Current asking rent and for-sale pricing point in different directions in this ZIP. Zillow’s June 2026 ZORI is $1,529, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, and it is 3.5% above its year-earlier level. That is not a quoted rent for an identifiable home or a measure of lease executions. The central reading is therefore a current asking-rent signal that is rising, to be assessed alongside—not merged with—the ZIP’s direct resale evidence. It neither proves that every bedroom type is moving similarly nor supplies property costs, tenant characteristics, or a forecast. The contrast with resale pricing matters because rent and home-sale series measure separate markets.
The history reports exact same-month annualized ZORI changes of 3.5% over one year, 2.6% over three years, and 6.8% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the longer upward path, but the one- and three-year paces are cooler than the five-year pace. This backward-looking sequence contains 64 monthly observations and 100% coverage. Its annualized monthly-return variability is 3.7%, while maximum drawdown was -2.0%. Categorized as high variability, this record calls for less confidence in one current index snapshot than a smooth series would warrant; it is not a forecast or investment recommendation. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs are 993 for momentum, 2,440 for stability, and 1,765 for balanced, where lower ranks are higher.
Source labels matter before comparing rent figures. The five-digit label 24502 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and the matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area, not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey of occupied renter homes reports a $1,224 median gross rent, and gross rent includes selected utilities. ZORI stands 25.0% above that survey median, but asking rent and gross rent are not substitutes. HUD’s FY 2026 two-bedroom $1,187 FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; ZORI is 28.8% higher. No source converts either benchmark into a property-specific rent.
Bedroom detail comes from a calculation rather than observed bedroom submarkets. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by the local HUD bedroom ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,323 for a studio, $1,331 for one bedroom, $1,529 for two bedrooms, $2,106 for three bedrooms, and $2,254 for four bedrooms. These modelled estimates are not measured bedroom rents. The HUD ladder used for scaling is an administrative standard, so it does not demonstrate actual availability, a unit’s condition, included utilities, concessions, or the rent being asked for any listed home. Its value is a consistent sizing framework for interpreting the index, not a replacement for current unit-level evidence.
The arithmetic affordability screen is mixed. At the 30% screen, annualizing current ZORI requires $61,160 of income; this is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA median household income is $68,872, making the index equal to 26.6% of that annual median income before considering household composition or income distribution. Separately, ACS finds 42.7% of renter households at or above that gross-rent burden threshold. This burden measure covers occupied renter homes and selected utilities, not a particular prospective lease. It shows an aggregate affordability tension despite the median-income screen.
Housing stock supports caution when applying aggregate rates. The matched ZCTA contains 18,941 housing units, of which 2,193 are vacant, an 11.6% vacancy rate; it also has more single-family than large-multifamily units. The vacancy total spans categories rather than serving as an available-rental count, and a survey vacancy rate cannot prove that any specific unit is vacant or rentable. At wider scope, the city of Lynchburg asking-rent context is $1,325, the Lynchburg City county asking-rent context is $1,329, and the Lynchburg, VA metro asking-rent context is $1,345. These city, county, and metro values are context only, each broader than the ZIP index and not rental comparables for a given address.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation through June 30, 2026 is more liquid than the price change alone suggests. Its median sold price is $289,934, down 3.0% year over year, while 172 homes sold with a median 18 days on market. Inventory was 119 homes after a 34.1% increase and months of supply were 2.1. The average sale-to-list result was 99.3%, while 32.4% sold above list. These are for-sale-market outcomes, not rental transactions or property economics. In combination with increasing ZORI, the falling resale median and expanding inventory challenge a simple inference that positive rent history means uniformly strengthening market conditions.
One cross-source screen annualizes the ZIP ZORI and divides it by the Redfin median sold price, producing 6.3%. It is only a screening ratio, not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, because it joins an asking-rent index to a resale median and omits property-level expenses and terms. Survey estimates carry sampling uncertainty, historical statistics are backward-looking, and resale medians reflect sold homes rather than rental comps. Concrete property-level checks are the actual current bedroom-specific ask, utility inclusions, lease length, fees and concessions, documented availability, and condition relative to the sales record. Do the verified unit terms align with this aggregate evidence?
","findings":[{"body":"Zillow’s current ZIP ZORI is $1,529 and its same-month annual change is 3.5%, while Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation puts median sold price at $289,934, 3.0% lower year over year. Redfin still logs 172 homes sold and 2.1 months of supply. This is cross-market tension: asking-rent momentum is positive, but resale pricing and inventory evidence do not establish a uniform direction.","title":"Rent and resale indicators diverge"},{"body":"The ACS 2024 five-year median gross rent is $1,224 for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; it is not an asking-rent series. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom $1,187 FMR/SAFMR is a bedroom-specific administrative standard, not a market quote. The current ZORI exceeds each, but those gaps compare distinct universes. The matched ZCTA is statistical geography rather than a USPS delivery ZIP.","title":"Source labels change the rent comparison"},{"body":"Annualizing ZORI at the 30% screen produces $61,160 of required income, versus a matched-ZCTA median household income of $68,872. However, ACS reports 42.7% of renter households at or above the gross-rent burden threshold. The result is an aggregate contrast between a median-income arithmetic screen and observed burden, not advice, a lending test, or an applicant qualification rule.","title":"Affordability screen is not a tenant test"},{"body":"HUD-scaled modelled monthly estimates range from $1,323 for a studio to $2,254 for four bedrooms, with $1,529 at two bedrooms. They are derived from ZIP ZORI and the local HUD pattern, never measured bedroom rents. Unit-level analysis still needs actual current asking rents, utility responsibilities, lease concessions, availability, and condition. Neither ACS vacancy nor the model identifies the status or rent of a specific unit.","title":"Use the bedroom ladder as a model, not a comp set"}],"risks":["The ZIP-wide ZORI blends rental types into a typical observed asking-rent index, so it may not match a specific unit’s bedroom count, utility package, lease concession, condition, availability, or actual executed rent.","ACS figures are five-year survey estimates for occupied renter homes in a matched statistical ZCTA, carry sampling uncertainty, and do not share an identical boundary with a USPS delivery ZIP.","HUD FMR/SAFMR and the modelled bedroom ladder are administrative scaling tools rather than measured market rents, so they cannot demonstrate a particular unit’s current ask, vacancy status, or included utilities.","Redfin covers a direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale window rather than rental transactions; its median sold price and the ZORI-to-price screen omit financing, operating expenses, taxes, and property-level differences."],"qa":[{"a":"ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index that blends rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. A ZCTA is statistical rather than USPS delivery geography. Different populations, definitions, and periods mean the figures provide context but should not be equated.","q":"Why does the Zillow index differ from the ACS rent figure?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates generated by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard rather than an asking-rent observation. The model does not identify live listings, actual availability, utility inclusions, bedroom quality, concessions, or completed leases for comparable units.","q":"Are the bedroom values evidence of what comparable units are asking?"},{"a":"It annualizes the ZIP-wide current ZORI and divides by the stated threshold to create an arithmetic income figure. It is not financial advice, a tenant affordability finding, or an applicant qualification rule. The median household income comparison cannot substitute for the ACS burden rate because households and occupied renter homes have differing compositions, costs, and income distributions.","q":"What does the thirty-percent income screen establish?"},{"a":"They should remain separate evidence universes. History measures prior movement in the asking-rent index and includes high variability, while Redfin records sold-home and listing conditions in a rolling ZIP resale window. Positive rent movement alongside a lower resale median and larger inventory identifies tension, not causation, a valuation conclusion, or a forecast for either market.","q":"How should the rent history and Redfin resale evidence be combined?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1069.994892},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1090.418221},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1087.51026},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1103.089517},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1126.261002},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1145.2393},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1161.198448},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1194.195384},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1229.217024},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1246.288685},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1230.719897},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1224.645822},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1229.999536},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1248.973998},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1299.223542},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1313.404465},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1330.565478},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1337.139467},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1352.356216},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1354.88098},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1340.830519},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1384.482034},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1414.710012},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1434.833596},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1414.635432},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1417.9581},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1405.523553},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1417.271089},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1407.579925},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1419.401531},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1406.709993},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1414.954782},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1415.216735},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1413.88724},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1425.555683},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1445.880785},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1459.643752},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1450.52599},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1442.798971},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1442.099553},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1445.349543},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1440.632339},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1440.135075},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1442.154517},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1452.696027},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1457.110081},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1451.366829},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1447.175506},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1452.124495},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1470.303298},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1477.667077},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1477.657652},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1487.285687},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1494.180817},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1507.804165},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1510.650595},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1514.056876},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1511.147293},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1513.949054},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1513.206663},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1516.312408},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1514.849077},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1522.979153},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1529.359116}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":64,"firstPeriod":"2021-03-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":64,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1477.657652,"endRent":1529.359116,"change":0.034988797256267246,"cagr":0.034988797256267246},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1417.271089,"endRent":1529.359116,"change":0.07908721759016979,"cagr":0.025696442840225542},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1103.089517,"endRent":1529.359116,"change":0.38643246303282597,"cagr":0.06752915251768532}},"maxDrawdown":-0.020427485864360828,"annualizedVolatility":0.037211382293185324,"consecutiveReturnCount":63}}