The central measured tension is a $3,463 monthly ZIP asking-rent index beside a $1,574,644 resale median: annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sale price is only a 2.64% cross-source screening ratio. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP ZORI describes typical observed asking rent blended across rental types, while the resale figure belongs to the for-sale market. Those figures can sit in the same ZIP without measuring the same homes, transactions, or costs. The rent index is therefore useful as a current asking-rent snapshot, but its relationship to resale pricing should not be treated as unit-level economics.
The backward-looking rent path remains positive but has moderated relative to its longer record. The exact same-month one-year annualized change was 3.6%, versus 4.9% over three years and 5.9% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms continued rent growth, yet breaks from the faster pace embedded in the longer path. History has complete coverage across 78 observations. Variability of 3.7% in annualized monthly returns means a single current rent snapshot deserves measured confidence rather than unquestioned precision; monthly movements have not been uniform. Separately, the worst historical peak-to-trough drawdown was 3.7%, showing that the series did experience reversals even during a positive multiyear record. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 555 for momentum, 2,392 for stability, and 1,279 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. These are historical measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
The five-digit label 22207 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That distinction matters because ACS 2024 five-year data describe occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, not current advertised units. Its median gross rent was $2,274 and includes selected utilities, whereas Zillow measures asking rent. The ZIP asking-rent index was 52.3% above that ACS median. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom standard was $2,650; HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. These are complementary evidence universes rather than interchangeable rental comparables.
The bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder, not measured bedroom rents. The resulting monthly ladder is $3,006 for a studio, $3,110 for one bedroom, $3,463 for two bedrooms, $4,365 for three bedrooms, and $5,136 for four bedrooms. It provides a transparent size-based way to organize the ZIP-level rent index, but it cannot establish the advertised rent of a particular floorplan, building, condition level, or lease. The HUD ladder supplies the relative bedroom scaling; it does not convert these estimates into observed bedroom-specific asking-rent transactions.
At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current ZIP asking-rent index implies $138,520 in required annual income. The matched ZCTA’s median household income was $245,745, producing a 16.9% asking-rent-to-income comparison, but that arithmetic is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS renter burden measure adds a different household-level lens: 45.8% of renter households, or 1,179 of 2,574, reported spending at least 30% of income on gross rent. In city context, Arlington’s rent index was $2,722; in Arlington County context it was also $2,722; and in Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metro context it was $2,448. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider-geography context, not substitutes for the ZIP reading.
The matched ZCTA’s housing stock was more owner-oriented than the broader Arlington context. ACS counted 12,837 housing units and 606 vacant units, a 4.7% vacancy rate, while renters represented 21.0% of occupied households. The structure count included 10,837 single-family units and 1,174 units in larger multifamily structures. ACS also recorded 23 vacant units for rent. Because these are survey-based stock and vacancy measures rather than live listings, neither the vacancy rate nor the vacant-for-rent count proves availability, pricing, condition, or concessions for a particular unit. Likewise, the burden result does not establish affordability for any individual household or property.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale evidence describes for-sale activity only, not rental transactions. Median sold price was $1,574,644, up 5.15% year over year, with 126 homes sold and a median 11 days on market. Redfin reported inventory of 97 homes and 2.3 months of supply. Sale-to-list evidence was firm: the average sale-to-list ratio was 102.26%, 50.45% of sales closed above list, and 63.16% went off market within two weeks. This resale liquidity and price movement confirm that the ZIP’s for-sale observations were active, but they challenge any simple extension from resale strength to rental acceleration because one-year ZORI growth was slower than the three-year and five-year rent-history measures. The screening ratio remains only a cross-source screen, not a measure of property operations or expected results.
Key limits stem from timing, geography, and definition. Zillow is a blended asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year ZCTA survey of occupied homes; HUD is an administrative standard; and Redfin is a direct ZIP resale observation. None supplies a verified rent roll, lease concession record, utility bill, maintenance profile, or property-specific sale comparison. A property-level review can confirm the precise delivery ZIP and market ZIP, current advertised rent and concessions, bedroom count, included utilities, lease term, occupancy status, physical condition, and whether a sale record is comparable in property type and date. Those checks determine whether these distinct datasets meaningfully apply to the specific home being examined.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP ZORI was $3,463, while the matched ACS ZCTA five-year median gross rent was $2,274. The difference reflects distinct universes: ZORI tracks typical observed asking rent across rental types, while ACS describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The comparison is informative but not a same-unit rent comparison.","title":"Rent snapshot is high relative to survey rent"},{"body":"Exact same-month rent growth was 3.6% over one year, compared with 4.9% over three years and 5.9% over five years. That pattern retains positive momentum while showing a slower recent rate. Complete history coverage helps interpretation, but elevated variability limits confidence in treating one current ZORI value as a stable unit-level quote.","title":"Growth stayed positive but slowed from its multiyear pace"},{"body":"The 30% arithmetic screen produces required annual income of $138,520, below the ZCTA median household income of $245,745. Yet 45.8% of renter households reported gross-rent burdens at or above 30% of income in ACS. The first is a mechanical index screen; the second is a survey-based household outcome, neither proving affordability for a specific applicant.","title":"Income screen and renter burden point to different questions"},{"body":"Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale data show a high median sold price, short marketing time, limited months of supply, and sale-to-list results above 100%. Those are for-sale market observations. They can contextualize the rent-price screening ratio, but do not establish lease demand, operating costs, net income, or bedroom-specific rents.","title":"Resale liquidity is active, but it is not rental evidence"}],"risks":["The ACS figures apply to a matched ZCTA five-year survey universe with sampling uncertainty and occupied-home definitions, so they should not be treated as current listing inventory or a precise rent quote for one address.","Zillow ZORI blends rental types into a typical asking-rent index. Building mix, lease terms, included utilities, concessions, and unit condition can cause a particular advertised rent to differ materially from the ZIP index.","Historical ZORI gains, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks are backward-looking measurements. They describe the observed series through the endpoint and do not establish future rent movement or a future resale outcome.","Redfin measures direct ZIP resale activity in a rolling three-month period. Fast sales, sale-to-list outcomes, and limited supply are not rental transactions and cannot prove the economics or availability of a particular rental home."],"qa":[{"a":"The two sources observe different universes. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, while ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA and includes selected utilities. Differences in timing, home mix, occupancy status, and utility treatment can all separate their levels.","q":"Why does the Zillow asking-rent index exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"One-year growth remained positive at 3.6%, but it was below the three-year 4.9% and five-year 5.9% annualized measures. That means recent direction still aligns with growth, while the pace has slowed. Annualized monthly-return variability and the prior drawdown mean the current reading should be interpreted as a useful index snapshot rather than a fixed path.","q":"What does the rent-history pattern say about the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates made by scaling the overall ZIP ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD’s standards are administrative and bedroom-specific, not asking-rent observations. The modelled ladder should therefore be matched against an actual property’s bedroom count, utilities, condition, and advertised terms.","q":"Are the bedroom rents observed market rents?"},{"a":"It is simply annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s median ZIP sold price, combining two distinct sources for a high-level cross-source screen. Redfin’s underlying figures are direct rolling-three-month resale evidence, while ZORI is asking-rent evidence. The ratio does not include operating expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy, or property-specific rental income.","q":"How should the Redfin rent-price screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2537.880013},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2564.230241},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2586.086696},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2573.977085},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2530.875913},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2531.742708},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2554.491732},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2570.944901},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2556.338653},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2562.107977},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2521.956382},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2517.960116},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2491.245949},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2527.353924},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2539.173599},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2564.152741},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2583.147737},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2605.798219},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2630.265102},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2666.747195},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2658.258919},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2668.678235},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2688.868752},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2763.318862},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2736.453727},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2700.708373},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2724.687818},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2819.910184},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2865.853438},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2859.310931},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2859.455795},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2889.877408},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2917.120487},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2940.083669},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2972.119076},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2916.106947},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2983.823651},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2968.291499},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":3021.973059},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2935.099072},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2964.909092},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2999.490829},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":3026.694539},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":3010.677457},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":3070.302351},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":3091.244263},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":3110.376676},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":3125.753534},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":3152.422611},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":3205.514609},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":3149.19232},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":3165.666567},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":3150.925472},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":3166.157973},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":3158.953863},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":3156.773296},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":3174.376262},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":3184.959777},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":3205.214015},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":3262.589225},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":3250.806367},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":3297.271548},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":3285.950282},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":3309.034877},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":3326.302306},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":3342.617374},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":3366.686619},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":3402.019015},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":3383.969911},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":3392.613174},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":3391.995203},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":3381.537107},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":3395.925335},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":3369.964663},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":3425.360167},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":3445.640929},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":3461.829503},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":3462.928063}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":78,"firstPeriod":"2020-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":78,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":3342.617374,"endRent":3462.928063,"change":0.035992958672391495,"cagr":0.035992958672391495},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2999.490829,"endRent":3462.928063,"change":0.15450530120624006,"cagr":0.04905593184093249},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2605.798219,"endRent":3462.928063,"change":0.32893177904194437,"cagr":0.05852358108115863}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03667345999911509,"annualizedVolatility":0.03670017701847523,"consecutiveReturnCount":77}}