The decision question in 23464 is whether the current ZIP asking-rent signal sits in a materially different position from survey-reported occupied-home costs and broad household capacity, while not mistaking either for a listing quote. In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level ZORI is $1,991 per month, after a 4.15% year-over-year increase. This five-digit label serves both as a Zillow ZIP market identifier and as the matched Census ZCTA. A ZCTA is a statistical area used for tabulation; it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The analysis therefore keeps the ZIP rent signal distinct from the ZCTA survey evidence and does not convert either into a statement about an individual property.
Capacity and burden provide a different decision lens. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $92,468, with a published margin of error of ±$4,938. Applying a 30% rent-to-income arithmetic screen to the monthly ZORI produces an annual required-income figure of $79,640; ZORI equals 25.84% of reported median household income. This is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. Renters occupy 8,755 of 28,455 occupied homes, or 30.77%. Among the reported renter-household burden universe, 4,381 households, or 50.04%, pay at least 30% of income toward gross rent. That observed ACS burden cannot establish affordability, income, or burden for a particular household or unit.
Zillow’s measure is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is distinct from ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent of $1,702, which represents occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The $289 gap, or 16.98%, is a comparison across different populations, timing, and rent concepts; it does not show that currently advertised units routinely include or exclude the same utilities, nor that existing tenants face the ZORI. HUD FY2026 Fair Market Rent is a separate administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Its local two-bedroom FMR is $1,990; ZIP ZORI is 100.05% of that standard, a useful calibration only and not evidence that either measure is a negotiated rent.
Bedroom orientation is available only through modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling the ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD ladder yields a studio estimate of $1,731, then $1,761 for one bedroom, $1,991 for two bedrooms, $2,761 for three bedrooms, and $3,252 for four bedrooms. The $1,521 spread from studio to four bedrooms reflects the ladder’s relative bedroom steps. It should not be read as an observed distribution of ZIP listings, a median rent for any bedroom size, or a prediction of what a particular building will charge. The model carries the blended ZORI’s rental-type mix into a HUD-shaped allocation, so bedroom-specific utility treatment, quality, lease terms, and available inventory remain unobserved.
The ZCTA housing base gives composition, not live listing availability. Of 29,305 housing units, 28,455 are occupied and 850 are vacant, a 2.90% vacancy rate. The supplied vacant categories identify 259 units for rent, 67 for sale, and 12 seasonal use; their presence does not show which addresses are available, at what price, or under what terms. Stock is concentrated in 23,670 single-family units, while 1,826 units are in large multifamily structures. Those counts frame the mix represented in the statistical area, but no tenure, structure, or vacancy category proves conditions at a selected property. In particular, vacancy cannot demonstrate a concession, condition, bedroom count, or immediate move-in status.
Broader comparisons are context only and should not replace ZIP or ZCTA evidence. At the Virginia Beach city scope, rent context is $2,064.81, renter share is 34.85%, and vacancy is 5.98%. At the county scope named Virginia Beach City, rent context is $2,065 and the two-bedroom HUD FMR is $1,713. At the Virginia Beach–Norfolk–Newport News, VA–NC metro scope, rent context is $1,878 and apartment vacancy is 4.14%. City, county, and metro values span wider geographies and may use their own stated measures; they neither redefine the ZIP ZORI nor substitute for ZCTA household, vacancy, or burden estimates.
Several limits govern interpretation: ZORI is an index rather than a property quote, ACS is a multi-year survey of occupied households, and HUD FMR is an administrative standard. The periods, geographies, utility treatment, and rental populations differ, and the supplied margins of error belong to ACS fields rather than to ZORI or HUD standards. For a property-level check, verify the exact address and geography, current advertised rent, bedroom count, included and excluded utilities, recurring and one-time fees, lease duration, availability date, concessions, and occupancy restrictions. Also confirm whether the relevant HUD ladder is ZIP SAFMR or county-derived, then keep any unit comparison separate from the market-level vacancy and burden statistics. These checks test the actual offer rather than extending an index or survey statistic beyond its scope.
","findings":[{"body":"ZIP ZORI provides the current market-facing rent signal, while ACS describes occupied renter homes and HUD provides an administrative standard. The contrast between the first two is meaningful for framing the decision question, but it cannot be converted into a listing-level premium, a tenant rent change, or a utility-adjusted comparison.","title":"Separate rent universes"},{"body":"The bedroom series is useful for sizing the difference imposed by the local HUD ladder, but every figure is a modelled ZIP estimate generated by scaling ZORI. It does not supply observed studio or larger-unit asking rents, and it does not capture unit condition, utilities, lease structure, or the distribution of active listings.","title":"Bedroom signals are modelled"},{"body":"The household-income arithmetic creates a useful benchmark: the annual income associated with the ZORI under the stated share-of-income screen is below the reported ZCTA median. Yet the ACS burden result shows that half of renter households in its universe meet or exceed the gross-rent burden threshold. The two statements answer different questions and should remain separate.","title":"Capacity arithmetic and observed burden"},{"body":"Vacancy and stock data describe the ZCTA’s housing inventory composition rather than a real-time search result. The supplied categories show some vacant homes identified for rent, sale, or seasonal use, while the structure totals show a predominantly single-family base. Neither pattern confirms price, condition, concessions, or availability for a specific address.","title":"Vacancy is composition, not availability"}],"risks":["The shared label between the Zillow ZIP market and Census ZCTA can mask boundary differences. A property’s USPS delivery ZIP, tabulation area, and rental-market assignment may not align, limiting address-level interpretation.","ZORI, ACS gross rent, and HUD FMR use different populations, definitions, timing, and utility treatment. Comparing them provides context, but a difference among them is not proof of pricing, affordability, or lease terms for any unit.","The bedroom amounts are a mechanical allocation of ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder. They can be distorted for a specific property when its quality, structure type, utility package, or available bedroom mix differs from the blended index.","Reported vacancy and rent burden are area-level statistical measures, with ACS uncertainty on relevant fields. They cannot establish that a vacant unit is rentable, that a renter qualifies, or that a selected household experiences the area-average burden."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is an asking-rent index drawn from observed rental market information and blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a survey statistic for occupied renter homes, includes selected utilities, and covers a multi-year period. Different timing, populations, and treatment of utilities prevent a direct substitution.","q":"Why is the current ZIP rent not interchangeable with median gross rent?"},{"a":"They are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the supplied local HUD bedroom ladder. Their role is to show relative bedroom sizing under that method. They are not measured asking rents, signed leases, listing medians, or evidence about the bedroom price at an individual property.","q":"What exactly do the bedroom estimates represent?"},{"a":"The required-income calculation divides the annualized ZORI by the stated rent share, so it is an arithmetic comparison rather than advice or a qualification rule. The burden statistic is an ACS observation for renter households paying at least that share toward gross rent. It cannot identify any particular household’s financial position.","q":"How should the required-income screen and burden statistic be read together?"},{"a":"No. The vacancy figures classify housing units in the ZCTA survey inventory and include the supplied uses among the reported detail. They do not identify a unit address, current advertised price, lease start date, condition, concessions, or whether a property remains available at the time of inquiry.","q":"Can vacancy figures establish what is available today?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2015-01-01","rent":1160.977421},{"period":"2015-02-01","rent":1158.999695},{"period":"2015-03-01","rent":1154.94045},{"period":"2015-04-01","rent":1153.963338},{"period":"2015-05-01","rent":1157.591566},{"period":"2015-06-01","rent":1161.466346},{"period":"2015-07-01","rent":1167.111816},{"period":"2015-08-01","rent":1168.167121},{"period":"2015-09-01","rent":1166.476688},{"period":"2015-10-01","rent":1165.988119},{"period":"2015-11-01","rent":1169.579374},{"period":"2015-12-01","rent":1166.473828},{"period":"2016-01-01","rent":1163.825118},{"period":"2016-02-01","rent":1164.748702},{"period":"2016-03-01","rent":1177.310636},{"period":"2016-04-01","rent":1182.393841},{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":1182.121239},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":1178.46296},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":1176.570293},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":1177.060776},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":1179.398029},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":1180.727497},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":1175.7192},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":1184.92567},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":1189.034753},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":1197.921817},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":1193.861417},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":1194.371205},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":1195.736488},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":1202.899981},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":1207.2472},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":1208.125226},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":1213.968107},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":1219.153147},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":1224.688788},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":1215.4364},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":1214.894145},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":1211.770668},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":1218.013406},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":1218.686401},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":1223.092124},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":1223.219265},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":1230.184314},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":1238.521919},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":1240.253923},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":1240.48309},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":1238.418578},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":1254.006049},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":1254.149858},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":1259.316796},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":1260.443313},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":1265.213508},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":1267.680707},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":1271.381921},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":1270.821678},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":1270.668442},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":1272.98435},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":1276.967677},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":1283.757432},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":1281.257056},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":1287.530301},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":1290.028892},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":1302.50806},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":1302.399758},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":1301.630221},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":1310.67332},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":1313.986171},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":1327.968426},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":1342.029022},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1356.383756},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1355.860031},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1359.671293},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1359.879897},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1369.475044},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1380.430867},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1398.286469},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1420.013846},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1431.867089},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1458.758226},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1466.148523},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1494.350261},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1508.207984},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1527.878891},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1540.471868},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1549.894546},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1568.503018},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1583.963844},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1604.440021},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1616.85077},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1627.387678},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1629.519541},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1634.32713},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1620.448826},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1631.376211},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1649.110015},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1665.237409},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1686.340401},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1698.231577},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1708.189845},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1702.2557},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1702.151194},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1708.077855},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1702.886187},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1707.864962},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1727.454512},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1721.77047},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1720.574165},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1725.860629},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1743.775525},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1753.194723},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1776.655065},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1790.971478},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1794.908639},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1786.841979},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1814.237597},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1834.183249},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1837.745084},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1832.503137},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1847.381424},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1865.977886},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1864.961772},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1858.17543},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1854.569994},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1861.530981},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1887.800454},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1911.724588},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1913.816667},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1916.296828},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1926.900802},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1951.936293},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1956.632189},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1955.408099},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1961.863649},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1979.057244},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1986.790531},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1993.867663},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1989.324623},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1991.113889}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":138,"firstPeriod":"2015-01-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":138,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1911.724588,"endRent":1991.113889,"change":0.04152758273777035,"cagr":0.04152758273777035},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1708.077855,"endRent":1991.113889,"change":0.16570441047021234,"cagr":0.05243709351689407},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1431.867089,"endRent":1991.113889,"change":0.3905717257532413,"cagr":0.0681658248657333}},"maxDrawdown":-0.010548083828787358,"annualizedVolatility":0.018734291600270115,"consecutiveReturnCount":137}}