ZIP 22202 enters this review with a cross-market tension rather than a uniform signal. At the supplied Zillow endpoint, Zillow ZORI is $2,717 per month, down 1.91% from the same month a year earlier. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a current asking-rent benchmark rather than a lease-by-lease measure. The decline matters because the longer rent record remains positive, while the direct ZIP resale evidence records a sharply different recent price movement. One current rent figure therefore cannot support a complete valuation, demand, or unit-level conclusion.
Backward-looking Zillow history shows the recent decline breaking from the longer path: the exact same-month change is negative over one year, while the three-year and five-year annualized changes are 2.46% and 4.64%, respectively. Monthly rent changes annualize to 3.83% variability, which reduces confidence that a single current reading fully represents the ZIP’s rent path. The historical peak-to-trough drawdown reached 13.64%, a separate sign that prior soft periods have been meaningful. Coverage is 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,264 for momentum, 2,501 for stability, and 2,687 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger; these are discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
ZIP 22202 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $2,484 median gross rent among occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is not the same universe as Zillow asking rent. Zillow’s current index is 9.38% above that ACS figure. For wider context only, the Arlington city scope has a $2,722.44 rent figure, the Arlington County scope has $2,722, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro scope has $2,448; none is a substitute for the ZIP observation.
The local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder supplies the bedroom scaling, but HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Applying that ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled ZIP estimates, never measured bedroom rents: $2,362 for a studio, $2,435 for one bedroom, $2,717 for two bedrooms, $3,426 for three bedrooms, and $4,031 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring the overall level to Zillow’s blended rent index. They should not be used as evidence that any available unit, lease, building, or submarket actually commands the stated bedroom amount.
The 30% required-income screen converts the Zillow index into $108,680 of annual income. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $133,762, making the annualized Zillow index equal to 24.37% of that median income, but household medians cannot establish a particular renter’s budget. ACS also reports 4,948 renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent out of 12,740 renter households, or 38.84%. That burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter homes, not the affordability, payment history, or lease terms of a specific vacant unit.
The matched ZCTA contains 18,436 housing units, including 2,316 vacant units, for a 12.56% vacancy rate. Renters occupy a 79.03% share of occupied homes, and the structure mix is concentrated in large multifamily buildings, with 15,206 such units. This stock composition helps frame why a blended rent index can span materially different rental products. Vacancy is an area-level count and rate, however, not proof that a particular unit is rentable, physically available, competitively priced, or comparable with the Zillow index. It also does not distinguish unit condition, concession use, or lease duration.
The supplied direct ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $1,049,763, up 34.24% year over year; 40 homes sold with a median 41 days on market, inventory of 67 homes, and five months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.05%, while 30.8% of sales closed above list price. Those signals are not uniformly directional: the strong sale-price change challenges a simple reading of the recent asking-rent decline and income screen, while supply and sale-to-list data add separate resale-market context. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 3.11%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of property economics or return.
Decision use depends on retaining these boundaries. Zillow measures blended observed asking rents; ACS measures surveyed occupied renter homes and selected utilities; HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder; and Redfin records rolling ZIP resale conditions. None supplies unit-specific rent, operating costs, concessions, tenant income, financing terms, or building condition. Concrete property-level checks should therefore verify the unit’s actual bedroom count, advertised rent, included utilities, lease term, availability, concessions, and recent listing or sale status. They should also confirm whether the address aligns with the relevant ZIP and whether its physical characteristics make the broad index and modelled bedroom estimate reasonably comparable.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow ZORI declined 1.91% over the latest same-month year, yet its three-year and five-year annualized changes remain positive. The recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer historical path. History is fully covered in the supplied record, but prior variability and drawdown indicate that a current index reading should be interpreted as a snapshot rather than a stable endpoint.","title":"Recent rent softness conflicts with the longer rent path"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level blended asking-rent index. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey statistic for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. The modelled studio-through-four-bedroom figures use HUD’s local ladder to scale Zillow ZORI, so they are useful comparative estimates but not observed bedroom rents.","title":"Rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The annual income implied by allocating 30% of income to the ZIP ZORI is below the matched ZCTA median household income. That arithmetic screen does not describe actual household finances or leasing eligibility. At the same time, ACS reports that a substantial share of surveyed renter households paid at least 30% of income toward rent, showing why median-income comparisons cannot replace renter-level burden evidence.","title":"Area-level income screen and burden evidence diverge"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale record shows a large year-over-year median sold-price increase while Zillow asking rent declined over the latest year. Resale supply, marketing time, and sale-to-list measures provide separate for-sale context rather than rental comparables. The annualized-rent-to-sale-price figure is only a cross-source screening ratio and should not be interpreted as an operating, financing, or investment-return measure.","title":"Resale price movement challenges a simple rent-only reading"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI blends observed asking rents across rental types, so a specific listing’s bedroom count, utilities, condition, lease term, availability, and concessions can materially differ from the ZIP index even when the ZIP figure is current.","The Census ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, and ACS figures are five-year survey estimates with margins of error rather than a current census of every renter household or unit.","Recent negative rent direction follows a historically positive longer path, while measured variability and prior drawdown show that extrapolating from either the latest reading or the longer average can overstate certainty.","Redfin resale data describe for-sale transactions and listings, not rental transactions. Median sold price and the rent-to-price screening ratio cannot establish rent, expenses, financing outcomes, or economics for a particular property."],"qa":[{"a":"The Zillow figure is ZIP-level ZORI: a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful as a broad current asking-rent benchmark, but it is not a signed-lease average, a unit-specific quote, a bedroom-specific observed rent, or a measure of tenant payments.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom amounts are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall Zillow ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so these figures should not be treated as measured rents for available units.","q":"Are the bedroom figures actual observed rents for studio through four-bedroom homes?"},{"a":"No. It simply divides annualized Zillow ZORI by 30% to produce an arithmetic required-income screen. It is not financial advice, a tenant qualification rule, or evidence about a particular household. The ACS rent-burden statistic separately describes surveyed renter households in occupied homes.","q":"Does the 30% income calculation determine whether a renter can afford a unit?"},{"a":"The Redfin block is a direct rolling ZIP resale observation covering for-sale conditions such as sold prices, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It does not report rental transactions or operating costs. Dividing annualized ZORI by median sold price is therefore only a cross-source screening ratio.","q":"Why should the resale statistics not be treated as rental performance evidence?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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