Cooling, rather than a broad long-run loss, frames ZIP 21218 at the current endpoint. In June 2026, Zillow's ZIP-level ZORI is $1,391. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, making it a ZIP market indicator rather than the rent quoted for any single listing. This five-digit label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and the match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geographic distinction matters before comparing this current index with household-survey or administrative standards. Because it is typical rather than unit-specific, the index can differ from active advertised rents within the same identifier.
The 1-year history reading is a -1.61% exact same-month change, which defines the stated cooling and breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer path. The corresponding 3-year annualized change was 1.90%, and the 5-year annualized change was 4.09%. The series has 100% coverage; annualized monthly-return variability was 2.91% and maximum drawdown was -4.85%. These backward-looking measurements mean a single current snapshot merits less confidence than a perfectly stable series, because the index has varied and fallen from a prior peak. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,364 for momentum, 1,454 for stability, and 2,317 for balanced performance, where lower rank is higher. They are descriptive history measures, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Source separation explains why neighboring rent figures do not answer the same question. The matched Census ZCTA's ACS 2024 five-year survey puts median gross rent at $1,264 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is a survey result, not an asking-rent index. ACS is limited to occupied renter homes, whereas ZORI reflects observed asking rents; the populations and utility treatment therefore remain intentionally separate. HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is $1,857, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. For wider context only, the City of Baltimore scope has a $1,799 asking-rent index, Baltimore City county scope has $1,801, and the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro scope has $1,936; each is above the ZIP indicator, and none is a ZIP measure. Those city, county, and metro comparisons frame broader areas but cannot replace ZIP-level evidence.
Bedroom detail should be read as a scaling exercise, not a new rent survey. Applying the local HUD ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,020 for a studio, $1,132 for one bedroom, $1,391 for two bedrooms, $1,766 for three bedrooms, and $1,956 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom figure matches the ZIP index because that is the model anchor. These are modelled estimates derived from the local HUD bedroom relationship; they are never measured bedroom rents, and they do not establish the asking rent or utilities for a particular property.
The income and burden evidence conveys a different tension. The ZCTA ACS median household income is $62,488, while the 30% required-income screen applied to the current ZIP index yields $55,640 annually; that arithmetic screen is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The resulting asking-rent-to-income comparison is 26.7% at the median-income benchmark, but it combines a current asking-rent index with a five-year household survey. Separately, 5,051 of 9,703 renter households, or 52.1%, reported rent burden at or above the threshold. That aggregate burden result cannot demonstrate what any individual household pays or whether a specific unit is affordable.
Housing counts provide an additional, but limited, view of the matched ZCTA. It contained 21,738 housing units, including 3,035 vacant units, for a 14.0% vacancy rate; renters made up 51.9% of occupied homes. Of the vacancies, 563 were classified as for rent. These are area-level Census status counts, not a live inventory of available listings. They do not show condition, lease terms, concession use, bedroom count, pricing, or when a unit could be occupied, and vacancy does not prove availability at any particular address.
The evidence has different timing, population, and construction rules: ZORI tracks typical observed asking rent across rental types, ACS describes surveyed occupied renter homes, and HUD supplies an administrative standard. Margins of error, survey aggregation, index blending, and the modelled bedroom method all limit precision at the property level. No packet figure identifies a landlord's current quote, a unit's utility billing, or whether a listed home remains available when checked. Relevant property-level checks are the advertised versus effective rent, lease term, bedroom designation, included and separately billed utilities, availability date, current listing status, concessions, and any documented eligibility terms. The ZIP evidence can organize those checks, but cannot substitute for them. Does the specific property match the definition behind the comparison?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June endpoint, the ZIP asking-rent index sits at $1,391 after a 1-year same-month decline of 1.61%. That pullback contrasts with positive annualized changes over the 3-year and 5-year windows. Full history coverage, observed monthly-return variability, and a measurable drawdown support a cautious reading of one current observation; they do not establish a future path.","title":"Recent cooling interrupts a positive multiyear record"},{"body":"ZORI represents typical observed asking rent across blended rental types. The matched ZCTA's ACS median gross rent instead is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The lower ACS median and higher HUD two-bedroom figure therefore do not contradict ZORI; they arise from distinct populations, timing, and definitions.","title":"ZORI, ACS, and HUD answer different rent questions"},{"body":"Bedroom estimates follow the local HUD ladder scaled to the ZIP ZORI, yielding a consistent studio-through-four-bedroom ordering. The two-bedroom estimate equals the ZIP index because the calculation uses that index as its anchor. These outputs are modelled monthly estimates, not measured bedroom rents, and they cannot reveal a unit's condition, utility treatment, term, or effective rent.","title":"Bedroom series is modelled rather than observed"},{"body":"The median-income screen places current ZIP asking rent below the stated 30% income threshold, while just over half of surveyed renter households report burden at that threshold or higher. This contrast reflects different aggregation and measurement: the first is arithmetic using an index and median income, while the second summarizes households. Neither result qualifies an applicant or establishes affordability for a particular address.","title":"The median screen and burden statistic measure different things"}],"risks":["The current ZIP indicator blends rental types and does not identify a property's bedroom count, physical condition, included utilities, concession structure, lease duration, or advertised-versus-effective rent.","ACS estimates describe a matched statistical ZCTA and occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period; the ZCTA does not identically map to USPS delivery ZIP boundaries.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are area-level classifications and household aggregates. They cannot demonstrate that a given unit is vacant, rentable, affordable, or occupied by a household with similar income.","HUD FMR/SAFMR and modelled bedroom estimates are comparison tools with administrative or mathematical construction, not direct observations of current asking rents for specific bedroom types."],"qa":[{"a":"The $1,391 figure is Zillow ZORI for the ZIP at the stated endpoint. It is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a median lease payment, a survey of occupied homes, a bedroom-specific observation, or a guaranteed quote for any one listed property.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports median gross rent for occupied renter homes in a five-year ZCTA survey and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard. Zillow ZORI tracks typical observed asking rent. Because populations, timing, utility treatment, and construction differ, the values are contextual complements rather than interchangeable rent quotes.","q":"Why do ACS and HUD show different rent values?"},{"a":"They were modelled by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. The calculation makes the two-bedroom estimate equal to the ZIP index and applies local relative ratios to the other bedroom groups. It does not measure asking rents for studios, one-bedroom homes, or larger units, and it cannot identify a particular property.","q":"How were the bedroom estimates generated?"},{"a":"Match the property's advertised and effective rent, bedroom designation, lease term, included and separately billed utilities, availability date, listing status, and concessions to the statistic being used. Also distinguish the Zillow ZIP identifier from the Census ZCTA. These checks establish comparability; ZIP, ACS, and HUD figures cannot supply missing unit-level facts.","q":"What should be checked before comparing a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":893.585005},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":897.483557},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":909.622673},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":915.018205},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":917.444224},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":914.055679},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":927.393408},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":924.668365},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":930.151158},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":926.755654},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":926.64606},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":925.630723},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":941.767066},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":971.571923},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":975.0536},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":965.24112},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":944.219306},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":966.737101},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":963.183436},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":973.876661},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":972.544063},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":976.45529},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":985.07839},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":975.772317},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":983.163012},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":961.589317},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":966.613222},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":959.902269},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":974.916076},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":971.037788},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":985.789709},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":983.401211},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":985.154745},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":977.614125},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":973.94455},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":994.368503},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":996.122865},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1007.806629},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":999.737733},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1013.539978},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1012.430336},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1008.31839},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1008.625504},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1008.083834},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1014.93237},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1013.801059},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1021.535385},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1021.396012},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1021.25684},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1018.742171},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1026.891275},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1026.851674},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1029.773607},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1035.687992},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1033.928944},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1038.847516},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1038.200079},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1047.478103},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1047.064973},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1044.349517},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1047.104991},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1052.464462},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1055.491329},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1050.180597},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1060.60202},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1059.367964},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1067.481493},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1068.37825},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1075.269224},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1081.444011},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1100.479295},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1114.012976},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1108.809911},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1114.654401},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1117.008719},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1135.806874},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1132.096204},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1137.925915},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1147.150477},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1158.272983},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1181.659343},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1189.236178},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1194.954106},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1185.871732},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1197.880852},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1213.805886},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1226.970269},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1228.873778},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1234.309993},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1244.15271},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1259.212719},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1268.070402},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1266.65617},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1276.426292},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1283.620505},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1297.026695},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1302.235763},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1302.61408},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1305.792271},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1304.71999},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1310.373367},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1314.474313},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1308.659815},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1312.734183},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1319.007089},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1323.591674},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1335.567669},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1339.047886},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1348.035043},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1337.676511},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1343.77567},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1363.904092},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1385.875859},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1395.971963},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1397.14301},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1399.95658},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1380.650162},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1379.443662},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1366.033212},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1394.65888},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1392.066197},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1406.483691},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1410.415457},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1420.565408},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1423.11777},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1413.580535},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1423.894476},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1427.840456},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1448.11558},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1452.251249},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1461.589614},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1439.330824},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1438.765034},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1434.152847},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1427.660818},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1409.530006},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1393.490539},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1390.772698}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1413.580535,"endRent":1390.772698,"change":-0.016134798432266284,"cagr":-0.016134798432266284},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1314.474313,"endRent":1390.772698,"change":0.058044789651207074,"cagr":0.0189855316892944},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1137.925915,"endRent":1390.772698,"change":0.2221996877538377,"cagr":0.040946558479597606}},"maxDrawdown":-0.04845198359489711,"annualizedVolatility":0.029117111987339284,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}