At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI for 23225 is $1,541. ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it describes a market index rather than the contract rent of any one home. The five-digit label 23225 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a match to a Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The latest exact same-month change is a 1.21% rise over one year, against annualized gains of 4.08% over three years and 5.26% over five years. Thus, the cooling signal breaks from the faster longer path in rate while remaining positive in the latest comparison. This is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast of the next asking rent.
The history is complete enough to make the slowdown worth noticing, but not to turn the current reading into a fixed value. Direct Zillow ZIP ZORI observations have 100% coverage through the stated endpoint. Annualized monthly-return variability is 2.86%, and the maximum historical drawdown is −5.49%. Those measures show that the series has moved in both directions despite its positive longer-period change, so one current rent snapshot deserves more confidence as a documented index point than as a precise quote for every available unit. The transparent national discovery ranks are 1,257 for momentum, 1,367 for stability, and 1,252 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks higher. These are relative historical discovery positions among history-eligible ZIPs, not forecasts, quality grades, or investment recommendations.
Cross-source comparisons require strict separation. The matched Census ZCTA’s 2024 five-year ACS median gross rent is $1,372, making the current Zillow asking-rent index 12.3% higher. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and its gross-rent measure includes selected utilities, so it is neither a current listing sample nor a direct substitute for ZORI. The supplied local HUD FMR/SAFMR two-bedroom standard is $1,655, with the ZIP index 6.9% below it; HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. For wider context, the City of Richmond context rent figure is $1,681.69, the county context labelled Richmond City is $1,677, and the Richmond, VA metro context rent figure is $1,772; all are broader-context comparators, not replacements for the ZIP measure.
The bedroom pattern is a modelling exercise, not a set of observed listings. Scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder produces modelled estimates of $1,343 for a studio, $1,403 for one bedroom, $1,541 for two bedrooms, $1,929 for three bedrooms, and $2,377 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Each estimate inherits the overall ZIP asking-rent index and the relative spacing of the HUD bedroom ladder, which creates a coherent comparison framework but does not establish what any particular property is advertising. A reader should therefore treat the ladder as a way to organize size-related expectations within this data packet, not as evidence that an available unit can be rented at the displayed amount.
An arithmetic 30% required-income screen converts the current asking-rent index into $61,640 of annual income. That screen is not advice and is not an applicant qualification rule. The ACS median household-income estimate is $62,949, with a $5,063 ACS 90% margin of error, but a geographic household median cannot determine an individual renter’s income or approval outcome. ACS also reports that 4,881 of 10,141 renter households, or 48.1%, paid 30% or more of income toward rent. This burden measure describes surveyed renter households in aggregate; it does not prove that a particular unit is affordable, that its lease terms create burden, or that any applicant would face the same result.
Housing-stock data add a separate inventory lens. The matched ACS ZCTA reports 21,276 housing units and an overall vacancy rate of 8.8%. Renters account for 52.2% of occupied households. Among the reported structure categories, there are 11,057 single-family units and 3,062 units in large multifamily structures. These counts describe the composition of the survey-area housing stock rather than the type, condition, or price of a currently advertised home. Likewise, the overall vacancy figure is a stock-wide survey measure, not proof that a specific apartment or house is currently available for lease. It should not be used to infer concessions, competition, or vacancy at a particular property.
The practical limit of this report is that each source answers a different geographic and market question: ZORI tracks blended asking-rent observations, ACS describes occupied renter homes over a five-year survey period, and HUD supplies an administrative ladder. Before applying any comparison to a property, verify the advertised monthly rent, actual bedroom count, included utilities, mandatory charges, available date, and lease terms. Confirm the address relationship to the stated ZIP identifier and the matched ZCTA, and determine whether the supplied HUD ladder is ZIP SAFMR or county-derived. The key question for a specific unit is whether its current quoted terms resemble the observed ZIP asking-rent index, the historical occupied-home survey measure, or only the modelled bedroom ladder.
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s June 2026 ZIP index is $1,541, up 1.21% year over year. Exact same-month annualized growth was 4.08% across three years and 5.26% across five years. The latest direction remains positive but no longer matches the pace of the longer historical intervals, supporting a cooling classification without implying a future decline.","title":"Cooling is visible in the growth-rate comparison"},{"body":"The $1,372 ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. It is 12.3% below current ZORI, which is an asking-rent index. The $1,655 HUD two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is instead an administrative standard. These values are useful side by side, but they are not interchangeable rent observations.","title":"The rent gap depends on source universe"},{"body":"The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates created by scaling ZIP ZORI to the local HUD ladder. They range from $1,343 to $2,377 and retain $1,541 as the two-bedroom estimate. They are not measured bedroom rents, listing medians, or evidence of current availability at a particular property.","title":"Bedroom figures are HUD-scaled model outputs"},{"body":"A mechanical 30% screen yields $61,640 in required annual income, close to the ACS median household-income estimate of $62,949. Yet 48.1% of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at 30% or more of income. The figures provide geographic context only and do not determine affordability, qualification, or burden for a particular renter or unit.","title":"Aggregate affordability signals are mixed"}],"risks":["The 23225 Zillow market identifier is matched to a Census ZCTA, but the ZCTA is a statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP, making address-level interpretation uncertain.","ZORI summarizes blended asking-rent observations, while the bedroom figures are HUD-scaled modelled estimates; neither substitutes for the actual unit’s advertised terms, condition, available date, utilities, or charges.","ACS medians, margins, and burden counts are five-year survey aggregates of households. They cannot establish an applicant’s income, a unit’s eligibility, or the rent burden of a particular future tenancy.","Overall vacancy describes the ZCTA housing stock at the survey level, and historical volatility and drawdown describe prior index movement. Neither proves current availability or forecasts the next rent reading."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 $1,541 reading is ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is not a signed lease, a guarantee of current availability, or a measured rent for a specific bedroom count. It should be compared with an actual property quote only after checking the unit’s details and terms.","q":"What does the current Zillow figure represent?"},{"a":"The $1,372 ACS median gross rent comes from the matched ZCTA’s 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current ZIP-level asking-rent index. The HUD $1,655 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard. They answer different questions and should not be merged into one rent series.","q":"Why does ACS median gross rent differ from Zillow ZORI?"},{"a":"Each displayed bedroom figure is a modelled estimate produced by scaling ZIP ZORI using the local HUD ladder. The values preserve relative bedroom spacing from the administrative standard, but they are not independently measured market rents. A studio, one-bedroom, or larger unit may have a different advertised price because the model does not observe that individual property.","q":"How should the bedroom estimates be interpreted?"},{"a":"No. The $61,640 figure is a mechanical annual-income screen created from the current index at 30% of income. The ACS household-income median and the 48.1% burden share provide aggregate context, but neither is an applicant test. A specific assessment still requires the property’s quoted rent, utilities, charges, lease terms, bedroom configuration, and actual availability.","q":"Does the 30% income screen determine whether someone qualifies or can afford a unit?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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