At $2,995, the latest Zillow ZIP ZORI for 22203 places the typical observed asking-rent index above a broad-market reference point while still showing only 1.3% year-over-year growth. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a quote for one available home. The five-digit label is both Zillow's ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geographic distinction matters when applying either rent or household data to a specific address.
The longer Zillow history shows a cooling pace rather than a reversal: same-month annualized growth was 1.27% over one year, 3.28% over three years, and 4.60% over five years. Recent rent direction therefore remains positive but has slowed materially from the longer path. Monthly rent changes produced 2.57% annualized variability, which argues against treating one current index reading as a precise fixed level. Separately, the history experienced a 7.05% maximum drawdown, evidence that the prior path included a meaningful decline. Coverage is 100% of expected observations. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 1,405 for momentum, 826 for stability, and 959 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation adds a different tension. Redfin reports a $551,875 median sold price, down 5.26% year over year, even as 65 homes sold with a 29-day median marketing time. Active listings numbered 133, reported inventory was 53 homes, and months of supply stood at 2.5. The sale-to-list signals were firm: the average sale-to-list result was 101.06%, 39.72% of sales closed above list, and 57.16% went off market within two weeks. This is for-sale market evidence, not rental transactions. Falling resale prices challenge a simple reading of steadily strengthening housing values, while positive asking-rent growth and competitive sale-to-list signals keep the picture mixed. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals a 6.51% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a measure of property economics.
The bedroom view is deliberately modelled rather than measured. It scales the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder and yields monthly estimates of $2,601 for a studio, $2,690 for one bedroom, $2,995 for two bedrooms, $3,783 for three bedrooms, and $4,443 for four bedrooms. The corresponding HUD standards are $2,640, $2,730, $3,040, $3,840, and $4,510. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so the near alignment of the modelled two-bedroom estimate with the HUD benchmark does not establish what any two-bedroom is listed for. Bedroom, condition, lease term, utilities, concessions, and timing can all differ from this scaling exercise.
The income screen is favorable only in a narrow arithmetic sense. A $2,995 monthly asking-rent level requires $119,800 in annual income at a 30% screen; the matched ZCTA median household income is $140,135, producing a 25.6% asking-rent-to-income calculation below that screen boundary. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; median household income also does not identify the income of a renter seeking a particular unit. The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $2,416, lower than ZORI because ACS surveys occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities rather than measuring current asking rent. Even so, 39.3% of surveyed renter households reported spending 30% or more of income on rent, so the aggregate screen should not be read as proof of affordability for an individual household.
Housing composition helps frame why an all-property rent index may conceal important variation. The matched ACS ZCTA reports 14,911 housing units, including 9,750 renter-occupied homes, and 9,724 units in large multifamily structures. Overall vacancy is 7.6%, but that total spans categories such as units for rent, for sale, seasonal use, and other vacant classifications. It is therefore a market-level stock measure, not evidence that a desired bedroom type, building, price point, or lease term is presently available. Likewise, the renter-majority structure describes the statistical area and cannot establish the experience of one building or unit.
Wider figures provide context but should not replace the ZIP evidence: the Arlington city context and Arlington County context each show a $2,722 rent level, while the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro context is $2,448. Those city, county, and metro values are broader-scope comparisons, whereas the $2,995 ZORI and the Redfin resale measures are ZIP-specific. The ZIP's higher asking-rent index relative to each context is consistent with the modelled bedroom ladder and the elevated required-income screen, but the slower recent rent growth and lower resale median price caution against reducing the area to a single strength signal.
Several limits should govern use of this report. ZORI is an index, ACS is a five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin is a rolling resale observation; none substitutes for property-level rental comps or a current listing. Before applying the figures to an address, verify the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, lease start date, included utilities, concessions, building type, condition, availability, and whether the address maps to the relevant ZIP and ZCTA. For a sale comparison, check the underlying listing and closing records rather than extending the ZIP median to a particular property. The central question is not whether one indicator is decisive, but whether the specific unit's terms remain consistent with the separate rent, affordability, stock, and resale evidence.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP asking rent remained positive year over year, but the one-year change was slower than the three-year and five-year annualized changes. Complete history coverage strengthens confidence that the slowdown is observed rather than a missing-data artifact. Still, prior drawdown and monthly variability mean the current Zillow index should be interpreted as a current benchmark, not a permanently stable rent level.","title":"Cooling rent path with complete history"},{"body":"The required-income calculation falls below the 30% screen when compared with matched ZCTA median household income. That comparison is only an aggregate arithmetic screen, because household income is not renter income and does not evaluate an applicant. The substantial share of surveyed renter households with high rent burden supplies an important counterweight to a simple median-income conclusion.","title":"Affordability screen is below the boundary but burden remains material"},{"body":"The ZIP resale median declined year over year, which challenges a straightforward positive reading of the rent index. Yet the direct resale observation also showed sales activity, limited months of supply, an above-list share, and average sale-to-list results above list. These are for-sale signals only and should not be converted into rental demand, rent growth, or property-level economics.","title":"Resale evidence is mixed rather than uniformly weak"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are useful for preserving the local HUD bedroom relationship around the ZIP rent index, but they are not measured bedroom rents. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks, while Zillow measures asking-rent conditions, so differences between them are expected.","title":"Bedroom figures are a scaling tool"}],"risks":["Zillow ZORI blends rental types and reflects a typical observed asking-rent index, so it may not match the rent, bedroom mix, concessions, utilities, lease term, or condition of a specific available unit.","ACS ZCTA figures are five-year survey estimates for occupied renter homes, include selected utilities in gross rent, and carry sampling uncertainty; they cannot be treated as current lease quotes or applicant-level affordability evidence.","Redfin's rolling-three-month ZIP figures describe resale activity rather than rental transactions. Median sold price, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list results can vary across property types and are not direct rental comparables.","The modelled bedroom ladder and rent-price screening ratio combine distinct source universes. Confirm actual listing terms, property characteristics, address geography, utility treatment, and transaction records before relying on any market-level comparison."],"qa":[{"a":"It converts the current ZIP asking-rent index into an annual income threshold using a fixed 30% share. Comparing that threshold with median household income produces an area-level arithmetic result, not a judgment about whether any renter can afford a unit, qualify for a lease, or face an acceptable housing cost.","q":"What does the 30% required-income screen actually show?"},{"a":"The measures answer different questions. Zillow ZORI tracks typical observed asking-rent conditions across rental types, while ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Existing leases, utility treatment, survey timing, and the distinction between occupied homes and current listings can all create a gap.","q":"Why is ACS median gross rent lower than the Zillow asking-rent index?"},{"a":"The resale data identify a mixed for-sale setting: the median sold price fell year over year, but sale-to-list signals and marketing time did not indicate a uniformly soft transaction picture. That tension supports caution when interpreting positive rent growth, because resale and rental observations are separate markets with different measurement methods.","q":"How should the resale data affect interpretation of the rent figures?"},{"a":"Verify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, included utilities, concessions, lease duration, building type, condition, availability date, and address geography. For a sale comparison, review the individual listing and closing details. These checks determine whether a specific property resembles the broad ZIP index, ACS survey universe, HUD ladder, or resale sample.","q":"What should be checked before using these ZIP-level figures for a property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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