At $2,409 in June 2026, the ZIP's Zillow ZORI gives the current typical observed asking-rent reading. It is a ZIP-level index blended across rental types, not a contract-rent series or a set of measured bedroom quotes. Annualizing that index and dividing it by the ZIP median sold price produces a 4.35% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a complete property-economics measure: it uses no unit-specific costs and does not arise from rental transactions. The central tension is therefore a current asking-rent reading alongside resale stock that has changed materially, not evidence that the rental and for-sale series describe one market.
The longer direct Zillow ZIP history supports a stable-growth description, but its pace has changed. Exact same-month annualized changes were 2.52% over 1 year, 1.80% over 3 years, and 4.15% over 5 years. Recent positive movement thus confirms the broad upward path while breaking from the faster five-year pace; it also accelerated relative to the softer three-year pace. The history has 100% coverage. The 2.62% annualized monthly-return variability sets a scale for the confidence appropriate to one current snapshot. Separately, maximum drawdown reached -3.06%, a historical retreat rather than a guarantee. Among history-eligible ZIPs, the transparent national discovery stability rank was 919, the balanced rank was 1,041, and the momentum rank was 1,417, where lower ranks are higher. These backward-looking measurements are neither forecasts nor investment recommendations.
Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a separate for-sale record, not rental evidence. It reports a $664,850 median sold price, up 2.28% year over year, across 184 homes sold; median marketing time was 34 days. Inventory stood at 161 homes after a 32.19% annual increase, while months of supply measured 2.7. That measure sets available resale inventory against the recent sales pace, indicating relatively limited resale supply at that pace rather than rental availability. The average sale-to-list ratio was 100.72%, and 38.58% of sales closed above list. Those sale outcomes and the supply reading coexist with inventory growth. This challenges a smooth extension of the rent-history path into property economics, even though the resale price and ZORI each increased over the year.
The 21401 label serves both as Zillow's ZIP market identifier and as a match to a Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, a boundary distinction that matters before applying area statistics to an address. The matched ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $2,150; it covers occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. That rent concept differs from ZORI rather than providing an interchangeable asking-rent measure. HUD's local two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $1,857, an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder yields modelled monthly estimates of $1,767 for a studio, $1,960 for one bedroom, $2,409 for two, $3,059 for three, and $3,387 for four. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Income and burden create another constraint on a headline rent. At the stated index, a 30% required-income screen equals $96,360 annually. This is arithmetic only—not advice and not an applicant-qualification rule. The ACS ZCTA median household income is $123,381, so the screen sits below that all-household benchmark, but median household income is not a renter-income distribution. In the same ACS survey, 43.7% of renter households were estimated to have rent burden at that threshold. The coexistence of that burden measure with the mechanical screen cautions against treating a ZIP-wide median income as proof of affordability for any household or unit. Because ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and is a five-year occupied-home survey, it cannot be substituted for a current listing's bill.
The ACS ZCTA housing picture is broader than either index. Of 19,567 housing units, 1,583 were vacant, an 8.1% vacancy rate; 299 of the vacant units were classified as for rent. Vacancy therefore is an area-level status count, not proof that a particular rental is available, competitively priced, or suited to a specified household. The stock count included 13,164 single-family units and 3,408 large multifamily units. Those categories help describe composition, but they do not identify bedroom mix, condition, utility terms, or the supply of current listings. The occupancy, stock, and vacancy measures remain survey estimates for the matched ZCTA rather than a census of individual properties.
For wider context only, the Annapolis city scope rent was $2,398, the Anne Arundel County scope rent was $2,370, and the Baltimore–Columbia–Towson, MD metro scope rent was $1,936. The direct ZIP ZORI is closest to the city and county context readings and materially separated from the metro context reading. These are wider-geography context values, not substitutes for the ZIP asking-rent index, the matched ZCTA survey, or the local HUD standard. The separation should be read only as scope-specific context because city, county, and metro reporting areas differ from both the direct ZIP and the statistical ZCTA. It does not validate a particular asking rent, describe a property's location within a delivery ZIP, or establish a tenant's budget.
Each evidence stream has a different date and construction: ZORI is observed asking-rent indexing, ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is direct ZIP resale activity. A property-level use would require confirming the advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, concessions, and live availability rather than relying on the modelled ladder or area vacancy. It would also require matching the address to the applicable boundary and checking a sale's listing status, closing date, property type, condition, and list-price record before pairing it with the resale figures. No unit-specific lease transactions, property expenses, financing terms, or operating records appear here. Can the relevant unit details be documented well enough to keep these aggregate screens in their proper roles?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June 2026 ZIP ZORI was $2,409, and the exact same-month one-year change was 2.52%. Three- and five-year annualized rates show recent growth stayed positive but below the full five-year pace. Full coverage, the recorded variability, and the maximum drawdown provide context for the current index. They describe the past series and do not predict future rent.","title":"Positive rent history, slower than the full-period pace"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent, ZORI, and HUD FMR/SAFMR should not be substituted for one another. ACS summarizes occupied renter homes over five years and includes selected utilities; ZORI is a current blended asking-rent index; HUD is an administrative bedroom standard. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are ZORI-scaled modelled estimates based on the local HUD ladder, not transactions or measured bedroom-specific asking rents.","title":"Three rent constructs answer different questions"},{"body":"At a 30% share, current ZORI converts mechanically to a $96,360 annual income screen, below the ZCTA median household income of $123,381. Yet 43.7% of surveyed renter households reported rent burden at or above the same threshold. The data do not resolve this as a contradiction: household median income is not renter income, and area-level burden does not qualify or disqualify any applicant.","title":"Mechanical income screen and renter burden diverge"},{"body":"Redfin's direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale record combines a higher median sold price with a higher inventory count. Its 2.7 months of supply expresses resale inventory relative to the recent sales pace, while days on market and sale-to-list outcomes describe for-sale liquidity. It does not report rental transactions. The annualized ZORI-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screen and omits property-specific economics.","title":"Resale liquidity persists alongside inventory growth"}],"risks":["ZORI blends rental types and records asking rents, so a particular listed unit may differ because of bedroom count, lease terms, utility treatment, condition, incentives, or listing status.","The Census ZCTA match is statistical rather than a USPS delivery boundary. An address may require separate boundary confirmation before area-level ACS estimates are used for a specific property.","The ACS five-year survey combines periods and carries sampling uncertainty, so its gross rent, income, renter burden, stock, and vacancy estimates should not be treated as point-precise current conditions.","Redfin's rolling-three-month figures concern closed and listed ZIP resale activity. Even a low months-of-supply reading and above-list sales cannot establish rental demand, availability, or expenses for a specific property."],"qa":[{"a":"The report uses 21401 as Zillow's ZIP market identifier and as the match for the Census ZCTA. Those labels are related but not identical: a ZCTA is a statistical tabulation area, not a USPS delivery ZIP. Direct ZIP rent and resale series can be read together as area-level observations, but an individual address still needs boundary confirmation before applying ACS results.","q":"Does the 21401 ZCTA exactly match every USPS delivery ZIP address?"},{"a":"ZORI and ACS describe distinct populations and rent concepts. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS is a matched ZCTA five-year survey of occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and reports a median. The difference cannot determine a current listing's rent, a lease concession, or the direction of either series on its own.","q":"Why does the ACS median gross rent not substitute for ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom amounts are calculated by scaling ZIP ZORI through proportions in the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom standard, not an asking-rent survey. The result therefore models a relative bedroom ladder around the ZIP index; it does not measure a bedroom-specific listing, signed lease, or individual unit.","q":"Are the modelled bedroom figures observed ZIP rents?"},{"a":"Redfin's rolling-three-month figures are direct ZIP for-sale observations. The months-of-supply value compares resale inventory with the recent sale pace, and the sale-to-list values describe how closed sales related to list prices. Neither is rental evidence. Annualized ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio and lacks unit-specific costs, rental transaction data, and operating facts.","q":"How should the resale screen and months of supply be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1576.577321},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1584.049922},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1610.239613},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1607.355289},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1591.593216},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1588.135148},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1590.548416},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1606.759344},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1618.926388},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1627.003257},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1622.610686},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1616.437263},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1618.898355},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1624.960678},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1617.643945},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1612.514739},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1622.182975},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1646.513763},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1647.936398},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1638.792271},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1636.740022},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1647.4524},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1653.77896},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1673.770531},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1661.321418},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1683.383031},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1687.258665},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1716.105117},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1711.961437},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1696.866023},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1688.896712},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1703.032647},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1689.990815},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1696.654593},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1694.882822},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1721.796532},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1727.124724},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1714.338071},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1719.509937},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1710.227449},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1721.219166},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1731.856794},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1747.863953},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1749.225596},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1768.975941},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1768.121778},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1778.59948},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1760.512744},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1773.670721},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1783.602599},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1790.395829},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1788.964449},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1771.812918},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1752.28035},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1735.574316},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1748.438111},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1771.11155},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1796.156141},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1818.717379},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1842.785452},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1869.777842},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1876.640998},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1877.861353},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1890.311916},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1919.413804},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1965.727632},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2018.427248},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2063.368889},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2069.017161},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2072.268202},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2065.144741},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2080.518959},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2075.312458},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2081.380848},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2083.957325},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2092.456263},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2116.531735},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2134.049635},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2152.656599},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2140.156673},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2148.67688},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2152.305647},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2159.690897},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2159.600272},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2178.208355},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2204.935433},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2255.631867},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2280.579961},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2291.170785},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2283.553632},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2269.642332},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2262.699564},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2256.932499},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2258.73673},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2279.494977},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2301.877136},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2328.951594},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2323.312041},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2306.504147},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2293.203803},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2292.433579},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2298.379865},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2310.025187},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2325.412398},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2322.197723},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2333.222934},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2318.577236},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2320.362753},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2327.087943},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2351.612696},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2361.976366},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2368.112329},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2358.352055},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2349.992854},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2354.83285},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2359.678884},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2374.51751},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2375.699871},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2386.567032},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2385.239266},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2374.764792},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2364.489753},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2366.007619},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2374.590403},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2391.963173},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2409.120017}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":126,"firstPeriod":"2016-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":126,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2349.992854,"endRent":2409.120017,"change":0.025160571403167298,"cagr":0.025160571403167298},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2283.553632,"endRent":2409.120017,"change":0.0549872721360285,"cagr":0.01800303640813472},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1965.727632,"endRent":2409.120017,"change":0.22556145509786485,"cagr":0.04151857242125412}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03061977251735437,"annualizedVolatility":0.026193022214335216,"consecutiveReturnCount":125}}