ZIP 22030 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a matching Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not an area identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Zillow’s current ZIP asking-rent index is $2,466, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for any one available unit. The immediate signal is cooling rather than a sharp repricing. For wider context only, the City of Fairfax context asking-rent index is $2,458, the Fairfax County context index is $2,542, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context index is $2,448. Those broader figures help position the ZIP snapshot but are not ZIP-level substitutes.
The longer Zillow history makes the recent direction more nuanced. The exact same-month one-year measurement declined 1.00%, breaking from annualized gains of 2.44% over three years and 4.11% over five years. Thus, the latest movement does not confirm the longer upward path; it interrupts it. Annualized monthly-return variability of 1.91% indicates that historical month-to-month rent-index movement was comparatively restrained, which supports more confidence in the current snapshot than a highly erratic series would. Still, the historical maximum drawdown of 3.77% shows that declines have occurred. Coverage is 100%, and the transparent national discovery ranks place momentum at 2,141 and stability at 84 among history-eligible ZIPs, where a lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The bedroom view is a model, not a set of measured bedroom rents. It scales the ZIP Zillow index using the local HUD ladder, producing modelled monthly estimates of $2,148 for a studio, $2,214 for one bedroom, $2,466 for two bedrooms, $3,111 for three bedrooms, and $3,662 for four bedrooms. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,640, placing the ZIP index 6.6% below that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not asking rent, and the modelled ladder cannot establish what any particular floor plan is listed for. The estimates are most useful as a consistent size-adjusted screen alongside unit-specific listing evidence.
Affordability evidence points in two directions because its sources answer different questions. The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent is $2,279; it surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, unlike Zillow’s observed asking-rent index. A 30% required-income screen applied arithmetically to the ZIP index produces $98,640, while ZCTA median household income is $139,831 and the asking-rent-to-income screen is 21.2%. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and household income is not renter income alone. Meanwhile, 48.8% of surveyed renter households report spending at least 30% of income on rent. That burden measure cannot prove the circumstances of a particular household or unit, but it cautions against treating the aggregate income screen as uniform affordability.
Housing stock provides another limit on broad rent interpretation. The matched ZCTA has 21,687 housing units, with renters occupying 42.1% of occupied homes. Its structure mix includes 12,779 single-family units and 3,364 units in large multifamily structures, so the Zillow index blends potentially different rental forms. The overall vacancy rate is 2.5%, and 120 units are classified as vacant for rent. That is a stock-and-survey context measure rather than live availability, lease-up timing, or a count of comparable homes. In particular, vacancy cannot establish that a specified apartment, house, bedroom configuration, or price point is available.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation describes the for-sale market only, not rental transactions. Median sold price is $799,819, down 3.64% year over year, with 185 homes sold and a median 24 days on market. The observation reports 289 active listings and an inventory reading of 89; neither should be substituted for rental vacancy. Supply is 1.5 months. Sale-to-list signals were firm in this resale sample: the average sale-to-list ratio was 101.17%, 49.49% of sales closed above list price, and 68.56% went off market within two weeks. These are direct ZIP resale liquidity and pricing observations, not rental comps, property economics, or evidence about a broader geography.
Annualized ZIP Zillow rent divided by Redfin median sold price equals a 3.70% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, property yield, or a statement of property-level economics. The recent rent-index decline and the resale-price decline both confirm cooling in their separate series. Yet the shallow resale months of supply and above-list sale signals challenge any simple conclusion that every part of the local housing market is becoming loose. The tension matters because the rent series is a blended asking-rent index, while the sale series summarizes completed resale transactions with different property mixes, timing, and market mechanics.
Interpretation remains bounded by source scope, survey design, and timing. Zillow measures asking rents, ACS measures occupied renter homes over five years, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin captures resale activity; none independently describes a specific dwelling’s cash flows, concession package, utilities, condition, or lease terms. Concrete property-level checks include confirming the address maps to the intended ZIP and ZCTA, comparing the actual bedroom and bathroom count with the modelled ladder, identifying included utilities and concessions, checking listing status and lease duration, and reviewing recent comparable asking listings. For a resale comparison, verify property type, condition, list-price history, and whether transaction evidence is truly comparable before attaching ZIP-level signals to an individual property.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP asking-rent index has softened over the latest same-month year after positive annualized movement over the three- and five-year windows. Low historical variability and a comparatively strong stability discovery rank make the current reading more informative than a highly volatile series would be, but the history remains descriptive and backward-looking rather than predictive.","title":"Cooling interrupts a longer rent rise"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom values are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index. They are not observed rents for available units. The HUD benchmark is administrative and bedroom specific, while Zillow is a blended asking-rent measure, so their difference should not be treated as a direct unit-level pricing discrepancy.","title":"Bedroom figures are structured estimates"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale observation records a lower median sold price year over year, which aligns with recent rent-index cooling. However, low months of supply, an above-list average sale-to-list ratio, and a substantial above-list sales share indicate that the for-sale evidence is not uniformly slack. These facts describe resale transactions only.","title":"Resale signals show mixed cooling and tightness"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current Zillow rent sits below matched-ZCTA median household income, yet nearly half of surveyed renter households report rent burdens of at least 30% of income. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities and reflects occupied renter homes, so it cannot be equated with current asking rents or any individual household’s payment capacity.","title":"Aggregate income does not remove burden risk"}],"risks":["Zillow’s index blends rental types and is not a unit-level quote, so bedroom count, condition, concessions, utilities, furnishing, and lease duration can materially separate a listing from the ZIP snapshot.","The matched ZCTA is a Census statistical area rather than an identical USPS delivery ZIP, creating a geographic-boundary risk when attempting to apply survey measures to a specific address.","ACS estimates are five-year survey measures of occupied homes and carry sampling uncertainty, while Zillow and Redfin reflect different market activities and periods, limiting direct one-to-one comparisons.","Redfin sale measures summarize completed resale transactions, not rental transactions or property cash flows; sale-to-list and supply indicators cannot establish rent, vacancy, operating costs, or economics for a particular home."],"qa":[{"a":"The two values come from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey result for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, occupancy, utility treatment, and rental mix can all create a gap without implying an error.","q":"Why is the Zillow asking-rent index higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling the ZIP Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide an internally consistent size screen, but they are not measured asking rents, executed lease rents, or proof that a comparable unit is available at the stated amount.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates actual observed rents for studios through four bedrooms?"},{"a":"It adds direct ZIP for-sale market context through a rolling-three-month resale observation: sold prices, transaction count, marketing time, inventory-related measures, months of supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It cannot serve as rental comparable evidence. Its usefulness is limited to identifying whether resale signals align with or challenge the separate rent-history screen.","q":"What does the Redfin information contribute to a rental review?"},{"a":"Confirm the address and geographic match, then examine the actual unit’s bedroom count, bathrooms, condition, utility responsibility, concessions, listing status, lease duration, and recent comparable asking listings. If evaluating resale context, also check property type, condition, list-price history, and whether the observed sales are genuinely comparable rather than relying on ZIP aggregates alone.","q":"Which property-level checks remain necessary before using this ZIP report?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and 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