do not conflict on their face. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes with selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks a current typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. HUD’s bedroom standard is administrative. The resulting bedroom figures are consistently scaled estimates, not observations of actual bedroom rents.","title":"The source gap is expected"},{"body":"The $75,400 income figure is simply the arithmetic household-income amount associated with devoting 30% to the ZIP asking-rent index. It should be read beside, not as a replacement for, the ACS burden finding that 42.5% of renter households spend at least that share on gross rent. Neither metric determines affordability or burden for a particular renter or dwelling.","title":"Income screening and burden answer different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct resale window shows 1.7 months of supply, average sale-to-list above 100%, and a meaningful above-list share. Yet the median sold price declined year over year and active listings increased. That mixed resale evidence challenges a one-directional cooling story but does not convert sale outcomes into rental transactions or property economics.","title":"Resale evidence is mixed"}],"risks":["The ZIP identifier and its matched Census ZCTA are not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so source boundaries and included housing observations can differ before any rent comparison begins.","ZORI’s blended, current asking-rent universe differs from ACS occupied-home gross rent, including selected utilities, and from HUD administrative standards; none establishes the current quote for a specific unit.","The 30% income screen and area burden rate are population-level arithmetic and survey measures. They cannot establish a particular household’s income, utility obligation, rent burden, or qualification.","Redfin resale measures and the ZORI-to-price percentage are cross-source screens, not property economics. Historical returns, variability, and drawdown describe past index behavior and do not forecast future results."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,885 ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. The $1,368 ACS figure comes from a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, universe, and definition differ, so the comparison shows a source gap, not two quotes for the same unit.","q":"Why is ZORI higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with local HUD bedroom ratios. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than asking rent. The calculation gives a consistent benchmark, but it cannot verify a unit’s listed rent, utility package, layout, lease term, condition, or availability.","q":"Are the bedroom amounts observed rents?"},{"a":"No. The history reports same-month backward-looking changes through June 2026. Its slower one-year pace differs from stronger three- and five-year annualized changes, while measured return variability and drawdown indicate prior movement. Those statistics help assess how much confidence to place in one current reading; they do not predict future rents or constitute investment guidance.","q":"Does recent rent growth forecast next year’s outcome?"},{"a":"It describes direct ZIP for-sale outcomes over a rolling three-month period, including sold prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list behavior. The annualized ZORI-to-price percentage is only a cross-source screen. It omits unit attributes and property-specific costs and cannot be treated as a rental comp, a cash-flow measure, or a return calculation.","q":"What does the resale screen describe?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1480.464108},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1414.634296},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1438.242709},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1451.906739},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1451.338948},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1448.569181},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1441.106862},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1461.324703},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1481.231458},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1476.487817},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1484.848166},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1475.777938},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1516.769502},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1524.604311},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1552.545913},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1573.246135},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1585.845258},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1610.33428},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1611.061642},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1614.198068},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1594.879319},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1573.14629},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1566.075896},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1589.020755},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1618.873162},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1639.461544},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1623.036651},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1616.713013},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1625.124592},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1640.62725},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1660.766309},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1675.791116},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1682.838198},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1689.471566},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1684.693939},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1680.505504},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1676.006852},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1697.58957},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1722.244927},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1734.50446},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1712.487175},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1708.812678},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1725.193724},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1741.767998},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1775.335506},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1802.020962},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1802.466279},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1785.530598},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1771.995989},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1801.353265},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1813.03931},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1834.6615},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1848.727312},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1858.29711},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1854.462934},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1851.409415},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1843.388767},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1842.486917},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1863.053713},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1890.105567},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1911.058126},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1886.898366},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1882.578811},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1874.166618},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1885.093773}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":65,"firstPeriod":"2021-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":66,"coverageRatio":0.9848484848484849,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1848.727312,"endRent":1885.093773,"change":0.019671078997939295,"cagr":0.019671078997939295},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1625.124592,"endRent":1885.093773,"change":0.15996876933605608,"cagr":0.050708144929050736},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1451.338948,"endRent":1885.093773,"change":0.2988652827085847,"cagr":0.05368991102510412}},"maxDrawdown":-0.044465658872967384,"annualizedVolatility":0.0326488470253469,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}