The central tension in this ZIP is subdued asking-rent movement alongside a much sharper for-sale signal. Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, stands at $2,819 per month and is up only 0.31% year over year. By contrast, Redfin’s direct ZIP resale median sold price is $817,315, up 20.55% year over year in its rolling-three-month for-sale observation. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that median sold price equals 4.14%; this is a cross-source screening ratio only, not a unit-level income or return result. The data therefore show a current rent snapshot that is nearly flat while resale pricing has moved much more forcefully.
Longer Zillow history puts the recent pause in perspective without turning it into a forecast. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 0.31% over one year, 2.31% over three years, and 4.37% over five years, so the latest direction breaks from the stronger longer-run growth path rather than confirming it. The history contains 138 monthly observations with complete coverage. Its 2.12% annualized variability points to relatively narrow month-to-month index movement, which supports more confidence in the broad current level than in a rapidly changing series. Still, the maximum peak-to-trough drawdown was 9.26%, demonstrating that a stable-looking path has included a meaningful setback. Transparent national discovery results reinforce that split: momentum scored 36.02 and ranked 1,891 among history-eligible ZIPs, while stability scored 92.66 and ranked 214; the balanced score was 58.67 with a rank of 1,003. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence describes for-sale transactions only, not rental deals or rental comparables. It recorded 136 homes sold, a median 31 days on market, inventory of 98 homes, and 2.2 months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.84%, while 33.36% of sales closed above list and 55.11% went off market within two weeks. Together, those liquidity and sale-to-list signals sit beside the sharp resale price change cited above. They challenge the muted recent rent-history reading, but they do not establish that a renter will face a particular asking rent or that a specific property’s resale outcome follows the ZIP aggregate.
The bedroom series is a set of modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. It scales the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, producing monthly estimates of $2,451 for a studio, $2,526 for one bedroom, $2,819 for two bedrooms, $3,555 for three bedrooms, and $4,182 for four bedrooms. The underlying HUD two-bedroom fair-market-rent standard is $3,370, placing the ZIP ZORI 16.35% below that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR or SAFMR is a bedroom-specific program standard rather than an asking-rent observation, so neither the HUD figure nor the scaled bedroom estimates should be treated as a direct listing comp for a unit.
The matched ACS five-year survey gives a different affordability universe. Its median gross rent is $2,550, including selected utilities for occupied renter homes, which is 10.55% below the current Zillow asking-rent index. ACS reports median household income of $145,000. Applying the 30% arithmetic screen to the ZIP ZORI produces a required annual income of $112,760, and the asking-rent-to-income comparison equals 23.33%. That screen is arithmetic rather than advice or an applicant qualification rule. Separately, 32.27% of surveyed renter households reported spending at least 30% of income on rent. The burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter homes, not a particular available apartment, household, lease, or utility package.
The same ACS ZCTA data show a renter-oriented housing base, with renter-occupied homes representing 67.64% of occupied units. The vacancy rate is 8.81%, including 556 units classified as vacant and for rent, while the structure mix is weighted toward large multifamily buildings rather than single-family stock. These figures help describe the ZIP’s aggregate inventory and occupancy composition. They cannot verify whether any given unit is vacant, habitable, competitively priced, available on a desired date, or offered with the same lease terms reflected in an advertised asking rent.
Wider geography offers context rather than substitute evidence. In the Arlington city context and the Arlington County context, Zillow rent is $2,722 in each case; in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context, it is $2,448. The ZIP’s current asking-rent index is therefore above each broader rent context. City and county context also show lower renter shares and vacancy rates, but higher rent-burden shares, than the ZIP’s matched ACS ZCTA figures. Metro apartment vacancy and apartment marketing-time measures remain metro-level context, not ZIP rental transactions. These comparisons frame the scale of the ZIP reading but should not be blended into the direct ZIP ZORI, ACS, HUD, or Redfin measures.
The five-digit label 22201 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Source boundaries matter: Zillow measures blended observed asking rents, ACS surveys occupied renter homes, HUD supplies administrative standards, and Redfin observes ZIP resale activity. None replaces property-level evidence. Translating these aggregates to a specific address would require checking the live asking rent, exact bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, availability date, unit condition, and relevant sale comparables with their transaction timing and physical characteristics. The unresolved question is whether verified unit terms and address-specific resale evidence reconcile the ZIP’s flat recent asking-rent momentum with its much stronger aggregate resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest asking-rent index is nearly unchanged from a year earlier, while the direct ZIP resale series reports a much larger sale-price increase. That difference is the key decision tension. It can occur because asking-rent and resale sources describe different markets, but it limits the usefulness of treating either current rent or sale-price movement as a standalone conclusion.","title":"Rent and resale signals diverge"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled estimates derived by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD bedroom ladder. They are useful for showing relative bedroom spacing within the model, but they are not observed rents for available units. HUD’s underlying fair-market-rent standard is administrative and bedroom-specific, not a measure of asking rent.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates"},{"body":"The ZORI-based income screen is a simple arithmetic comparison against median household income, whereas ACS gross rent and rent burden describe surveyed occupied renter homes over a five-year period. ACS gross rent includes selected utilities, and its burden share cannot establish the affordability, utility cost, or qualification outcome for a particular advertised unit.","title":"Affordability measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The ACS ZCTA indicates a renter-heavy, multifamily-weighted housing stock and a measurable share of units classified as vacant for rent. Those data describe aggregate housing conditions only. They do not confirm that a particular building has an open unit, that an advertised unit is ready for occupancy, or that its lease terms align with the ZIP-level asking-rent index.","title":"Aggregate vacancy does not identify availability"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI is a blended ZIP asking-rent index across rental types, so it may not match the size, condition, utility treatment, concession structure, or lease terms of a specific available dwelling.","ACS data are a five-year survey of occupied homes in a matched statistical area, not a live listing feed, and the ZCTA boundary is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.","The bedroom ladder is modelled from ZORI and HUD standards. It should not be interpreted as evidence that listings in each bedroom category are actually asking those estimated amounts.","Redfin measures rolling-three-month ZIP resale activity. Its price, supply, marketing, and sale-to-list indicators do not measure rental transactions, operating costs, or the economics of an individual property."],"qa":[{"a":"Each figure belongs to a distinct evidence universe. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. The modelled bedroom figures use Zillow and HUD inputs rather than direct bedroom-level rent observations.","q":"Why does the report show different rent figures?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure simply annualizes the ZIP asking-rent index and divides it by 30%. It is an arithmetic screen, not advice, a landlord policy, an underwriting rule, or an applicant qualification result. Actual qualification can depend on lease terms, income definition, household composition, concessions, deposits, and other property-specific factors not contained in this packet.","q":"Does the required-income screen determine whether an applicant qualifies?"},{"a":"No. The resale evidence is a direct ZIP for-sale observation, while Zillow history measures asking-rent index movement. The contrast is decision-relevant because the series moved differently, but it does not supply causation or a forecast. Sale prices, listing competition, and rent asks should remain separate observations until property-level evidence establishes a specific relationship.","q":"Does stronger resale pricing prove that rents will rise?"},{"a":"Useful verification would include the address-level asking rent, advertised availability date, exact bedroom and bathroom count, square footage if provided, included utilities, concession expiration, lease length, furnishing status, and physical condition. For a resale comparison, relevant checks include transaction timing, property type, condition, unit features, list-to-sale history, and whether the comparable is genuinely similar to the address being evaluated.","q":"What property-level checks would clarify the aggregate signals?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":2150.241535},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":2150.573224},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":2169.301954},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":2157.162838},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":2148.729478},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":2157.019212},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":2173.256882},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":2191.546876},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":2193.611295},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":2214.578011},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":2200.349032},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":2213.638828},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":2217.206307},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":2223.862201},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":2201.914023},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":2198.485265},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":2211.633812},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":2222.207387},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":2221.965394},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":2219.796565},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":2220.849225},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":2229.088381},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2225.863771},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2241.397784},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2242.291553},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":2243.243148},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2241.807394},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2243.429032},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2245.701717},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2247.669374},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2249.441282},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":2244.31873},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":2244.50173},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":2232.728181},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":2243.474736},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":2223.567881},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2219.246711},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2227.039703},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2248.453097},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2270.285205},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2270.467887},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2268.580974},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2277.168126},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2279.967418},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2287.490384},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2277.524243},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2294.25447},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2310.351924},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2340.284071},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2331.556488},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2329.81295},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2323.416983},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2330.496964},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2339.432388},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2342.647898},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2353.969317},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2358.917402},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2380.965832},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2374.334494},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2378.522111},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2367.659762},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2380.345637},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2374.484341},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2355.551975},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2330.168586},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2299.515812},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2269.802316},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2244.050532},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2224.947524},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2196.674066},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2182.525425},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2160.579079},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2174.449774},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2195.440455},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2203.300337},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2218.02445},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2236.129865},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2276.343431},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2315.164919},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2345.636883},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2382.39735},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2419.986118},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2455.027216},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2466.88676},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2463.031573},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2454.070405},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2464.797555},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2476.159836},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2501.164345},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2519.174524},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2543.057498},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2550.945013},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2568.15048},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2572.173257},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2565.389902},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2578.357822},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2594.111159},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2616.48854},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2616.345529},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2620.026799},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2621.387627},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2632.23616},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2636.187052},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2643.261628},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2623.675244},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2630.351244},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2646.898554},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2672.847197},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2676.55826},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2680.166311},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2701.471577},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2727.542366},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2747.313014},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2745.811075},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2750.087592},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2755.701455},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2780.858713},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2798.613746},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2813.188302},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2803.717955},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2806.173203},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2826.251208},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2831.785717},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2828.791257},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2808.674505},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2810.2197},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2813.937243},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2818.035069},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2817.755234},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2812.265746},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2806.141097},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2809.322029},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2814.026666},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2803.87302},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2799.612699},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2798.37953},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2812.67098},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2819.06475}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2810.2197,"endRent":2819.06475,"change":0.003147458542120285,"cagr":0.003147458542120285},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2632.23616,"endRent":2819.06475,"change":0.07097713831269603,"cagr":0.023120374699262092},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2276.343431,"endRent":2819.06475,"change":0.23841803113231563,"cagr":0.04369464052050498}},"maxDrawdown":-0.09256191333702424,"annualizedVolatility":0.02119514877136853,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}