The five-digit label 21216 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area; it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In June 2026, Zillow ZORI for this ZIP was $1,687 per month, down 1.25% from the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a bedroom-specific measurement or an ACS survey result. The immediate signal is therefore a current decline in the asking-rent indicator, while the longer history and the direct resale record introduce a different tension.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation—not rental transactions—recorded a median sold price of $184,958, 23.31% above its year-earlier value, with 86 homes sold. Median marketing time was 64 days. Inventory was 202 homes, equal to 7.1 months of supply; average sale-to-list was 102.03%, and 29.79% of sales were above list. These are for-sale indicators, not rental comparables. The price increase and above-list share sit alongside the supply and marketing-time measures, challenging a simple reading of the softer current asking-rent movement and not resolving the separate income screen. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 10.95%, a cross-source screening ratio only, with no property-specific expenses or financing.
The direct Zillow history is backward-looking. Exact same-month annualized rent changes were 3.04% over three years and 5.58% over five years, yet the one-year retreat means recent direction breaks rather than confirms the longer path. The 4.14% annualized variability of monthly returns places less confidence in one current ZORI snapshot as a representative historical signal. Separately, the maximum drawdown reached 4.87%, documenting a past peak-to-trough decline rather than estimating a future one. Coverage is 98.32% across 117 observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,030 for momentum, 2,659 for stability, and 2,650 balanced, where lower ranks are higher. These measurements organize past behavior only, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source differences become material in the affordability screen. The matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,176 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities; that is 43.45% below the current Zillow asking-rent index. ACS median household income is $42,031. At the current index, the annual income required by a 30% screen is $67,480, and the index equals 48.16% of reported median household income. That 30% required-income screen is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Within the survey, 3,531 of 6,126 renter households were in the reported 30%-or-more burden group, or 57.64%. Neither burden nor the income screen establishes affordability for a particular home.
For a standardized bedroom sizing view, the local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $1,237 for a studio, $1,373 for one bedroom, $1,687 for two bedrooms, $2,142 for three bedrooms, and $2,372 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates that scale ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder; they are never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation. The local two-bedroom HUD standard is $1,857, placing the modelled two-bedroom estimate 9.15% below it. Numerical proximity between either series does not make either one a substitute for unit-level asking-rent evidence.
Housing stock data add a separate ZCTA-wide constraint. ACS records 15,580 housing units and 3,273 vacant units, an overall vacancy rate of 21.01%. The stock is recorded across single-family and large-multifamily structure classes, but those categories do not establish bedroom count, condition, utility treatment, or current asking rent for any dwelling. The total vacancy figure also spans more than units currently offered for rent. It should therefore be treated as an area-level occupancy measure, not proof that a specific home is available or that its terms will resemble the ZIP index.
For wider context, the Baltimore city scope’s current asking-rent index is $1,798.89, the Baltimore City county scope’s is $1,801, and the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro scope’s is $1,936. Each broader figure exceeds the ZIP’s current index, but city, county, and metro values are context only rather than ZIP rental comparables. They cannot replace the ZIP-specific ZORI, matched-ZCTA ACS survey, or local HUD ladder. The comparison frames the ZIP as lower on this asking-rent measure than those wider scopes without showing why the difference exists or whether it applies to a particular property type.
The evidence should remain separated by universe: ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is direct ZIP resale evidence. Survey uncertainty, blended rental types, modelled bedroom scaling, and the resale-versus-rental distinction limit property-level conclusions. Concrete checks should verify an individual home’s advertised rent, bedroom count, utility treatment, physical condition, availability, lease terms, and comparable asks in the same property type. Resale records should likewise be checked for the individual property rather than projected onto rental terms. Does a specific home’s current ask, bedroom count, and utility treatment actually align with the mixed ZORI index and modelled ladder?
","findings":[{"body":"June 2026 Zillow ZORI was $1,687, 1.25% below the same month a year earlier, while exact same-month annualized changes over three and five years remained positive. The recent decline therefore breaks from the longer historical path. High variability and a historical drawdown argue for treating one month as a current index reading, not as a durable projection.","title":"Recent asking-rent movement breaks from the longer path"},{"body":"ACS 2024 median gross rent of $1,176 is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s asking-rent index. Scaling current ZORI to a 30% income screen gives $67,480, above the reported median household income. That arithmetic describes a benchmark only; it neither advises an applicant nor determines qualification.","title":"Affordability measures differ because the sources measure different populations"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month observation is for ZIP resale, not leasing. Its 23.31% year-over-year median price gain and 102.03% average sale-to-list ratio contrast with 7.1 months of supply and 64 median days on market. This mixed resale evidence prevents the softer one-year rent reading from being treated as a complete market account. The rent-price figure remains only a cross-source screen.","title":"Resale evidence is mixed rather than a rental confirmation"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled by applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI, so they are not measured bedroom rents. HUD’s bedroom-specific standard is administrative rather than an asking-rent observation. Similarly, ZCTA-wide vacancy, burden, and structure totals cannot establish availability, condition, utility treatment, or rent for a particular unit. Property-level verification remains necessary.","title":"Bedroom and vacancy figures are not unit comparables"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is blended across rental types and reflects observed asking rents, so it may not match a particular unit’s bedroom count, utility treatment, lease terms, condition, or actual advertised availability.","ACS survey measures occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities, so its median rent and burden shares can differ materially from a current asking-rent index.","Overall ZCTA vacancy covers more than units offered for rent, and the statistical ZCTA boundary is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP; neither datum identifies a particular available home.","Redfin’s ZIP series concerns resale listings and completed sales over a rolling three-month window. Its annualized rent-price screening ratio omits property-specific expenses and cannot describe transaction-level rental economics."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI and ACS ask different questions. June 2026 ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS 2024 median gross rent is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Timing, coverage, and rent definitions therefore differ, so the figures should not be substituted.","q":"Why do Zillow ZORI and ACS gross rent differ?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates made by scaling the single ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. They provide a standardized sizing view but are neither observed listings nor signed leases. HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents?"},{"a":"The backward-looking record shows a negative latest same-month year alongside positive three- and five-year annualized changes, so recent direction breaks from the longer rise. Elevated annualized monthly-return variability and the prior maximum drawdown mean one current ZORI point deserves less stand-alone confidence. Coverage and discovery ranks describe historical data quality and placement, not forecasts.","q":"What does history change about confidence in the current rent reading?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price from a rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation. It brings together different source universes and omits property condition, operating expenses, financing, taxes, and transaction-specific features. It is only a cross-source screening ratio and does not measure an individual property’s economics.","q":"What can the Redfin rent-price figure show?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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