Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP asking-rent index for 22031 is $2,460 per month, after a 0.4% year-over-year decline. This is Zillow ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a rent quote for a particular available home. The immediate tension is modest cooling in the current asking-rent reading against a longer history that remains positive and a resale market with several competitive sale signals. That combination does not resolve into a forecast; it instead makes the current rent figure most useful as a market-level reference that requires property-specific confirmation.
The rent history breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer path. The one-year exact same-month annualized change was -0.4%, while the three-year measure was 2.6% and the five-year measure was 4.2%. History coverage is complete at 100% across 126 observations and 125 consecutive monthly returns. Monthly-return variability is 2.1% annualized, a relatively contained reading that lends more confidence to a current ZORI snapshot than a highly erratic series would. Still, the series experienced a 6.7% maximum drawdown from an earlier peak, so the latest level should not be treated as a permanent floor. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,978 for momentum, 209 for stability, and 1,103 for the balanced measure; lower ranks are stronger. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, although 22031 is both the Zillow ZIP market identifier and the Census ZCTA match used here. The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $2,258. That ACS measure surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it is not interchangeable with Zillow’s asking-rent index. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,720; HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. The local HUD ladder scales ZORI into modelled monthly ZIP estimates of $2,143 for a studio, $2,207 for one bedroom, $2,460 for two bedrooms, $3,102 for three bedrooms, and $3,654 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents.
Income and burden measures add a separate affordability lens. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $134,577, while the arithmetic income associated with paying the $2,460 ZIP asking-rent index at 30% of gross income is $98,400. That screen is arithmetic only: it is neither advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and it does not account for taxes, debt, household composition, utilities beyond the index scope, or a specific lease. ACS reports 3,195 renter households spending at least 30% of income on rent, equal to 41.8% of renter households in the five-year survey. The burden share describes surveyed households, not the affordability or likely outcome of any particular unit.
The ZCTA contains 15,431 housing units, with 7,645 renter-occupied homes, making renters 51.6% of occupied households. Of all units, 606 are vacant, producing a 3.9% vacancy rate; 294 units are reported vacant for rent. Housing stock is split across 7,463 single-family units and 4,806 units in large multifamily structures. These counts give useful composition and availability context, but they do not identify current concessions, unit condition, lease turnover, or which vacant homes are actually marketed at the ZORI level. Vacancy also cannot prove availability, pricing power, or affordability for a particular apartment or house.
For wider context only, the Fairfax, VA city rent index is $2,458, Fairfax County context is $2,542, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context is $2,448. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index therefore sits very near the city context, below the county context, and above the metro context. These city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography comparisons, not substitutes for direct 22031 rent observations, and they should not be mixed with the matched-ZCTA ACS household measures or HUD’s administrative standards.
Redfin provides a different, direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Its median sold price is $737,833, down 3.2% year over year, with 112 homes sold and a median 22 days on market. The inventory reading is 55 homes and months of supply is 1.5. Sale-to-list evidence is firmer than the price change alone: average sale-to-list is 100.96%, 50.5% of sales closed above list, and 64.9% went off market within two weeks. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price produces a 4.0% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The sold-price decline confirms the recent rent-cooling direction, while the short supply and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple reading of broadly weak market conditions.
The evidence has clear limits. Zillow describes a blended asking-rent index, ACS summarizes occupied renter households over five years, HUD provides an administrative standard, and Redfin records for-sale resale activity. None supplies a verified lease quote, operating expenses, property tax, financing terms, renovation needs, concessions, or a unit-level sale valuation. Useful property-level checks therefore include the actual bedroom count, lease term, included utilities, availability date, condition, advertised concessions, comparable active asking rents, and whether a sale record matches the property type and closing date being evaluated. The strongest conclusion is not a prediction: current rent cooling is real in the latest history measure, but the separate evidence universes should remain distinct when interpreting it.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest ZIP asking-rent index declined modestly over one year, while the three-year and five-year same-month measures remained positive. Complete historical coverage and low monthly variability make the time series reasonably informative, but the prior drawdown shows that even a stable rent series can retreat materially from earlier highs. This is descriptive history, not a projection.","title":"Recent rent cooling interrupts a still-positive longer history"},{"body":"Studio through four-bedroom figures are produced by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They offer a consistent way to compare bedroom sizes within the ZIP, but they are modelled estimates rather than measured asking rents, leases, or transaction rents. HUD standards themselves are administrative benchmarks and should not be mistaken for market listings.","title":"The bedroom ladder is a model, not a set of observed rents"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen for the current asking-rent index sits below the ZCTA median household income, while a substantial share of surveyed renter households report spending at least thirty percent of income on rent. Those measures describe different populations and calculations. They do not establish whether a given household can qualify for, or comfortably afford, a specific listing.","title":"Household affordability evidence is mixed and aggregate"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct ZIP resale data show a lower median sold price from a year earlier, consistent with the recent rent decline. Yet limited months of supply, a sale-to-list average above one hundred percent, above-list sales, and quick off-market activity indicate active resale-market liquidity. Those sale metrics are not rental evidence and should not be converted into property economics.","title":"Resale signals complicate the cooling rent narrative"}],"risks":["Zillow’s asking-rent index blends rental types, while the ACS figure surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; their difference cannot establish what any currently available unit will lease for.","The matched ZCTA is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP boundary, so demographic, vacancy, and burden measures may not align perfectly with the practical service area of a listing.","Historical stability does not eliminate downside risk: the series includes a meaningful earlier drawdown, and the recent one-year decline means a current rent snapshot should not be treated as a directional guarantee.","Redfin resale evidence records sold homes rather than rental transactions, and the rent-to-price screening ratio omits expenses, financing, taxes, vacancy, repairs, and unit-specific valuation differences."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not a market asking-rent observation.","q":"Why do Zillow, ACS, and HUD report different rent figures?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP asking rent by thirty percent of gross income to show the income mathematically associated with that threshold. It is not advice, a household budget, a credit decision, or an applicant qualification rule. Actual affordability can differ because lease terms, utilities, debt, taxes, household size, and expenses differ.","q":"What does the required-income screen mean?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow asking-rent index with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for standardized comparison, but they are not observed leases, advertised rents, transaction rents, or proof of pricing for a particular home.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for each unit size?"},{"a":"The ratio simply divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s median sold price in the direct ZIP resale observation. It is a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or valuation conclusion. It excludes operating costs, financing, taxes, repair needs, and property-level rent variation.","q":"How should the Redfin screening ratio be interpreted?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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