The ZIP’s current Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) is $2,118 per month, 4.3% above a year earlier. The rent reading faces a cross-market tension: Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median sold price was $324,927 in its reported rolling three-month window, down 3.7% year over year. Asking-rent momentum and resale-price softness describe different markets, not a shared transaction set. Their divergence is therefore a screening issue rather than evidence that either rental demand or individual property economics moved in lockstep.
The longer Zillow ZIP history frames the increase as continued stable growth rather than an isolated jump. Exact same-month annualized changes were 4.3% over 1 year, 3.8% over 3 years, and 4.7% over 5 years. Thus, the latest advance broadly confirms the multiyear path, though it is below the five-year pace. The series has 100% stated coverage. Its annualized monthly-return variability of 2.1% suggests a relatively restrained history, which lends more confidence to a single current snapshot than a highly erratic series would; it still is not a forecast. The maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 1.9%, showing that declines occurred but were limited in the covered record. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 595 for momentum, 238 for stability, and 100 for balanced; lower ranks are higher, and all are backward-looking measurements rather than investment recommendations.
Here, 21224 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, and it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, whereas the ACS five-year ZCTA median gross rent was $1,778 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The current ZORI is 19.1% above that ACS median, a source-and-population difference rather than a comparison of like-for-like asking rents. HUD’s $1,857 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Scaling the current ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces modelled—not measured—monthly ZIP estimates of $1,553 for a studio, $1,723 for one bedroom, $2,118 for two bedrooms, $2,689 for three bedrooms, and $2,978 for four bedrooms.
Affordability signals split by household reference. At the current ZORI, the 30% required-income arithmetic is $84,720 annually; against the ACS ZCTA median household income of $89,017, that equals a 28.6% asking-rent-to-income screen. This arithmetic is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or a conclusion about any household. In the ACS renter universe, 3,914 of 8,689 renter households, or 45.0%, reported gross-rent burdens at or above that threshold. That five-year survey measure includes selected utilities and reflects occupied renter homes, so it cannot establish the burden on a current available unit. Taken together, the near-median income screen and the much higher burden share make household mix, actual lease terms, and utility treatment material to interpretation.
The ACS ZCTA housing-stock picture gives a stock denominator, not a count of currently comparable units. Of 23,547 housing units, 11.0% were vacant. Renter-occupied homes represented 41.5% of occupied stock. The structure tally records 19,474 single-family units alongside large multifamily structures. A vacant-for-rent classification sits within a broad survey inventory that also includes other vacancy statuses. It neither establishes that a particular unit is vacant and rentable nor shows its condition, lease terms, bedroom count, utility treatment, or relationship to the index.
Broader geographies sit below the ZIP on rent but remain context only. In the Baltimore city scope, the rent context is $1,798.89; in the Baltimore City county scope, it is $1,801; and in the Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD metro scope, it is $1,936. The ZIP index is above each of those wider figures, but the city, county, and metro measures cannot be recast as ZIP comparables. City and county renter-share and vacancy figures are likewise wider context, while metro apartment vacancy and for-sale supply are metro measures. They do not replace the ZIP asking-rent index, the ACS ZCTA renter survey, the local HUD administrative standard, or Redfin’s direct ZIP resale observation.
On the for-sale side alone, Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation records 287 homes sold, a 36-day median marketing time, 266 inventory homes, and 2.8 months of supply. The median sold price was lower than a year earlier, as reported above. Its average sale-to-list ratio was 99.3%, and 31.2% of sales closed above list. These are resale liquidity and pricing signals, not rental transactions: the price decline challenges a simple rent-growth reading, while the limited supply and near-list sales show that the resale record is not one-dimensional. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 7.8%, only a cross-source screening ratio and not a measure of property-level economics.
Timing and definitions set the boundary for interpretation: ZORI is dated June 2026, the ACS evidence is a 2024 five-year ZCTA survey, HUD is FY2026, and Redfin is a rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June 2026. Survey estimates have sampling uncertainty, and the current index, HUD standard, and resale window do not observe the same homes or transaction types. Concrete property-level checks include actual asking rent, bedroom count, unit type, lease timing, included utilities, and availability status; without them, the index or modelled ladder is only a broad comparison. The corresponding sale record, list price, and marketing dates remain separate checks rather than ZIP resale aggregates attached to a rental unit. Do the unit’s documented terms align closely enough with the source definitions for these screens to be informative?
","findings":[{"body":"ZORI at $2,118 rose 4.3% over the latest same-month year, while Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median sold price was $324,927, down 3.7% year over year. The rent series’ small 1.9% maximum drawdown supports a stable-growth reading, but resale-price movement belongs only to the for-sale universe. The two measures create a tension rather than a unified market conclusion.","title":"Rent growth and resale pricing point in different directions"},{"body":"HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom standard of $1,857 is administrative and bedroom-specific. Applying its local ladder to ZIP ZORI yields modelled estimates ranging from $1,553 for a studio to $2,978 for four bedrooms. Those figures are not measurements of advertised or leased rents. They are useful only when a unit’s bedroom count, rental type, and included-utility treatment are established separately.","title":"The bedroom schedule is a scaling device"},{"body":"At a 30% screen, current ZORI translates to $84,720 required annual income, slightly below the ACS ZCTA median household income of $89,017. Yet 45.0% of surveyed renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above the same threshold. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and covers occupied renter homes, so neither the income screen nor the burden statistic establishes affordability for a specific available unit.","title":"Median-income arithmetic does not resolve burden"},{"body":"Over Redfin’s rolling three-month ZIP resale period, 287 homes sold with 2.8 months of supply and a 99.3% average sale-to-list ratio. The 7.8% annualized-rent-to-median-price calculation is simply a cross-source screening ratio. It cannot transfer for-sale liquidity, sale prices, or sale-to-list behavior into rental transactions or property-level economics.","title":"Resale signals remain liquidity context"}],"risks":["The current Zillow index, ACS survey median, HUD standard, and Redfin resale measures observe different populations, utility treatments, bedroom definitions, and transaction types; direct comparison can overstate precision.","The ZCTA is a statistical boundary rather than the USPS delivery ZIP, and its five-year ACS vacancy and burden estimates with sampling error may not mirror the exact ZIP market or a current listing.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit the local HUD ladder and the blended ZORI input, so they can diverge from a unit with unusual size, lease terms, utilities, or rental type.","The direct ZIP Redfin data cover for-sale activity over a rolling three-month window; resale price changes, inventory, and marketing time neither measure rental transactions nor prove a unit’s availability."],"qa":[{"a":"The five-digit label serves two matching functions: it is Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA used for ACS estimates. A ZCTA is a statistical area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. The match supports a consistent reporting frame but does not make the boundaries or source populations identical.","q":"What geography does 21224 represent in this report?"},{"a":"ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The bedroom figures use HUD ratios to scale ZORI, so they are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.","q":"Why does the current ZORI not equal the ACS median gross rent or HUD standard?"},{"a":"The required income is calculated by annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing by 30%. It is only an arithmetic screen, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. ACS burden describes surveyed renter households paying at least that gross-rent share; it does not determine a particular household’s cost, eligibility, or lease terms.","q":"How should the 30% required-income calculation be read?"},{"a":"Redfin is a direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation of homes that sold or were listed for resale. Its median price, sales count, days on market, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list measures describe for-sale liquidity. They are not rental comparables or rental transaction evidence. The annualized ZORI-to-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio, not property-level economics.","q":"What does the Redfin resale block establish?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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