At first glance, ZIP 21222 presents a near match between different rent measures: Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,457 per month, up 2.87% from the same month a year earlier, while the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,444 with a ±$47 margin of error. The asking index is therefore 0.9% above that survey median, but the apparent alignment should not be read as interchangeability. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match: a ZCTA is a statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP and not identical to one.
The history supplies a useful caution about the current increase. Exact same-month annualized ZORI growth was 2.87% over 1 year, 3.59% over 3 years, and 4.73% over 5 years through the stated endpoint. The positive recent direction thus continues the longer upward path, but it is slower than both multiyear rates rather than an acceleration. Annualized monthly-return variability was 3.44%, and maximum drawdown was -3.18%, so a single current reading deserves moderate rather than absolute confidence despite complete coverage across 72 observations and 71 consecutive monthly returns. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower is higher, were 892 for momentum, 2,175 for stability, and 1,468 for the balanced measure. These backward-looking measurements describe the observed series only; they are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
Place within wider geographies frames the level, not a specific property. As wider context only, the Dundalk city-context asking-rent value is $1,614, Baltimore County context is $1,728, and the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro context is $1,936; each is broader-area context rather than ZIP evidence. The ZIP index is below every one of these scope-named benchmarks, with the gap widening from the city context to the county and metro. These comparisons use like asking-rent context figures, but neither establishes submarket conditions, explains the difference, nor converts a wider value into rent for a particular home. The current local index should therefore be read alongside, rather than substituted for, each named broader geography.
Bedroom figures provide a size-specific translation, not an observed rent table. Using the local HUD ladder, modelled monthly ZIP estimates are $1,069 for a studio, $1,186 for one bedroom, $1,457 for two bedrooms, $1,850 for three bedrooms, and $2,049 for four bedrooms. The factor is ZIP ZORI divided by the local HUD two-bedroom standard of $1,857, or approximately 78.5%; applying it to each local HUD bedroom standard produces the ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; these are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. Actual advertised units can differ by property type, condition, included utilities, size, timing, and other listing terms that this proportional method does not observe.
An arithmetic income screen and the survey burden result point to a less uniform affordability picture. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, annualizing the current monthly index produces required annual income of $58,280. This is below the ZCTA median household income of $64,141, and the annualized index equals 27.3% of that median; neither calculation is advice nor an applicant qualification rule. In the ACS renter-household sample, 4,468 of 7,900 renter households, or 56.6%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. That survey result cannot establish the burden of a particular unit or household because it concerns occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and reflects a different measure and population than new asking rents.
Housing counts provide capacity context without identifying availability. The ZCTA contains 23,982 housing units, of which 1,470 are vacant, for a 6.13% vacancy rate; 351 vacant units are classified for rent. The structure mix is weighted toward 19,741 single-family units, while 691 units sit in large multifamily structures. More occupied homes are owner occupied than renter occupied. Vacancy is a category count, not proof that a particular home is rentable, competitively priced, or available on a desired date. Similarly, the stock mix does not reveal bedrooms, lease terms, unit condition, or what an individual landlord will ask.
Several limits should govern interpretation. The current ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, not a transaction record or a full inventory; ACS is a survey estimate with its stated margin of error; and HUD is an administrative standard. History is complete in this packet but remains a backward-looking sequence, so its deceleration and variability do not determine future rents. Before interpreting any property through this ZIP report, property-level checks should record the advertised rent, exact bedroom count and usable size, property type, included and separately billed utilities, lease length, fees, availability date, and whether the unit’s location maps to the listing ZIP. Those checks test a listing’s actual terms rather than projecting an index, vacancy count, burden statistic, or modelled bedroom estimate onto an address. Does the specific listing’s stated rent and included-cost structure fit the evidence universe being compared?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow index and the ACS survey median are close in level, but they describe different universes. The former follows observed advertised rents across blended rental types, whereas the latter is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. Historical growth is still positive but slower than the longer same-month path; variability and drawdown limit the precision of any single index snapshot.","title":"Close levels, different rent universes"},{"body":"Bedroom outputs translate the ZIP index through the local HUD ladder using one proportional relationship. They are modelled monthly estimates, not measured rents, and HUD FMR/SAFMR itself is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent survey. A unit’s layout, type, utility treatment, size, timing, and terms can make its listing price diverge from each modelled figure.","title":"Bedroom values are proportional estimates"},{"body":"The income screen is a simple annualized-rent-to-income calculation at the stated threshold, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The burden statistic has a separate function: it reports the share of ACS renter households carrying gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. Neither result identifies affordability, burden, or availability for a particular home or household.","title":"Affordability screens and burden measure different questions"},{"body":"Compared with the named city, county, and metro context measures, the ZIP asking-rent index is lower at every wider scope. Housing counts show a stock led by single-family units and a smaller large-multifamily component, while vacancy remains a category-level measure. These facts can frame comparison, but cannot establish the price, condition, lease terms, or availability of any listing.","title":"Wider comparisons and stock require restraint"}],"risks":["The geographic match is analytical rather than postal: the Census ZCTA is a statistical area and may not reproduce the boundaries or delivery behavior of a USPS ZIP.","ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, so changes in listed inventory composition, property types, or included terms may affect the index without describing a specific dwelling.","The modelled bedroom ladder inherits the local HUD standard and the ZIP-to-HUD scaling relationship; it does not observe bedroom-specific leases, concessions, or utilities at individual properties.","Vacancy and rent-burden figures are area aggregates from defined categories and survey households; they cannot demonstrate whether a particular unit is open, affordable, or suitable."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI represents a typical observed asking-rent index for the ZIP market and blends rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Similar dollar levels can therefore coexist even though the measures have different populations, timing, and utility treatment.","q":"Why can the current asking-rent index and ACS median gross rent be close without meaning the same thing?"},{"a":"No. The figures are generated by scaling the ZIP-level ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative standard rather than a record of current asking rents, and the resulting outputs do not capture a particular property’s size, condition, utilities, or lease terms.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for studios through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"The same-month growth rates, volatility, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks summarize observed Zillow history through the supplied endpoint. They show a positive but slower recent pace relative to longer windows, yet they are backward-looking descriptive measurements. They do not forecast rents, establish future performance, or support an investment conclusion.","q":"How should the historical changes, volatility, drawdown, and ranks be used?"},{"a":"Verify the stated asking rent, bedroom count, usable size, property type, included and separately billed utilities, lease length, fees, availability date, and ZIP mapping. Those details allow comparison with the appropriate source universe and avoid assigning an area-level index, vacancy category, burden statistic, or modelled estimate to a specific address.","q":"What should be verified for a particular property before comparing it with this report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1060.398757},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1067.915944},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1088.748343},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1092.136353},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1102.954984},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1110.965423},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1128.752428},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1125.137331},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1118.718625},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1123.159302},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1137.547231},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1156.387135},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1172.039137},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1206.997827},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1219.340744},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1241.891825},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1231.856074},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1223.514848},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1212.854865},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1233.992115},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1256.250319},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1279.958154},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1299.809189},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1315.164048},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1314.025278},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1287.14211},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1273.330041},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1279.545348},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1301.133747},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1330.433347},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1336.33755},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1333.480037},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1327.949071},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1319.52596},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1313.681173},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1310.894579},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1314.947463},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1323.087382},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1332.982216},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1338.059831},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1336.719794},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1323.514747},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1327.703207},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1341.182976},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1358.474796},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1371.200424},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1373.380325},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1371.401445},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1377.540098},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1383.292898},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1391.451393},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1377.639983},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1369.671665},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1387.431695},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1417.677101},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1430.555937},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1428.257458},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1415.454385},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1401.646859},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1416.659501},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1419.446173},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1424.89748},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1425.656759},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1440.924014},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1452.539033},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1448.070393},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1430.324616},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1422.678953},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1425.31618},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1438.913981},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1458.378394},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1457.31746}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":72,"firstPeriod":"2020-07-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":72,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1416.659501,"endRent":1457.31746,"change":0.02869988093207998,"cagr":0.02869988093207998},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1310.894579,"endRent":1457.31746,"change":0.11169691548476535,"cagr":0.03592615971087976},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1156.387135,"endRent":1457.31746,"change":0.26023320036330233,"cagr":0.047346011938318444}},"maxDrawdown":-0.0318089648691493,"annualizedVolatility":0.03436136437663055,"consecutiveReturnCount":71}}