At $1,549 in June 2026, Zillow ZORI for 23602 provides the most current ZIP-level read, but it is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types rather than a quote for a specific home. It stands 2.5% above the $1,511 ACS median gross rent. That ACS figure comes from the 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so it has a different population, timing, and rent definition. The matched Census ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The narrow gap is informative context, not evidence that either measure replaces the other.
The historical pattern adds the principal tension: the exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 7.7% over one year, compared with 4.5% over three years and 4.9% over five years. Thus, recent direction confirms rather than breaks from the longer upward path, while clearly accelerating from its longer-run pace. Annualized monthly-return variability was 2.9%, and the largest historical peak-to-trough drawdown was 5.0%. The record reports 100% coverage from 138 observations and 137 consecutive monthly returns. Its transparent national discovery ranks are 206 for momentum, 1,490 for stability, and 326 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations: complete coverage supports confidence in the calculations, but the observed variability and drawdown limit confidence in a current rent snapshot.
Bedroom differentiation should not be read off the ZIP index as if it were a listing inventory. The FY2026 local HUD ladder scales that index into a modelled sequence, from studio through four bedrooms, of $1,352, $1,369, $1,549, $2,148, and $2,533. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The underlying local HUD two-bedroom FMR is $1,810, making the ZIP index 14.4% lower. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent, so neither the ladder nor the models establish the amount or availability of a comparably sized property.
Affordability data show a second distinction between arithmetic and household outcomes. Applying the 30% required-income screen to the current ZIP index produces $61,960 in annual income. This is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. In a simple annualized comparison with the matched ZCTA's $79,475 median household income, the index equals 23.4% of income; that broad household median is not the income of a renter or a prospective applicant. Separately, the ACS burden measure says 48.7% of renter households spend at least that threshold on gross rent, which includes selected utilities. Survey margins of error apply to ACS estimates, and neither the burden share nor the income screen proves affordability, cost, or eligibility for a particular household or unit.
The matched ZCTA's housing inventory contains 18,481 units, with a 4.4% all-housing vacancy rate. Of the surveyed vacant units, 501 are categorized as vacant for rent, a classification that does not demonstrate that a given property is currently available, priced at the index, or suitable for a particular renter. The stock includes 11,415 units in single-family structures and 1,472 units in large multifamily structures. These ACS housing-stock and vacancy measures describe the ZCTA's survey inventory, not real-time listing counts or a promise about any individual unit.
For wider context only, the Newport News city context rent is $1,587, the Newport News City county context rent is $1,587, and the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC metro context rent is $1,878. Each is broader context rather than a substitute for the direct ZIP ZORI. The ZIP reading is below each comparator, with the metro gap materially larger than the city or county gaps. City and county context also show higher renter shares and higher all-housing vacancy rates than the matched ZCTA; the metro's apartment vacancy is a separate apartment-only measure. Scope and construction differences mean these comparison values do not establish conditions at a particular ZIP property.
The remaining uncertainty is at property level. Before assigning the index, modelled ladder, ACS gross-rent comparison, or vacancy category to a listing, check the advertised base rent, exact bedroom count, utility inclusions, required fees, concessions, lease term, availability date, and whether the unit's location falls within the intended geography. Also identify which numbers are asking rents, gross-rent survey values, or administrative standards, and retain their distinct dates and scopes. These checks do not turn a burden or vacancy statistic into proof about the listing; they test the facts the aggregate sources cannot supply. Which property-level facts would make the quoted monthly obligation materially different from the ZIP-level reference?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow's June 2026 ZIP ZORI is $1,549, while the ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA median gross rent is $1,511. The 2.5% gap reflects different universes: ZORI summarizes observed asking rents across rental types, whereas ACS summarizes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is statistical geography, not the same thing as a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Asking index and survey rent are close but distinct"},{"body":"Same-month historical ZORI rose at a 7.7% annualized rate over one year, versus 4.5% over three years and 4.9% over five years. This acceleration stays on the prior upward direction rather than reversing it. The series has 100% reported coverage, 138 observations, and 137 consecutive returns; its discovery ranks distinguish momentum from weaker stability. These backward-looking metrics are not forecasts.","title":"Recent rent growth accelerated within an upward history"},{"body":"Bedroom amounts are modelled estimates constructed by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. They are not measured bedroom rents or proof of listing inventory. The sequence from studio through four bedrooms is $1,352, $1,369, $1,549, $2,148, and $2,533. HUD FMR/SAFMR remains an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than an observed asking-rent result.","title":"Bedroom amounts are HUD-scaled models"},{"body":"At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the ZIP index implies $61,960 annual income, a calculation rather than advice or an eligibility threshold. ACS separately estimates that 48.7% of renter households are burdened at or above that share of gross rent. The ZCTA's 4.4% all-housing vacancy rate and vacant-for-rent count describe survey inventory, not whether an individual unit is affordable, open, or suitable.","title":"Affordability and vacancy require unit-level verification"}],"risks":["Different rent universes create interpretation risk: Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index, ACS gross rent covers occupied renter homes with selected utilities, and HUD is an administrative standard.","The bedroom ladder is a mechanical model tied to HUD ratios. Its values may not match a listed home's bedroom count, condition, utilities, lease terms, or available date.","Vacant-for-rent survey classification and all-housing vacancy are aggregate measures, with no evidence about a particular unit's current availability, advertised rent, utility treatment, condition, or lease terms.","Historical acceleration, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks summarize the observed ZIP series through its endpoint. They do not establish a future rent path, investment outcome, or the stability of a particular listing."],"qa":[{"a":"The June 2026 value of $1,549 is Zillow's ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types. It is not a signed-lease average or a quote for one property. The ACS ZCTA median gross rent is $1,511 and includes selected utilities for occupied renter homes, so the readings should remain separately labeled.","q":"What does the current ZIP rent figure measure?"},{"a":"They were constructed by scaling the ZIP ZORI according to the local FY2026 HUD bedroom ladder. Therefore, $1,352 for a studio through $2,533 for four bedrooms are modelled estimates, not measured rents. The two-bedroom estimate equals the ZIP index by design, while HUD's $1,810 two-bedroom FMR is an administrative standard rather than an asking-rent result.","q":"How were the bedroom amounts generated?"},{"a":"The $61,960 figure simply divides the annualized ZIP index by the 30% screen; it is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. ACS reports a different outcome measure: 48.7% of renter households spent at least that share on gross rent. Neither statement identifies what any applicant earns, pays, or qualifies for.","q":"How should the income screen and burden figure be interpreted?"},{"a":"City, county, and metro rents help set wider context, but they do not replace direct ZIP ZORI. The ZCTA vacancy measure covers all housing, while the metro vacancy measure covers apartments. A property review still needs advertised base rent, bedroom configuration, utility treatment, fees, lease terms, availability date, and exact location.","q":"What can broader geography and vacancy tell a reader?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market 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