Rather than a rising-rent story, the immediate signal in Woodbridge is a small reset against a still-higher regional context. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 22192 was $2,205 per month, down 0.5% from the prior year. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease record or a bedroom-specific measurement. In the same comparison, the Woodbridge city context was $2,195, the Prince William County context was $2,282, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context was $2,448. The ZIP therefore sat close to the city context but below both wider-context readings. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match, a useful geographic alignment rather than evidence that the underlying measures mean the same thing.
That latest decline breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer rent path. At the stated history endpoint, exact same-month ZORI changes were -0.5% over one year, 3.3% annualized over three years, and 4.9% annualized over five years. This is a backward-looking record, not a forecast or investment recommendation: a current cooling reading follows positive longer intervals but does not say where rent goes next. The series has 138 observations with full coverage. Monthly changes show 1.9% annualized variability, limiting the amount of observed month-to-month noise in this record. Separately, its maximum observed peak-to-trough drawdown was a 1.9% decline, which helps place the current snapshot in a relatively shallow historical pullback. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 1,838 for momentum, 60 for stability, and 839 for the balanced score; lower ranks are stronger. Stable history supports somewhat more confidence in one index snapshot, while the recent directional break remains material.
Scope explains why the rent benchmarks do not line up exactly. The matched Census ZCTA’s ACS five-year survey reports a 2024 median gross rent of $2,043, with a ±$104 margin of error. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series. The current ZORI is 7.9% above that survey median, a difference that can reflect their distinct populations and definitions rather than a contradiction. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Separately, the FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR is $2,290, 3.7% above the ZIP ZORI. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so it is a benchmark rather than a rental transaction observation.
Bedroom detail must be treated as a model, not as a set of observed ZIP rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,916 for a studio, $1,974 for one bedroom, $2,205 for two bedrooms, $2,783 for three bedrooms, and $3,274 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom figure lands on the headline index because that is the scale anchor; the other values preserve the local HUD ladder’s relative steps. They are not measured bedroom rents, live listing medians, or evidence that every unit of a given size commands that amount. Their useful role is a consistent size-sensitive screen tied to the ZIP’s current asking-rent index, while the HUD standards remain a separate administrative universe.
Housing composition adds a supply-side caution without identifying vacancy at any particular property. The matched ZCTA contained 21,370 housing units, of which 559 were vacant, for a 2.6% vacancy rate. Renters represented 23.1% of occupied homes, while the stock count included 17,219 single-family units. Those aggregate categories indicate how the ZCTA’s stock is distributed, but they neither establish that a given dwelling is available nor show its asking rent, condition, lease terms, or renter demand. The modest overall vacancy reading should therefore be read as population-level context alongside, not as a replacement for, current listings.
The income screen contains a second tension. Applying the structural 30% rule to annualized current ZORI produces $88,200 of required income. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS median household income is $127,177, and the same annualized asking-rent-to-income calculation equals 20.8%, below the screen threshold. Yet 2,157 renter households—44.8% of the renter households in the ACS burden tabulation—paid at least 30% of income toward rent. This burden result is a five-year survey measure for renter households, not proof of affordability, payment, or burden for a specific apartment. It also cannot turn the median-income comparison into a statement about which households can secure a particular lease.
Resale evidence confirms the short-run cooling signal but complicates a one-direction reading. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation recorded a $514,834 median sold price, 5.2% below a year earlier, with 201 homes sold and a median 34 days on market. Inventory was 127 homes and months of supply was 1.9. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.99%, while 42.1% of sales closed above list. These are for-sale transaction and listing signals, not rental transactions or rental comparables. Dividing annualized ZIP ZORI by the median sold price gives a 5.14% cross-source screening ratio only. The lower sale price and rent cooling challenge a simple extension of the longer positive rent history or a reading based only on median-income arithmetic, while observed sales volume, limited supply, and near-list signals document resale liquidity in this particular window; none converts the ratio into property economics.
The remaining limits are practical and material. ZORI is a ZIP asking-rent index, ACS describes ZCTA survey households, HUD supplies an administrative standard, and Redfin reports ZIP resales; differing source universes, timing, and unit definitions prevent them from serving as substitutes. None of these records establishes a specific property’s final rent, utilities, incentives, condition, operating costs, sale price, or availability. Concrete property-level checks that would resolve the gap include the advertised bedroom count and property type, current asking rent and lease length, utility responsibility, concessions and move-in charges, availability date, and whether the record is an active rental listing or a completed sale. The decision tension is therefore clear but bounded: recent asking-rent and resale softness sits beside a positive longer rent history, relatively stable measurements, and a median-income screen that differs sharply from observed renter burden. Which property-level facts confirm or overturn that aggregate picture remains unresolved by this packet.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP 22192’s June ZORI was $2,205, down 0.5% year over year, whereas exact same-month changes annualized to 3.3% over three years and 4.9% over five. The 138-observation history is fully covered, with 1.9% annualized monthly variability and a 1.9% peak-to-trough decline. Its stability rank of 60 is much stronger than its momentum rank of 1,838, framing today’s reading as a recent break in a stable backward-looking record.","title":"Near-term cooling interrupts, rather than erases, the rent run"},{"body":"The $2,205 ZORI is 7.9% above the ACS matched-ZCTA median gross rent of $2,043, but the comparison is descriptive rather than a discrepancy to resolve. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The FY 2026 HUD two-bedroom FMR is $2,290 and administrative. Its local ladder produces modelled, rather than measured, bedroom estimates.","title":"The benchmarks differ because their source universes differ"},{"body":"The annualized ZORI screen produces $88,200 at 30% of gross income, below the $127,177 ZIP-wide ACS median household income. Yet 44.8% of renter households were burdened at 30% or more, involving 2,157 households in the tabulation. That contrast prevents the median-income comparison from standing in for distributional affordability or any particular tenant’s payment experience. Housing stock and vacancy figures remain area aggregates.","title":"Median-income arithmetic conflicts with broad renter burden"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale record shows a $514,834 median sold price, down 5.2% year over year, alongside 201 homes sold, 1.9 months of supply, and a 99.99% average sale-to-list ratio. The 5.14% rent-price figure only combines annualized ZORI with that resale median. It is a cross-source screen, not a property-level measure of operating economics.","title":"Resale softness coexists with active ZIP transaction signals"}],"risks":["ZORI blends rental types into a typical asking-rent index, so it cannot establish the advertised price, concessions, utilities, property condition, lease terms, or availability for any individual home.","The ACS result is a five-year ZCTA survey with sampling uncertainty and selected-utility treatment; its population of occupied renter households differs from both delivery ZIPs and current asking listings.","HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom standard, and the bedroom figures are ZORI-scaled modelled estimates. Neither source directly observes current bedroom-specific lease rents in this ZIP.","Redfin tracks completed ZIP resale activity over a rolling three-month window. Its sale price and liquidity signals neither provide rental comparables nor establish operating expenses, financing, or outcomes for a property."],"qa":[{"a":"It is Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index for 22192, blended across rental types. It is not a measurement of a specific unit, a bedroom-specific median, a completed lease, or an ACS gross-rent result that includes selected utilities.","q":"What does the $2,205 ZORI figure represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a 2024 five-year survey median of $2,043 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a June 2026 typical observed asking-rent index. The 7.9% gap describes distinct universes, and the ZCTA is a statistical area rather than identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","q":"Why does the ACS gross-rent figure differ from ZORI?"},{"a":"No. Annualizing ZORI and applying 30% produces $88,200 solely as arithmetic. The ZIP-wide median household income and the ACS renter-burden share describe aggregates from different frames. They do not verify a household’s income or payment, a listed unit’s availability, or that unit’s actual lease, utility, and concession terms.","q":"Does the income calculation show that an applicant can afford a unit?"},{"a":"That percentage is the mechanical result of annualizing the $2,205 ZIP ZORI and dividing it by Redfin’s $514,834 ZIP median sold price. Redfin reports direct resale activity while ZORI tracks asking rents. The result has no property-specific costs, financing, occupancy, lease, or transaction detail and cannot establish a financial outcome.","q":"Why is the 5.14% rent-price figure only a screen?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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