This ZIP presents a split between a nearly stationary rent index and a forceful resale-price reading. Zillow’s ZIP ZORI is $2,804 per month, only 0.01% above the same month a year earlier. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not a lease record or a measured bedroom quote. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation reports a $764,827 median sold price, up 71.87% year over year. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by that sold-price median is 4.40%, solely a cross-source screening ratio; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. The price result therefore does not confirm present asking-rent momentum; it is the central evidence tension.
The label 22209 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matching Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, so its survey results are a geographic match rather than a mailing-address test. In the matched ACS five-year survey, median gross rent is $2,203 and includes selected utilities in occupied renter homes; the asking index is 27.3% higher. That gap compares unlike universes, not competing quotes. For wider context only, the city-context rent for Arlington is $2,722, the county-context rent for Arlington County is $2,722, and the metro-context rent for Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV is $2,448. Each is a wider-scope benchmark, not a ZIP rental observation.
Bedroom detail is modelled rather than observed. The studio estimate of $2,437 and four-bedroom estimate of $4,160 scale the ZIP ZORI through the local HUD bedroom ladder; the intervening bedroom figures use the same scale and are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. Since the model starts with a blended ZORI, it cannot substitute for unit-specific listings. At the 30% screen, the current monthly index implies $112,160 in annual required income. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $120,515, producing a 27.9% asking-rent-to-income screen. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule.
The affordability screen is not the same as observed household strain. ACS identifies 2,511 renter households at or above the 30% burden threshold, equal to 40.9% of its occupied renter-home universe. This five-year survey result cannot establish the burden of a particular household or the terms of a particular lease. The same ACS tabulation has 9,684 housing units and 8,600 occupied units, yielding an 11.2% vacancy rate. Renter occupancy represents 71.4% of occupied homes, while 7,559 units are in large multifamily structures. That stock and vacancy profile describes an aggregate ZCTA, not an available unit; it neither demonstrates vacancy in a specific building nor identifies a concession.
History provides a separate check on the current snapshot. Exact same-month annualized change was 0.0134% over one year, versus 2.0161% across three years and 4.1562% across five years. The almost flat recent direction breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer upward path, supporting the supplied cooling classification without predicting what comes next. The direct Zillow ZIP ZORI history has 100% coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.65% means prior changes were not perfectly smooth, limiting confidence in a single current rent snapshot. A -9.88% maximum drawdown separately shows a material historical retreat from an earlier peak. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 2,026 for momentum, 981 for stability, and 1,733 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher; these are backward-looking comparisons, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale liquidity adds a second internal tension inside the for-sale universe. At the stated endpoint, the direct rolling-three-month ZIP observation recorded 60 homes sold and a median 48 days on market. Inventory stood at 88 homes, 52% higher year over year, with 4.5 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 98.51%, 18.98% of sales closed above list, and 38.57% went off market within two weeks. These are resale marketing and supply signals, not rental transactions. Placed against nearly flat ZORI and a below-threshold aggregate income screen, the median-price jump is a cross-universe contrast; inventory and sale-to-list evidence also challenge a uniformly tight resale reading. Nothing here establishes rental demand or turns the rent-to-price screen into property economics.
Source boundaries are more important than any apparent alignment of levels. ACS describes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey and includes selected utilities; ZORI summarizes current asking rents across a blend of rental types; HUD FMR/SAFMR serves an administrative bedroom-standard purpose. City, county, and metro figures remain wider context, and Redfin remains a direct ZIP resale series. Distinct timing, property mixes, and measurement designs mean agreement cannot validate any one unit. The historical path can contextualize the current index, but it cannot determine whether a listed home’s asking rent, utility package, bedroom count, or availability resembles the aggregate. The evidence supports comparisons, not causal explanations.
Property-level application requires records that this packet does not supply: the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, included utilities, concessions, lease term, and availability for a rental; or the property type, condition, list history, sale date, and transaction terms for a sale. It also requires preserving the ZCTA–delivery-ZIP distinction and reviewing ACS survey uncertainty rather than treating a median as a precise unit quote. Whether a HUD standard is relevant to an administrative program is separate from its numerical comparison with an asking rent. Those checks could show that an offering differs sharply from every aggregate series. Which statistic, if any, most closely matches the specific unit and transaction under review?
","findings":[{"body":"Current Zillow ZORI shows almost no same-month annual movement, while the direct Redfin resale median shows an exceptional annual increase. The annualized-rent-to-sold-price calculation is useful only to flag the split between source series. Because Zillow captures blended asking rent and Redfin captures sales, the figures cannot be combined into a valuation, yield, or return conclusion.","title":"Rent and resale readings diverge"},{"body":"The income screen compares a current asking-rent index with matched-ZCTA median household income and falls below the stated threshold. ACS nevertheless reports a substantial share of occupied renter households with burden at or above that threshold. This is not a contradiction: the screen is arithmetic across different summary measures, whereas burden is a survey outcome for occupied homes.","title":"Affordability arithmetic differs from reported burden"},{"body":"The historical record has complete supplied coverage, yet its nearly flat latest same-month reading breaks from positive longer annualized changes. Historical variability and maximum drawdown both limit confidence in a single current index reading. The discovery ranks classify past relative patterns among eligible ZIPs and do not indicate future rental performance.","title":"The cooling signal breaks from the longer path"},{"body":"The direct ZIP resale block couples a large annual median-price change with more inventory, several months of supply, and an average sale-to-list result below list. These are for-sale observations only. They temper a simple tight-market interpretation of the resale price statistic but cannot establish lease-up conditions, rental demand, or a unit’s economics.","title":"Resale liquidity is mixed"}],"risks":["Comparing ZORI with ACS gross rent can overstate or misread change because one is a current blended asking-rent index and the other is a multi-year occupied-home survey that includes selected utilities.","Aggregate ZCTA vacancy, renter share, and burden statistics do not identify whether any particular building or unit is vacant, affordable, offered with concessions, or occupied by a household with a given income.","The historical cooling label and discovery ranks are backward-looking. A complete past series, its variability, and its drawdown do not forecast future rent changes or determine the reliability of an individual listing.","The Redfin sold-price and marketing measures are direct ZIP resale evidence, not rental comparables. Dividing annualized ZORI by the sold-price median omits transaction characteristics and all property-specific economics."],"qa":[{"a":"No. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The bedroom series scales that index with the local HUD ladder, making every bedroom figure a modelled estimate. Even where a model aligns with the index, it is neither a signed-lease sample nor a measured inventory of advertised units.","q":"Is the current Zillow figure a measured two-bedroom rent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey median for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI summarizes current asking rents. The matched ZCTA supports geographic comparison but is a statistical area rather than a USPS delivery ZIP. The difference therefore identifies a source-universe gap, not a direct before-and-after rent change.","q":"Why is the ACS rent figure lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"The current same-month history measure is almost flat, unlike the positive longer annualized path. Historical variability shows that monthly changes have not been perfectly smooth, and maximum drawdown documents an earlier retreat from a peak. Together, those measurements support cautious interpretation of a single current index reading without supplying a forecast.","q":"What does the history say about confidence in the current rent snapshot?"},{"a":"The Redfin block remains a separate for-sale lens. Its direct rolling resale series provides price, supply, marketing-time, and sale-to-list information for ZIP transactions, while ZORI provides rental asking-rent information. Their contrast is useful for screening a tension, but it cannot demonstrate rental transaction economics or a prospective property return.","q":"How should the resale data affect a rental reading?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR 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rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":2207.044335},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":2214.299586},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":2232.529543},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":2216.530907},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":2235.581439},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":2218.909336},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":2245.297048},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":2247.989175},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":2275.452156},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":2280.220819},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":2269.979461},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":2242.728017},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":2263.495274},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":2271.780664},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":2280.442757},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":2252.010513},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":2261.176294},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":2266.665207},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":2268.732024},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":2262.012596},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":2243.320661},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":2268.112799},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":2294.757137},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":2333.800469},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":2318.221505},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":2309.147298},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":2299.682353},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":2307.700776},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":2284.154195},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":2282.362648},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":2290.37292},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":2321.601426},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":2337.100341},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":2318.116956},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":2296.077098},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":2272.526359},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":2273.358041},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":2283.507193},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":2298.299643},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":2312.970105},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":2317.454261},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":2336.068524},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":2341.373031},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":2349.880966},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":2356.139578},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":2368.60026},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":2372.678656},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":2351.072807},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":2359.675686},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":2361.647848},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":2360.436282},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":2360.124787},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":2374.996322},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":2371.50246},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":2373.936834},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":2366.37817},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":2370.995771},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":2380.37251},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":2399.066784},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":2437.563181},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":2438.351627},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":2444.325562},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":2392.255702},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":2341.95239},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":2298.864064},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":2281.319231},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":2270.103965},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":2262.72585},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":2216.232875},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":2202.99747},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":2202.886908},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":2221.218547},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":2229.496673},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":2214.478694},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":2243.252423},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":2287.348071},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":2335.398532},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":2363.941058},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":2375.642958},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":2411.267939},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":2452.390186},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":2487.28159},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":2498.938766},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":2503.901427},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":2512.429238},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":2523.472583},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":2525.635789},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":2535.432908},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":2563.92877},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":2597.287993},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":2608.965343},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":2583.440825},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":2572.255657},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":2554.24918},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":2558.157312},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":2545.312408},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":2562.149758},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":2588.720209},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":2627.418585},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":2640.903332},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":2645.39802},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":2635.76689},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":2651.725195},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":2664.087003},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":2685.540432},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":2683.535547},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":2687.068548},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":2692.79273},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":2702.074295},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":2704.479508},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":2710.657964},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":2725.516385},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":2746.316598},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2759.183213},{"period":"2024-09-0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