In June 2026, Zillow’s ZIP-level Observed Rent Index (ZORI) for 27284 was $1,785 per month, up 2.64% from a year earlier. This is a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a market indicator rather than an advertised lease quote for a particular home. The five-digit label 27284 is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area; it is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The immediate tension is that asking rent edged higher even as the direct resale median price moved lower, making source boundaries central to interpreting one current rent snapshot.
The rent history supports a cooling, rather than reversal, reading. Exact same-month annualized ZORI changes were 2.64% over one year, 4.84% over three years, and 5.83% over five years. Thus, the recent direction remains positive but breaks from the faster longer-run path. The series has 100% stated coverage; annualized variability of monthly returns was 2.56%, while the maximum drawdown was -1.91%. Those backward-looking measurements do not forecast rents or support an investment conclusion. The transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 753 for momentum, 802 for stability, and 386 for the balanced measure, where lower rank is higher. The recorded variability and drawdown give more confidence in the broad index direction than in one current rent snapshot, but cannot establish a single property’s rent.
The ACS comparison points to a different evidence universe. In the ACS 2024 five-year survey for the matched ZCTA, median gross rent was $1,153 for occupied renter homes, including selected utilities. ZORI is 54.8% higher than that survey median, a gap that cannot be read as a discount because the survey median is not a current asking-rent measure. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom standard is $1,350, and ZORI is 32.2% above it; that HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent. The bedroom figures are modelled ZIP estimates created by scaling ZORI with that local HUD ladder: $1,454 for a studio, $1,573 for one bedroom, $1,785 for two, $2,327 for three, and $2,750 for four. They are not measured bedroom rents or unit-level comparables.
The 30% required-income screen is simple arithmetic: paying the current monthly index implies $71,400 of annual income at that threshold. Against the matched ZCTA’s ACS median household income of $82,461, annualized current index rent equals 25.98% of that area-level median income. This is not advice and not an applicant qualification rule; household earnings, unit rent, and included utilities can differ. The same ACS survey reports 2,668 of 6,561 renter households, or 40.7%, paying at least that threshold toward gross rent. Because this is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities, burden is context rather than proof that any particular available unit is affordable or burdensome.
The matched ZCTA had 25,921 housing units and a 5.8% vacancy rate. Its stock included 19,688 single-family units and 1,636 large-multifamily units, a composition measure rather than a count of currently rentable homes. Census counted vacancies in a survey frame; neither the aggregate rate nor vacancies designated for rent establish availability, condition, price, or vacancy at a particular unit. For wider context only, the citywide Kernersville rent context was about $1,797, Forsyth County’s countywide rent context was $1,579, and the Winston-Salem, NC metro rent context was $1,564. These are named city, county, and metro scopes, not substitutes for the ZIP ZORI, and their differences cannot resolve the ACS-versus-asking-rent gap.
Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation is a for-sale record, not rental transactions. Its median sold price was $339,918, down 2.63% year over year, with 278 homes sold and a median 39 days on market. Inventory was 243 homes and months of supply was 2.7. The average sale-to-list ratio was 98.92%; 16.68% of sales closed above list. These observations describe resale liquidity, pricing, and marketing at the ZIP level only. They do not turn ZORI into a property valuation, do not supply rental comparables, and do not identify a home’s operating costs or lease demand.
Annualizing the ZIP ZORI and dividing it by the Redfin median sold price produces a 6.30% cross-source screening ratio. It is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield, because neither source supplies expenses, financing, taxes, actual property rent, or matching between a rent observation and a sold home. The important tension challenges any simple rent-history or affordability screen: ZORI rose over the latest year while the resale median price fell. That can mechanically elevate this screen, yet it does not establish causation or improve the fit between a current asking index, a survey gross-rent median, and a resale price. The area-median-income arithmetic appears less strained than the historical renter-burden share, another reason not to collapse the sources into one affordability conclusion.
Key limits remain: ZORI is a blended ZIP index, ACS is a survey estimate with margins of error for a ZCTA, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin covers sales rather than leases. The modelled bedroom ladder inherits both the ZIP index and HUD scaling, so it cannot replace a measured bedroom rent. For a property-level review, check the actual advertised monthly rent, bedroom count, lease term, included and excluded utilities, fees, availability date, condition, and whether the address and unit type fit the relevant source geography. For a sale listing, separately verify the recorded price, list history, marketing time, and property characteristics instead of applying ZIP aggregates to it. Which source matches the decision being examined: an asking-rent benchmark, occupied-renter survey context, administrative standard, or direct resale observation?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow index increased 2.64% year over year, but its three-year and five-year annualized changes were 4.84% and 5.83%. That ordering supports the packet’s cooling label: rent growth remained positive but slowed relative to its longer record. Historical volatility and drawdown describe observed index behavior only; they are not forecasts or investment-performance measures.","title":"Rent growth has decelerated without reversing"},{"body":"ZORI describes current typical asking rent across rental types; ACS describes occupied renter homes and utility-inclusive gross rent; HUD supplies an administrative bedroom standard. The listed studio through four-bedroom amounts are modelled by applying the HUD ladder to the ZIP index. They should be read as scaled estimates, not as measured rents, advertised units, or bedroom-specific rental comparables.","title":"Three rent constructs answer different questions"},{"body":"The arithmetic screen puts the current index at 30% of income only at $71,400 annually, below the ZCTA median household income. Yet the ACS burden measure says 40.7% of surveyed renter households crossed that threshold. These findings can coexist because one is an area-median calculation using current asking rent and the other is a historical survey measure of occupied homes.","title":"Affordability signals diverge by evidence universe"},{"body":"The direct rolling-three-month Redfin record showed a lower median sale price year over year alongside 278 homes sold, 39 median days on market, and 2.7 months of supply. That resale evidence is not a rental comp set. In combination with rising ZORI, it challenges a simple reading of the rent-to-price screen and cannot establish property economics or future resale conditions.","title":"Resale evidence challenges a simple rent-to-price reading"}],"risks":["ZORI, ACS gross rent, HUD FMR/SAFMR, and Redfin resale data observe different populations, time frames, and purposes. Combining them without preserving those definitions can create a false appearance of precise property-level comparability.","The modelled bedroom amounts are scaled from a ZIP index using an administrative HUD ladder. They are not observed rents for available units and may not match actual unit configuration, utility treatment, fees, or lease terms.","Historical rent growth, variability, drawdown, and discovery ranks describe only completed observations. The slower recent change and the resale price decline do not establish a future trend, causation, investment result, or outcome for a particular property.","ZCTA survey estimates and vacancy totals are aggregate statistical measures, while USPS delivery ZIP boundaries and individual listings can differ. A vacancy rate or renter-burden share cannot demonstrate availability or affordability for a named unit."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes in the matched ZCTA, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. The numerical gap therefore is not a directly comparable discount, utility adjustment, or rent change.","q":"Why is the ACS median gross rent lower than ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates, obtained by scaling the ZIP ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR bedroom ladder. HUD’s ladder is a bedroom-specific administrative standard rather than an asking-rent observation, so these amounts are not measured rents, listings, or matched comparables for an available unit.","q":"Are the bedroom figures measured rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"The calculation divides annualized ZIP ZORI by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price and is useful only as a cross-source screening ratio. It does not include actual property rent, expenses, financing, taxes, or matching between a rental and a sale. It is therefore not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.","q":"What does the annualized rent-to-price screen tell me?"},{"a":"Verify the actual advertised rent, bedroom count, lease term, utility inclusions, fees, availability date, unit condition, and address geography. For a sale, separately inspect the recorded sale price, list history, marketing time, and property characteristics. These checks are necessary because ZIP indices, ZCTA surveys, HUD standards, and resale aggregates do not identify a particular unit.","q":"How should ZIP aggregates be checked against a property?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1258.771974},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1272.29799},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1267.067811},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1263.331229},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1268.473795},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1293.845666},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1324.053107},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1344.332948},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1358.608479},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1378.12208},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1385.444096},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1407.058463},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1416.932654},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1433.688003},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1434.532976},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1436.640841},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1438.804381},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1451.819403},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1472.051674},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1494.359853},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1503.145083},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1506.235195},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1519.154337},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1520.814456},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1535.959314},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1536.183246},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1558.865212},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1567.950129},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1579.200122},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1569.242262},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1558.326642},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1548.999374},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1566.075355},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1582.763826},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1610.849433},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1612.575959},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1602.251453},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1610.512917},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1625.129355},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1649.983624},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1669.25033},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1685.877151},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1705.026186},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1710.84192},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1709.655349},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1701.687828},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1680.181436},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1684.017252},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1702.722381},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1723.603576},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1718.401908},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1709.598502},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1716.084846},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1729.543311},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1738.706051},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1739.113336},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1746.556691},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1759.898934},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1775.25917},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1785.954818},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1787.493038},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1780.271988},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1785.093314},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1790.020053},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1785.153442},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1780.064378},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1776.600422},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1785.015789}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":68,"firstPeriod":"2020-11-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":68,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1739.113336,"endRent":1785.015789,"change":0.026394169977200566,"cagr":0.026394169977200566},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1548.999374,"endRent":1785.015789,"change":0.15236701767705174,"cagr":0.04840787206897734},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1344.332948,"endRent":1785.015789,"change":0.3278078110453335,"cagr":0.05834446739725174}},"maxDrawdown":-0.019124079069695044,"annualizedVolatility":0.02555888591222439,"consecutiveReturnCount":67}}