ZIP 22407 presents a cross-market tension in June 2026: Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, was $2,162, up 4.11% from a year earlier, while Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation showed a $461,396 median sold price, 1.83% below its year-earlier level. The five-digit label 22407 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the resale median is 5.62%, a cross-source screening ratio only—not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. This is a contrast between asking-rent and for-sale evidence, not rental transactions.
The resale side gives the price decline important liquidity context without resolving it. In that same direct ZIP for-sale window, 246 homes sold and marketing time was 34 days. Inventory stood at 213 homes, 14.45% higher than a year earlier, with 2.6 months of supply. The average sale-to-list result was 99.96%, and 34.34% of sales closed above list. Those signals show transactions and pricing behavior in the resale universe only; they neither measure rental demand nor establish an economic result for a rental property. Rising inventory alongside a lower median price challenges a simple continuation reading of the rent index, whereas the short marketing time and near-list closings qualify that challenge. It is descriptive, not a forecast.
Looking backward, same-month ZORI changes remained positive, but their pace eased: the one-year annualized change was 4.11%, versus 5.62% over three years and 6.16% over five years through the stated June endpoint. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward direction but breaks from its faster longer-run rate. The history has 98.44% coverage. Its annualized monthly-return variability of 3.57% makes a single current rent snapshot less definitive, especially for a ZIP classified as high variability. Separately, the historical maximum drawdown was 3.09%, documenting the largest past retreat rather than a projected loss. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 417 for momentum, 2,307 for stability, and 1,014 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not investment recommendations.
Source definitions matter more than the numerical gap alone. The matched Census ZCTA ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,801, with a $43 90% margin of error, for occupied renter homes; gross rent includes selected utilities. That survey measure is not a current asking-rent quote, and the current Zillow index is 20.04% higher. The supplied local HUD FY2026 FMR/SAFMR ladder is instead an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. It should not be substituted for Zillow ZORI or ACS gross rent. Read the three measures as differently constructed records with different resident and timing coverage, rather than as competing observations of one identical apartment rent.
To provide a bedroom-oriented screen, the ZIP ZORI is scaled by that local HUD ladder, producing modelled monthly estimates rather than measured bedroom rents. The resulting sequence is $1,877 for a studio, $1,943 for one bedroom, $2,162 for two bedrooms, $2,733 for three bedrooms, and $3,205 for four bedrooms. These figures preserve the local HUD bedroom step pattern around the ZIP-wide index; they are not observed asking-rent medians, completed leases, or direct comparable-rent evidence. The two-bedroom estimate happens to equal the ZIP-wide ZORI because that category is the model anchor, not because the index observes a typical two-bedroom lease. Bedroom count, included utilities, condition, and lease terms can make a specific listing diverge from this screen.
Affordability arithmetic points to another distinction. Paying $2,162 monthly at a 30% rent-to-income screen corresponds to required annual income of $86,480. That is below the ZCTA’s ACS median household income of $111,129, and the same mechanical rent-to-income comparison is 23.35%. Neither calculation is advice nor an applicant qualification rule, and a ZIP-wide household-income median is not a household budget. In the ACS renter-household survey universe, 48.7% paid 30% or more of income toward gross rent. That burden statistic includes the survey’s gross-rent definition and cannot prove that any particular unit is affordable or that a given renter would be burdened.
Housing composition supplies useful but limited context. The ZCTA had 23,922 housing units, a 3.96% vacancy rate, and a 23.4% renter share in the ACS period; its stock was predominantly single-family, with a comparatively smaller large-multifamily component. Vacancy is an area-level count-based condition, not evidence that a specific home is available, nor proof about concession or rent setting. For wider rent context, the City of Fredericksburg (city scope) was $2,079.20, Spotsylvania County (county scope) was $2,120, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro (metro scope) was $2,448. Thus the ZIP index sits above the named city and county contexts but below the named metro context; none is a ZIP rent comp.
The decision limit is the mismatch in timing and universe: ZORI is a ZIP-wide asking-rent index, ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied renter homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin tracks direct ZIP resales. High historical variability further reduces the confidence warranted by one current rent snapshot, while the resale price-and-inventory tension prevents reading recent rent growth as a uniform market signal. A property-level review should verify the advertised rent and bedroom count, utilities included, lease term, physical condition, current availability, and genuinely comparable active listings; if evaluating a sale, separately check transaction status and comparable completed sales. These checks keep modelled estimates, survey measures, and resale indicators from being mistaken for a quote, a qualification, or property-specific economics. Does the specific property’s advertised rent, utility package, bedroom classification, and sale status actually match the evidence universe being used?
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI reached $2,162 in June 2026 after a 4.11% annual increase. In contrast, Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP resale median was $461,396, down 1.83% year over year. The contrast is decision-relevant because it pairs two current, direct ZIP series, but they track different markets. It does not establish a rent-price causal relationship or property-level return.","title":"Rent strength and resale softness are in tension"},{"body":"Same-month rent growth remained positive over the one-, three-, and five-year windows, but the newest annual pace was below the longer-window rates. High annualized monthly-return variability means a single current index level deserves less confidence than a stable series would. The drawdown and discovery ranks describe past behavior and relative screening placement among history-eligible ZIPs; they offer no forecast of the next rent movement.","title":"Growth persists, but the pace has cooled"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI, ACS median gross rent, and HUD FMR/SAFMR answer different questions. ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index; ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities; HUD is an administrative bedroom standard. Scaling ZORI by the HUD ladder creates useful modelled bedroom estimates, but it does not convert them into measured rents, leases, or unit-specific comps.","title":"The rent measures answer different questions"},{"body":"The required-income result is only a 30% arithmetic screen against ZIP-wide income, while the ACS burden measure reports occupied renter households under a gross-rent definition. The ZCTA’s ownership-heavy, predominantly single-family stock and area vacancy rate help frame supply composition, but neither a burden percentage nor a vacancy count proves affordability, availability, concessions, or conditions for a specific rental.","title":"Area affordability indicators are not unit findings"}],"risks":["The principal comparability risk is that a current asking-rent index, an ACS multi-year gross-rent survey, and a HUD administrative standard differ in timing, population, utilities, and purpose; their gaps cannot be treated as one market spread.","High historical variability and the observed drawdown make a current ZORI figure an imperfect single-point signal. Past rent changes and discovery ranks are descriptive only, so they cannot support a forecast, expected return, or investment conclusion.","Redfin’s figures reflect direct ZIP resale transactions during a rolling three-month window, not leases. A falling resale median with expanding inventory may challenge rent momentum, but it does not determine rent setting or sale outcomes for any property.","ACS vacancy, renter burden, and housing-stock results are area-level survey measures with uncertainty. They cannot prove that an individual unit is vacant, affordable, available at a listed rent, comparable in condition, or subject to any specific utility obligation."],"qa":[{"a":"No. In this report, 22407 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA label. A ZCTA is a Census statistical area designed for tabulation, while a USPS delivery ZIP is a postal routing construct. The overlap allows the supplied series to be paired, but it does not make their geographic definitions identical.","q":"Is ZIP 22407 the same thing as a USPS ZIP Code?"},{"a":"The $2,162 Zillow figure is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, while HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Because populations, timing, and definitions differ, the measures should be interpreted side by side rather than substituted for one another.","q":"Why can’t Zillow, ACS, and HUD rent figures be used interchangeably?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly estimates created by scaling ZIP-wide ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder. They show a standardized bedroom pattern around the index, not measured asking-rent medians, signed leases, or transactions. A particular unit may differ based on its bedroom classification, utilities, lease structure, condition, and current advertised terms.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed market rents?"},{"a":"It is annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price, so it is a cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, property yield, net return, expected return, or estimate of operating economics. Property-level rents, expenses, and comparable sales would still need separate verification before applying the screen to a specific property.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screen say?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1531.149542},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1564.34121},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1578.978712},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1603.328572},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1624.523735},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1677.078923},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1709.88329},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1693.142202},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1690.439486},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1698.370555},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1740.380516},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1768.431848},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1795.708586},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1805.723838},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1821.709621},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1825.425092},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1810.433994},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1790.641091},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1769.076722},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1771.926062},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1809.47854},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1846.418304},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1834.00915},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1811.10756},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1791.60664},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1825.940716},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1835.419987},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1860.163322},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1842.920583},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1880.787352},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1886.12371},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1923.648736},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1931.828237},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1936.597582},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1945.745888},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1937.577734},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1954.462865},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1952.614321},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1980.138182},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1993.890977},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":2011.879381},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":2022.411483},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":2029.033026},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":2035.336408},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":2023.545754},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":2028.919293},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":2043.659818},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":2094.125396},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":2105.551383},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":2099.706316},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":2076.976414},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":2072.71803},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":2089.631152},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":2085.955257},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":2102.698136},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":2098.831438},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":2116.14354},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":2121.652481},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":2127.327515},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":2116.429302},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":2122.924967},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":2140.651928},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":2162.291667}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":63,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":0.984375,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":2076.976414,"endRent":2162.291667,"change":0.04107665952532091,"cagr":0.04107665952532091},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1835.419987,"endRent":2162.291667,"change":0.1780909450235817,"cagr":0.05615162759963299},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1603.328572,"endRent":2162.291667,"change":0.34862666627511474,"cagr":0.06164262839438717}},"maxDrawdown":-0.03086862903712073,"annualizedVolatility":0.035744934847505815,"consecutiveReturnCount":61}}