In June 2026, 21213’s $1,748 Zillow ZORI stands 31.9% above the $1,325 ACS median gross rent, creating a sharp current-cost versus occupied-home-history tension. Median household income is $51,344, while a 30% screen applied to the current asking-rent index produces required annual income of $69,920. Annualized asking rent equals 40.9% of that median income. This is arithmetic, not affordability advice, a forecast, or an applicant qualification rule; it simply shows the scale difference between the index and the ZIP’s reported household-income benchmark.
The backward-looking Zillow history remains positive but has decelerated relative to its longer path. The exact same-month one-year increase was 5.12%, versus 5.67% annualized across three years and 7.85% across five years. Thus, the recent direction does not break the longer upward path, but it confirms slower growth than the extended record. Monthly ZORI changes translate to 4.22% annualized variability, so one current rent snapshot deserves less confidence than a smooth trend line might imply. The largest historical peak-to-trough decline was 3.81%, a meaningful but contained reversal. Coverage is complete across 122 observations and 121 consecutive monthly returns. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs place momentum at 254, stability at 2,683, and the balanced measure at 1,124; lower ranks are higher, and these are descriptive discovery measures rather than forecasts or investment recommendations.
Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a record of one unit’s signed lease. The local bedroom ladder produces modelled estimates of $1,282 for a studio, $1,422 for one bedroom, $1,748 for two bedrooms, $2,220 for three bedrooms, and $2,458 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder; they are never measured bedroom rents. HUD’s two-bedroom standard is $1,857, placing the current ZORI at 94.1% of that benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so the comparison should not be read as a market lease quote.
The five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year estimate is a survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities, unlike an asking-rent index. Its $1,325 median has a $56 margin of error, adding survey uncertainty to the 31.9% current gap. For wider context only, the City of Baltimore context asking-rent index is $1,798.89, the Baltimore City county context asking-rent index is $1,801, and the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro context index is $1,936. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography context, not substitutes for the ZIP observation.
The matched ZCTA has 14,492 housing units, of which 12,009 are occupied and 2,483 are vacant, for a 17.1% vacancy rate. Renters occupy 48.0% of occupied homes. The stock is predominantly single-family, with 12,845 such units compared with 680 units in large multifamily structures; that composition helps frame why a broad asking-rent index may blend unlike dwellings. There are 236 units classified as vacant for rent, but that count does not establish availability, condition, price, or timing for a specific home. ACS reports that 51.9% of renter households are rent burdened at 30% or more of income. That burden is an area-level occupied-household measure, not proof that any particular prospective tenant or unit is burdened.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation belongs solely to the for-sale market, not to rental transactions. The median sold price was $129,471, down 7.52% year over year, while 123 homes sold with a median 60 days on market. Inventory was 248 homes, up 26.1%, and months of supply reached 6.1. These are resale liquidity and supply signals, not rental comparables. The 100.61% average sale-to-list ratio, 23.36% sold-above-list share, and 21.81% share going off market within two weeks are also resale closing and marketing signals only. Falling median sold price alongside greater inventory challenges the otherwise positive rent-history path, although above-list outcomes show that aggregate price change does not describe every resale outcome.
Annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the Redfin median sold price yields a 16.20% cross-source screening ratio. It is only a screening ratio: it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a statement about property economics. The ratio combines an asking-rent index with a resale median and contains no operating costs, vacancy experience for a specific property, financing terms, or lease information. The ZIP’s 6.1 months of supply also exceeds the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro context of 2.6 months, reinforcing the resale-market tension with rent growth. Neither comparison resolves whether a particular available dwelling matches the index, the modelled bedroom ladder, or the resale median.
Decision use should remain bounded by the evidence universes and their timing. Check the actual advertised rent, legal bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, property condition, days listed, and directly comparable active listings before treating the ZIP index as relevant to a unit. For a resale candidate, confirm the specific transaction history, list-price changes, condition, and current competitive inventory rather than applying the ZIP median sold price mechanically. ACS uncertainty, ZCTA-versus-delivery-ZIP boundaries, high historical variability, and the separation between rental and resale sources all limit precision. The central property-level question is whether the specific unit’s current asking terms resemble the broad ZIP index closely enough for these area measures to be informative.
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is materially above the ACS median gross-rent estimate, while the arithmetic income screen also exceeds local median household income. This is a meaningful affordability tension, but the measures cover different populations and cost concepts. ACS is occupied renter housing with selected utilities, whereas Zillow measures a blended asking-rent index.","title":"Current asking-rent pressure exceeds the ACS occupied-renter benchmark"},{"body":"The one-year history measure remains positive, yet it trails both the three-year and five-year annualized rates. That pattern indicates deceleration rather than a reversal of the longer observed rent path. Elevated historical variability means the current index should be treated as a broad benchmark with a wider confidence range than a stable series would support.","title":"Rent growth is still positive, but the recent pace is slower"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price year over year alongside expanding inventory and a longer supply position than the metro context. That challenges a simple narrative of uniformly strengthening housing conditions. Sale-to-list outcomes remain relatively firm, however, showing that resale price trends, listing competition, and individual transactions can diverge.","title":"Resale supply and price direction challenge the rental trend"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to ZIP ZORI. They provide a consistent way to translate the broad asking-rent index across bedroom sizes, but they do not measure signed rents, advertised rents, unit quality, utilities, or availability for a particular bedroom count.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaling outputs, not observed lease medians"}],"risks":["The gap between the current asking-rent index and ACS gross rent mixes different housing universes and periods, so it cannot establish what any listed unit will lease for or whether utilities are included.","Redfin resale figures describe sold homes and active for-sale inventory, not rental transactions, tenant demand, landlord operations, or the economics of a specific property being evaluated.","ACS estimates are survey-based ZCTA measures with margins of error, and the ZCTA boundary is statistical rather than identical to a USPS delivery ZIP or a particular address.","Positive historical rent growth and the screening ratio are backward-looking measurements only; neither incorporates property condition, leasing terms, operating costs, financing, or future market outcomes."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference can reflect timing, unit mix, occupancy status, and cost definitions without proving an error in either source.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index differ from ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled estimates, produced by scaling the ZIP-wide Zillow ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for consistent size-based orientation, but they are not measured advertised rents, signed lease rents, or evidence about the condition, utility package, or availability of any individual unit.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures observed rents for apartments in this ZIP?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct ZIP resale observation. It is a cross-source screening ratio only, designed to show the mathematical relationship between a rent index and a resale-price median. It excludes expenses, financing, repairs, taxes, insurance, vacancy experience, and property-specific lease terms.","q":"What does the Redfin screening ratio mean?"},{"a":"The complete history supports use of the series as a backward-looking ZIP benchmark, but the annualized variability and prior drawdown show that monthly changes have not been perfectly smooth. Recent growth remains positive but is slower than the longer annualized path, so a reader should verify current unit-level asking terms instead of relying solely on one index reading.","q":"How should the history measures affect confidence in the current rent snapshot?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1038.067838},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1023.379464},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1020.87921},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1021.825657},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1047.879105},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1050.430408},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1066.733439},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1059.096573},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1059.561567},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1044.822944},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1042.513988},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1037.318387},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1053.054237},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1063.516479},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1062.363215},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1050.885699},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1033.906694},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1027.822394},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1026.058633},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1034.329989},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1041.504177},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1032.058128},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1028.357974},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1035.529233},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1054.474415},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1047.677081},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1052.432375},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1062.536399},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1083.940117},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1095.92914},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1083.746304},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1069.326469},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1062.996064},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1078.52193},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1088.150396},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1087.269938},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1072.716054},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1080.349587},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1083.077955},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1086.39719},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1079.534592},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1080.184737},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1095.345759},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1112.491483},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1123.578989},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1128.649059},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1098.740613},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1114.59274},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1126.144176},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1148.732684},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1153.480928},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1153.081268},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1156.2483},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1145.916562},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1140.034535},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1129.660877},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1166.788178},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1183.57213},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1204.206105},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1201.467768},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1189.252227},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1198.2437},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1194.798928},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1227.425058},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1258.812554},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1297.463462},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1331.8818},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1346.524611},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1326.955431},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1312.915684},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1339.950428},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1363.823393},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1415.145967},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1399.176119},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1427.342755},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1404.690776},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1412.526534},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1409.22069},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1414.853469},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1417.946929},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1448.078315},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1478.101321},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1470.891254},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1483.872489},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1461.110459},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1481.394003},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1482.270272},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1507.822738},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1513.060011},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1493.5052},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1491.689106},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1488.717591},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1498.298076},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1499.173985},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1528.690095},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1528.351868},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1565.778289},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1590.124862},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1622.192141},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1616.066914},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1602.274798},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1612.769243},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1634.896494},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1641.982286},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1625.840234},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1634.75341},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1656.235179},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1666.768332},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1648.406994},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1662.879029},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1653.799075},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1671.004791},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1697.596304},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1719.487799},{"period":"2025-11-01"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