The five-digit label, 22191, is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The distinctive decision question is whether the current broad rent signal is a useful starting point for assessing a listing, while household affordability and actual availability must be tested separately. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZORI for this ZIP is $2,181 per month, down 1.46% from a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It describes the ZIP market’s current asking-rent signal, not the quoted price, bedroom count, utilities, lease terms, condition, or availability of an individual home. The year-over-year movement is an index change, not a forecast or an explanation for any listing.
Resident income and burden provide a different decision lens before an asking rent is treated as affordable. In ACS 2024 five-year data for the matched ZCTA, median household income was $109,316. Applying the 30% required-income screen to the monthly ZIP index produces $87,240 annually. This screen is arithmetic—annualized monthly rent divided by the stated share—not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence that a household can secure a lease. The ZCTA had 10,846 renter-occupied homes, accounting for 42.9% of occupied homes. Of renter households observed for the burden measure, 5,302, or 48.9%, paid at least that share of income toward gross rent. The burden statistic describes surveyed households; it cannot establish a particular household’s finances or a particular unit’s cost.
Direct comparison is informative only when the definitions stay separate. The ACS survey reports a $2,125 median gross rent, with a $37 margin of error; it covers occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities. This is not a contemporaneous asking-rent series or a count of vacant listings. By contrast, FY2026 HUD Fair Market Rent is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The HUD two-bedroom standard is $2,280. It may serve as a program benchmark and as the relative basis for a bedroom ladder, but it does not state what owners are asking or what a tenant pays. ZORI, ACS, and HUD therefore address current broad asking signals, surveyed occupied-home costs, and administrative standards, respectively.
Because ZORI itself is not bedroom-specific, the local HUD ladder supplies a proportional framework rather than a further set of observations. The modelled ZIP estimates are $1,894 for a studio, $1,961 for a one-bedroom, $2,181 for a two-bedroom, $2,755 for a three-bedroom, and $3,233 for a four-bedroom. Each figure scales the ZIP-wide ZORI using the relative local HUD ladder. The orderly rise with bedroom count reflects the model’s allocation of a blended index across configurations. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents: they do not observe advertised medians, completed leases, square footage, utility packages, or variations in property condition. A listing can depart from the estimate without contradicting the ZIP index.
Housing counts show the framework in which availability needs verification rather than an assumption of supply. The matched ZCTA contains 26,446 housing units: 25,284 are occupied and 1,162 are vacant, yielding a 4.4% vacancy rate. The reported vacant categories include 491 for rent, 122 for sale, and 17 seasonal. They do not identify active advertisements, a selected move date, lease readiness, or suitability for an individual household. Structure categories further include 16,103 single-family units and 4,265 units in large multifamily structures. This composition indicates the kinds of stock counted in the survey, while the vacancy categories only classify units at the survey level. Neither measure proves that a particular property is vacant, rentable, maintained, or accessible on the terms a renter needs.
Context becomes useful once its broader scope is kept visible. In the Woodbridge city context, the rent measure is $2,194.54; this is a city-scope figure, not a ZIP observation. In Prince William County context, rent is $2,282 and vacancy is 3.1%, both county-scope context rather than a reading of the matched ZCTA. In the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context, rent is $2,448 and apartment vacancy is 6.8%; the metro figure also has an apartment-specific vacancy scope. The city value sits near the ZIP index, whereas county and metro values are higher, but different geographic coverage and rental universes prevent a direct substitution. These comparisons add scale, not a ranking, causal explanation, or forecast.
Important limits remain. ZORI is blended ZIP-level asking-rent evidence; ACS is a multiyear survey with reported margins of error; HUD is an administrative standard; and city, county, and metro context have wider geographic scopes. Sharing the ZIP/ZCTA label does not make their samples, time windows, or populations identical. For a property-specific decision, confirm the address is in the intended delivery ZIP, the advertised monthly rent and bedroom configuration, included utilities, availability date, lease duration, deposits, recurring charges, and any property-specific eligibility terms. Compare those facts with the relevant benchmark rather than treating an index, a survey median, a vacancy category, or a modelled bedroom estimate as a quote for that property. This check is necessary even where aggregate figures appear close.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s current rent signal is Zillow ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. It is useful for anchoring a broad current-market question, but it cannot identify the advertised price, utility treatment, lease terms, bedroom configuration, or condition of a particular home. Treat property terms as separate evidence.","title":"Current signal is a market index, not a listing quote"},{"body":"ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter households within a multiyear survey and includes selected utilities; it is not current asking rent. HUD Fair Market Rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent observation. Keeping both beside, rather than inside, ZORI prevents a current index from being mistaken for a survey median or program benchmark.","title":"Survey and standard answer different questions"},{"body":"Bedroom estimates are derived by scaling the ZIP-wide index with the local HUD ladder. They provide a consistent relative pattern from studios through larger configurations, but they are not observed bedroom medians, completed leases, or quoted listings. Their decision value is comparative: use them to understand the model’s allocation, then verify the property’s actual dimensions and asking terms.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled"},{"body":"The ZCTA housing inventory separates occupied, vacant, rental vacant, sale vacant, seasonal, and structure categories. This supports a broad read of stock and vacancy composition, not a claim that any identified address is available or rentable. A particular unit’s marketing status, timing, condition, and terms require property-level confirmation.","title":"Vacancy counts describe categories, not a unit"}],"risks":["A ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA share a label but not necessarily geography; applying a ZCTA survey result to a USPS delivery address can misstate the relevant area.","The ZORI index blends rental types and is not a quote, so advertised rent, included utilities, recurring charges, move timing, bedroom count, and lease terms can differ materially.","Vacancy categories are aggregate survey counts and do not prove that a unit is currently marketed, will be available on a selected date, or meets a household’s terms.","The burden share reflects surveyed renter households and gross rent, not a particular applicant’s finances, eligibility, utility package, or actual ability to secure a lease."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS gross rent is a multiyear survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD Fair Market Rent is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Their definitions and uses differ, so proximity between figures does not make them interchangeable.","q":"Why are ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD Fair Market Rent kept separate?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates obtained by scaling the overall ZORI with the relative local HUD ladder. They express a consistent bedroom pattern, not observed bedroom medians, completed leases, or quoted listings. They therefore cannot establish a home’s quoted rent, size, utility coverage, lease result, or availability.","q":"What do the bedroom estimates represent?"},{"a":"It is a mechanical annualization of monthly ZIP ZORI under the stated rent-share screen. It is not lending, leasing, eligibility, or affordability advice and cannot determine whether any household qualifies. Actual qualification can depend on the listing’s rent, charges, lease terms, utility treatment, and property-specific rules.","q":"How should the required-income figure be read?"},{"a":"Confirm the address’s intended delivery ZIP, advertised monthly rent, bedroom configuration, included utilities, recurring charges, deposits, availability date, and lease duration. Also distinguish current marketing from survey vacancy counts, and compare the listing with the appropriate benchmark without treating a market index or modelled estimate as the property’s actual rent.","q":"What must be checked for a specific property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — 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