ZIP 27405’s latest Zillow ZORI was $1,454 in June 2026, a 4.1% year-over-year increase, placing the immediate asking-rent signal in modest upward motion. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types; it is neither a lease record nor a unit-specific quote. The City of Greensboro context rent was lower than the ZIP index, but that wider-city comparison cannot substitute for ZIP evidence. The five-digit market label also matches a Census ZCTA: a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. That geographic distinction matters when reading the non-Zillow household evidence.
The matched ZCTA’s ACS 2024 five-year survey reports median gross rent of $1,047, versus the current asking-rent index. ACS measures occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI tracks observed asking rents, so the gap is a source-universe difference rather than a contradiction. Median household income was $47,431. At a 30% rent-to-income screen, the current ZORI equates to required annual income of $58,160, or 36.8% of that median income. ACS also estimates that 6,132 renter households, or 57.4%, paid 30% or more of income toward rent. This screen is arithmetic, not advice or an applicant qualification rule, and burden data cannot prove affordability for a particular unit.
The local HUD bedroom ladder provides a different benchmark, not a competing asking-rent measure. HUD’s $1,260 standard for the bedroom tier aligned with the ZIP index is an administrative bedroom-specific FMR/SAFMR standard, not asking rent. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,269 for a studio, $1,327 for one bedroom, $1,454 for two bedrooms, $1,858 for three bedrooms, and $2,146 for four bedrooms. These are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The ZIP index is 15.4% above the aligned HUD standard, which identifies a meaningful distinction between the asking-rent index and the administrative benchmark without establishing a property’s rent or eligibility.
Housing composition adds context to that affordability tension. The ZCTA contained 22,409 housing units, with a 7.4% vacancy rate; 531 units were classified as vacant for rent. That count does not show how many available units resemble the ZORI rental mix, nor does it establish vacancy at any particular property. Renter households numbered 10,679 and represented 51.5% of occupied homes, while 14,671 units were single-family structures and 1,617 were in large multifamily buildings. The tenure split and stock mix show that the survey area contains both renter and owner households, but neither category converts the asking-rent index into a property-level comparable.
The historical ZORI record supports an upward long-run path but not an acceleration story. It has complete coverage across 122 observations, with exact same-month annualized changes of 4.1% over one year, 3.6% over three years, and 6.1% over five years. Recent direction therefore confirms the broader positive path, while the current pace remains below the longer five-year rate. Annualized monthly-return variability of 2.0% indicates that the index has moved within a relatively narrow historical band, which supports more confidence in the current ZIP snapshot than a highly erratic series would. Separately, the deepest historical peak-to-trough decline was 0.9%, a limited setback rather than proof against future movement. Transparent national discovery ranks were 131 for stability and 103 for the balanced score, where lower ranks are higher; these are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
Resale evidence introduces the key counterweight. Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP for-sale observation showed a $255,942 median sold price, down 1.2% year over year, alongside 139 homes sold and median marketing time of 61 days. Inventory stood at 172 homes, up 35.5%, and months of supply reached 3.8. Average sale-to-list was 98.4%, while 13.4% of sales closed above list. Those marketing-time, inventory, and sale-to-list signals describe resale liquidity and negotiation conditions, not rental transactions. They challenge a simple extension of the stable rent history: asking rents were rising while the reported resale price softened and selling conditions showed more choice. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is 6.8%, but it is only a cross-source screening ratio, not a cap rate, property yield, net return, or expected return.
Broader comparisons reinforce the need to keep scopes separate. The City of Greensboro context rent, Guilford County context rent, and Greensboro-High Point, NC metro context rent each sit below the ZIP ZORI, but all are wider-area context measures rather than ZIP asking-rent observations. The matched ZCTA’s ACS median gross rent is also below the city and county ACS context values, which is consistent with a different survey universe from ZORI. Its renter share and rent-burden prevalence exceed the city and county context shares, while metro apartment vacancy is a separate market measure from the ZCTA’s all-housing vacancy rate. These comparisons frame relative conditions; they do not describe a specific building, block, lease, or household.
The evidence has distinct timing, methods, and coverage: ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin tracks ZIP resale activity. Required property-level checks include the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, included utilities, concessions, lease term, occupancy status, and whether a unit is comparable to the HUD ladder. For a listed home, the relevant checks also include current list terms, condition, and closed-sale comparability rather than the rental screening ratio. The unresolved decision question is whether a specific property’s current rent and terms align with the modelled bedroom estimate and the household-income screen despite the softer resale signals.
","findings":[{"body":"The $1,454 Zillow ZORI exceeds the matched ZCTA’s $1,047 ACS median gross rent. This does not establish that rents changed by that difference because ZORI is a blended asking-rent index and ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities. The comparison nevertheless highlights a substantial current asking-versus-occupied-rent distinction.","title":"Asking rent is materially above the ACS gross-rent benchmark"},{"body":"Annual income of $58,160 is arithmetically required to hold the ZIP ZORI at 30% of income, above the ZCTA’s $47,431 median household income. ACS estimates 57.4% of renter households were rent burdened at 30% or more. Neither statistic qualifies or disqualifies any applicant, and neither proves affordability for an individual unit.","title":"Income and burden measures create the central rental tension"},{"body":"The historical ZORI series shows positive one-, three-, and five-year changes with limited variability and a small recorded drawdown. Redfin’s direct ZIP resale evidence, however, reported a declining median sold price, longer marketing time, higher inventory, and average sales below list. These are separate rental and resale universes, but together they complicate a single-direction reading.","title":"Historical rent stability contrasts with softer resale conditions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom estimates scale the ZIP-wide ZORI using the local HUD bedroom ladder. They offer a transparent size-adjusted reference, but they are not measured rents, advertised listings, lease transactions, or evidence of what any individual property can command. Actual unit size, utility treatment, concessions, lease structure, and condition remain unobserved in this model.","title":"Bedroom figures are modelled, not observed rent comps"}],"risks":["The ZIP market identifier matches a Census ZCTA only for this analysis label. ZCTA boundaries are statistical constructs rather than USPS delivery ZIP areas, so household survey results may not map perfectly to a specific mailing address.","Zillow ZORI blends rental types and ACS gross rent measures occupied homes with selected utilities. Their difference should not be interpreted as a precise rent increase, a lease renewal result, or a current unit-level market quote.","The high rent-burden share and income screen describe survey-level household conditions and arithmetic. They cannot establish whether a particular renter, building, lease arrangement, subsidy status, or utility package is affordable.","Redfin resale measures concern homes sold and listed in the direct ZIP for-sale market. The rent-price screening ratio omits operating expenses, financing, taxes, vacancy, repairs, and property-specific details, so it cannot describe investment performance."],"qa":[{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across blended rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. HUD FMR/SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard. None should be substituted directly for another.","q":"Why does the report show different rent values from Zillow, ACS, and HUD?"},{"a":"It is a simple arithmetic screen that annualizes the current monthly Zillow ZORI and divides it by 30%. It shows the income level associated with allocating that share of income to the index rent. It is not financial advice, an underwriting conclusion, a tenant qualification rule, or a statement about any household’s actual budget.","q":"What does the 30% required-income figure mean?"},{"a":"No. The history block is backward-looking and reports exact same-month changes, variability, drawdown, coverage, and discovery ranks from observed Zillow ZIP ZORI history. The positive historical path and limited drawdown describe prior index behavior only. They do not establish future rent changes, a future vacancy outcome, or an investment recommendation.","q":"Does the rent history indicate a forecast for future asking rents?"},{"a":"Redfin’s rolling-three-month ZIP evidence is a for-sale market observation, not rental data. Higher inventory, marketing time, sale-to-list results, and median sold-price movement describe resale liquidity and pricing conditions. Its contrast with rising ZORI is a useful cross-market tension, but it does not prove that one market causes movement in the other.","q":"How should the resale data be read alongside the rent data?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":776.864507},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":788.436615},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":793.429309},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":795.15093},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":802.122973},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":800.850934},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":801.978039},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":806.558007},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":814.159564},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":820.888122},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":822.620787},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":826.068523},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":829.349711},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":827.810809},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":831.178555},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":830.82314},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":830.198037},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":830.400821},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":832.10397},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":839.681638},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":842.61961},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":848.370665},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":844.672055},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":848.434138},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":848.120499},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":855.249735},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":859.914423},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":863.392068},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":865.202096},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":872.957408},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":882.489104},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":876.491022},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":881.320046},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":876.950852},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":888.769385},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":892.227367},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":898.20139},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":899.458974},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":901.892634},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":907.926211},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":914.393904},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":917.673515},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":918.616283},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":928.499015},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":932.057007},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":942.108671},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":933.542916},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":943.302896},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":941.296105},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":959.314425},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":964.118083},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":976.016056},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":985.169906},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":1000.673581},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":1016.483984},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1018.858516},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1022.206125},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1025.031246},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1045.273901},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1059.680141},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1077.481552},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1082.801906},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1101.980361},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1113.390707},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1128.814589},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1135.255956},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1143.052899},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1157.724694},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1173.624175},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1187.795205},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1190.953509},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1188.445419},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1199.328795},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1207.51761},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1224.200816},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1237.183146},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1255.962249},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1273.448474},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1280.062852},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1277.920108},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1284.508353},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1283.831769},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1286.979745},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1290.806959},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1296.177084},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1308.547972},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1305.120848},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1308.899636},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1299.377254},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1299.806786},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1300.650329},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1312.700474},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1318.712513},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1332.05447},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1341.76452},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1354.817944},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1356.583214},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1360.06046},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1368.139976},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1370.078686},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1368.64599},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1371.534818},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1379.712909},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1386.557519},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1379.76821},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1385.852041},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1390.094542},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1402.688005},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1400.072452},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1396.008481},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1399.272421},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1404.515976},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1417.406181},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1422.514083},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1425.402147},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1425.038346},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1436.39077},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1435.692661},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1438.065798},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1432.396667},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1443.52033},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1453.59447}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":122,"firstPeriod":"2016-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":122,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1396.008481,"endRent":1453.59447,"change":0.04125045784732584,"cagr":0.04125045784732584},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1308.547972,"endRent":1453.59447,"change":0.11084538060787263,"cagr":0.03566159342236075},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1082.801906,"endRent":1453.59447,"change":0.3424380414786601,"cagr":0.06066649452041162}},"maxDrawdown":-0.009092109290224304,"annualizedVolatility":0.020003275358914146,"consecutiveReturnCount":121}}