At the stated Zillow endpoint, ZIP 27407 has a typical observed asking-rent index of $1,393, up 1.8% from the comparable month a year earlier. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index blended across rental types, rather than a lease-level quote or a measure of every unit. This five-digit label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. In the same comparison, Greensboro city-scope ZORI is $1,415, Guilford County-scope ZORI is $1,439, and Greensboro-High Point, NC metro-scope ZORI is $1,411; the ZIP sits modestly below each wider asking-rent context.
The bedroom view is a modelled scaling of the ZIP index, not a set of measured bedroom rents. Using the local HUD ladder, the modelled monthly estimates are $1,209 for a studio, $1,267 for one bedroom, $1,393 for two bedrooms, $1,780 for three bedrooms, and $2,051 for four bedrooms. The FY2026 HUD ladder used for that scaling runs from $1,250 for a studio to $2,120 for four bedrooms, with a $1,440 two-bedroom standard. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; the close relationship between the modelled two-bedroom figure and the ZIP index does not turn either figure into a quoted available-unit rent.
The matched Census ZCTA ACS five-year survey provides a different affordability lens. Its 2024 median gross rent is $1,154 with a $38 margin of error, or 20.7% below the current Zillow asking-rent index. ACS median gross rent describes occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities, so the gap can reflect both source design and the difference between incumbent households and current advertised-market conditions. Median household income is $59,427 with a $3,817 margin of error. Arithmetic at the 30% rent-to-income screen places the indexed rent at a required annual income of $55,720 and at 28.1% of the reported median income. That screen is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. More than half of surveyed renter households were rent burdened at the 30%-or-more threshold, showing that ZIP-level median income cannot establish affordability for a particular household or home.
Housing composition adds caution to that broad affordability screen. The ZCTA survey estimates 51,697 residents, with a population margin of error of 2,724, across 23,912 housing units. Of those units, 21,985 are occupied and 1,927 are vacant, producing an 8.1% vacancy rate. The renter-occupied count is 11,296, and renters account for 51.4% of occupied homes. The stock includes single-family and larger multifamily structures, while vacant units include homes identified for rent, for sale, and seasonal use. These are area-level survey categories, not evidence that a particular available rental is vacant, competitively priced, or affordable. The renter majority makes rental conditions consequential in the local stock, but it does not establish the condition, utility arrangement, or leasing terms of any specific address.
The history supports stable growth, but the pace has moderated. The series contains 122 observations and 121 consecutive monthly returns, with 100% stated coverage, providing a complete observed history for this calculation window. Exact same-month annualized rent change was 1.8% over one year, versus 3.0% over three years and 5.7% over five years. Recent direction therefore remains positive but breaks from the faster longer-run path rather than fully confirming it. Across monthly returns, annualized variability was 2.8%, which suggests relatively limited month-to-month movement but does not eliminate index revision or composition risk. Separately, the maximum drawdown was 2.0%, indicating that the historical series did experience declines. Transparent discovery ranks were 1,349 for momentum, 1,197 for stability, and 1,206 for the balanced measure among history-eligible ZIPs, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations; modest variability supports somewhat more confidence in the current snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but slowing growth still matters.
The direct rolling-three-month Redfin ZIP resale observation presents a separate tension. Median sold price was $264,940, up 1.9% year over year, with 120 homes sold and a median 36 days on market. Active listings and inventory increased from a year earlier, while pending sales, months of supply, and sale-to-list measures all describe the for-sale market rather than rental transactions. Supply stood at 3.4 months, average sale-to-list was below list, and the above-list and rapid off-market shares indicate that not every sale followed the same negotiating pattern. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by the median sold price is a 6.3% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Positive resale price change confirms that the resale series was not broadly declining, yet rising resale supply and below-list average outcomes challenge any simple reading of the rent history as uniformly tightening market conditions.
Read together, the evidence is not synchronized into a single market conclusion. The current ZIP asking-rent index trails the named city, county, and metro asking-rent contexts, while the ACS occupied-renter measure is lower still and the burden estimate remains elevated. The rent series has gained over every measured horizon, but its latest pace is slower than its longer path. Meanwhile, direct ZIP resale prices increased even as resale inventory expanded and average sale-to-list results remained below list. This combination makes the current rent index a useful benchmark, not a standalone property valuation or affordability finding. It also means the resale screen cannot validate a rental conclusion: it combines two different source universes with different timing, coverage, and underlying transactions.
Important limits remain at the property level. ZORI is a blended typical asking-rent index, ACS is a multiyear survey of occupied homes, HUD is an administrative benchmark, and Redfin describes completed ZIP resale activity. Before applying these area measures to an address, a reader should verify the actual advertised asking rent, bedroom count, lease term, included and separately billed utilities, concessions, parking or other recurring charges, condition, and availability date. They should also compare the home with current rental listings of similar configuration and inspect whether a listed vacancy is genuinely rentable rather than merely classified as vacant in a survey. Those checks are necessary because neither area burden nor area vacancy proves the economics, marketability, or affordability of a particular unit.
","findings":[{"body":"The ZIP’s Zillow asking-rent index is modestly below the Greensboro city, Guilford County, and Greensboro-High Point metro context values. That comparison is limited to Zillow-style asking-rent context and should not be substituted for ACS occupied-household rent, HUD administrative standards, or a property-specific advertised rent.","title":"Current rent is below wider asking-rent contexts"},{"body":"The latest same-month rent change remains positive, but the one-year pace is below the three-year and five-year annualized changes. Complete history coverage and comparatively limited monthly variation make the series useful as a backward-looking benchmark, while the slowdown reduces confidence in extending the longer-run growth pace into the future.","title":"Recent rent growth is positive but slower than the longer record"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen places the current asking-rent index below the reported area median-income threshold at a thirty-percent standard. However, the ACS survey also shows that more than half of renter households are burdened at that threshold. Survey burden is a population measure, not evidence about any applicant or unit.","title":"Household affordability signals are mixed"},{"body":"Redfin’s rolling resale observation shows positive year-over-year sold-price movement alongside increased resale supply and average sale-to-list results below list. Those measures describe for-sale transactions only. The annualized rent-to-price figure is a cross-source screening ratio and cannot establish property operating income, expenses, or return.","title":"Resale evidence does not provide a direct rental valuation"}],"risks":["Zillow asking-rent indexing, ACS occupied-renter survey results, HUD administrative standards, and Redfin resale observations measure different universes, so apparent gaps may reflect methodology and timing rather than a directly comparable local pricing difference.","The reported renter-burden share and area median income describe households in the matched ZCTA survey, not an individual renter’s income, utility costs, lease terms, or ability to pay for a specific available home.","The resale figures are direct ZIP for-sale observations, but sold prices, marketing time, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes do not provide rental comparable evidence or determine the market value of a particular rental property.","Modelled bedroom estimates inherit both the ZIP rent index and the HUD bedroom ladder, requiring address-level confirmation of bedroom designation, unit condition, included utilities, concessions, recurring fees, and actual listing availability."],"qa":[{"a":"The measures are designed for different populations and purposes. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types, whereas ACS median gross rent is a multiyear survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference does not by itself establish overpricing, rent acceleration, or a mismatch for any particular unit.","q":"Why does the current Zillow rent index exceed ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The bedroom figures are modelled monthly ZIP estimates created by scaling the overall ZIP Zillow asking-rent index through the local HUD bedroom ladder. HUD standards are administrative benchmarks rather than asking rents, so these figures should be used as a transparent sizing framework and checked against current comparable listings.","q":"Are the bedroom figures observed rents for available apartments or houses?"},{"a":"It divides annualized ZIP Zillow asking rent by Redfin’s ZIP median sold price. Because it combines an asking-rent index with a resale median, it is only a cross-source screening ratio. It excludes expenses, financing, vacancy experience, taxes, insurance, property condition, and unit-specific rent, so it is not a cap rate or return measure.","q":"What does the rent-to-price screening ratio mean?"},{"a":"The complete observation coverage and relatively limited monthly variability support use of the current index as a reasonably stable backward-looking benchmark. However, the latest annual change is slower than the longer-horizon changes, and the series has experienced a drawdown. That means the current figure should be verified with contemporaneous unit-level asking-rent evidence.","q":"How should the history affect confidence in the current rent snapshot?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2016-05-01","rent":780.363884},{"period":"2016-06-01","rent":780.920649},{"period":"2016-07-01","rent":774.967957},{"period":"2016-08-01","rent":774.997704},{"period":"2016-09-01","rent":782.950278},{"period":"2016-10-01","rent":782.730101},{"period":"2016-11-01","rent":785.697505},{"period":"2016-12-01","rent":778.85064},{"period":"2017-01-01","rent":790.801157},{"period":"2017-02-01","rent":796.213623},{"period":"2017-03-01","rent":803.026698},{"period":"2017-04-01","rent":791.271078},{"period":"2017-05-01","rent":791.824211},{"period":"2017-06-01","rent":797.904146},{"period":"2017-07-01","rent":813.153397},{"period":"2017-08-01","rent":823.185342},{"period":"2017-09-01","rent":818.679936},{"period":"2017-10-01","rent":819.682229},{"period":"2017-11-01","rent":817.540882},{"period":"2017-12-01","rent":823.322508},{"period":"2018-01-01","rent":824.2979},{"period":"2018-02-01","rent":829.203826},{"period":"2018-03-01","rent":843.129151},{"period":"2018-04-01","rent":839.501335},{"period":"2018-05-01","rent":836.654313},{"period":"2018-06-01","rent":832.194126},{"period":"2018-07-01","rent":840.788675},{"period":"2018-08-01","rent":842.546004},{"period":"2018-09-01","rent":846.36541},{"period":"2018-10-01","rent":851.75853},{"period":"2018-11-01","rent":856.8416},{"period":"2018-12-01","rent":864.892447},{"period":"2019-01-01","rent":865.602932},{"period":"2019-02-01","rent":873.48009},{"period":"2019-03-01","rent":868.324609},{"period":"2019-04-01","rent":883.136607},{"period":"2019-05-01","rent":892.389708},{"period":"2019-06-01","rent":901.18945},{"period":"2019-07-01","rent":895.854791},{"period":"2019-08-01","rent":897.605362},{"period":"2019-09-01","rent":902.962462},{"period":"2019-10-01","rent":905.985574},{"period":"2019-11-01","rent":909.792533},{"period":"2019-12-01","rent":909.29304},{"period":"2020-01-01","rent":912.837161},{"period":"2020-02-01","rent":909.817117},{"period":"2020-03-01","rent":901.5651},{"period":"2020-04-01","rent":894.467132},{"period":"2020-05-01","rent":902.099088},{"period":"2020-06-01","rent":918.47528},{"period":"2020-07-01","rent":923.448023},{"period":"2020-08-01","rent":932.127453},{"period":"2020-09-01","rent":940.607665},{"period":"2020-10-01","rent":952.451869},{"period":"2020-11-01","rent":956.051803},{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":951.267389},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":949.979109},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":963.129161},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":995.352038},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1021.049315},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1042.05867},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1054.143215},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1069.581624},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1084.790436},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1106.867193},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1132.002525},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1149.931887},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1167.936585},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1179.587537},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1192.151877},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1196.067303},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1205.312627},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1208.989081},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1213.737781},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1234.222245},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1243.089522},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1241.375952},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1237.223978},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1243.161131},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1259.120841},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1266.289414},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1271.880429},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1282.017133},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1279.758788},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1281.690797},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1275.54339},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1269.435656},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1266.074498},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1280.588172},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1288.002313},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1308.19629},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1307.395647},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1321.618233},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1319.132816},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1322.991172},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1323.122705},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1339.685461},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1355.106698},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1359.301441},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1360.119425},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1349.879707},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1350.360692},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1342.813193},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1348.542786},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1346.502033},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1360.903649},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1359.335754},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1364.500953},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1362.291363},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1368.707862},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1374.886344},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1383.952921},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1393.710831},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1398.776041},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1401.125341},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1400.994559},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1400.984788},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1396.346575},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1399.904771},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1401.862793},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1400.025029},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1392.961824}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":122,"firstPeriod":"2016-05-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":122,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1368.707862,"endRent":1392.961824,"change":0.017720335122908715,"cagr":0.017720335122908715},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1275.54339,"endRent":1392.961824,"change":0.09205365722603909,"cagr":0.029788393148321823},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1054.143215,"endRent":1392.961824,"change":0.32141610758268735,"cagr":0.05732358366585122}},"maxDrawdown":-0.020124102945015876,"annualizedVolatility":0.02776391125118751,"consecutiveReturnCount":121}}