In Apex, ZIP 27502 presents a split screen: Zillow’s typical observed asking-rent index, blended across rental types, was $2,126 in June 2026, up 0.5% from a year earlier. Yet Redfin’s direct rolling-three-month ZIP resale observation shows a $599,864 median sold price, down 1.7% year over year, alongside inventory of 228 homes, up 36.5%. Rent movement is still positive while resale pricing and available for-sale inventory point to a less taut sales backdrop. That is a cross-market tension, not evidence that rental transactions and home sales are moving together or that either series predicts the other.
The Zillow history supports stable growth rather than a recent break from the longer path. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 0.5% over one year, 0.8% over three years, and 3.8% over five years: the current pace is slower, but still directionally consistent with the longer positive record. Monthly rent changes produced 2.6% annualized variability, so a single current rent reading warrants moderate rather than absolute confidence. The deepest historical decline from a prior peak was 2.6%, a limited retreat in the observed record. Coverage was 99.3%; transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,176 for momentum, 901 for stability, and 1,805 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher.
These sources answer different questions. Zillow ZORI is a ZIP-level asking-rent index, whereas the matched Census ZCTA’s ACS five-year survey reports a $1,909 median gross rent for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities; the asking index is therefore 11.4% above that survey median. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. HUD’s FY2026 two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard is $2,140, putting the ZIP asking-rent index close to that administrative benchmark. HUD FMR/SAFMR is bedroom-specific program administration, not observed asking rent, and ACS gross rent is not a current asking-rent quote.
The bedroom view is a modelled estimate, created by scaling ZIP ZORI with the local HUD ladder; it is never a measurement of bedroom-specific rents. The resulting monthly estimates are $1,848 for a studio, $1,937 for one bedroom, $2,126 for two bedrooms, $2,672 for three bedrooms, and $3,567 for four bedrooms. This ladder is useful for comparing relative bedroom sizing within the ZIP’s index framework, but it does not capture the particular building, lease term, utilities, concessions, condition, or availability behind any advertised unit. Its alignment to HUD scaling does not turn the estimates into market observations.
At a 30% rent-to-income screen, annualizing the current ZIP asking-rent index produces required income of $85,040. That arithmetic threshold is below the matched ZCTA’s $143,922 median household income, and the index equals 17.7% of that area-level income measure. It is not advice, an applicant qualification rule, or evidence of what any household can pay. The ACS burden result introduces an important distributional counterpoint: among 3,204 renter households surveyed, 1,456, or 45.4%, paid 30% or more of income toward gross rent. That burden measure includes occupied renter homes and cannot establish affordability for a particular unit or renter.
The matched ZCTA’s housing profile also argues against treating a headline rent figure as a complete availability signal. Of 18,190 housing units, 17,368 were occupied, producing a 4.5% vacancy rate; 479 vacant units were classified as for rent. Renter households represented 18.4% of occupied homes. The stock was weighted toward 16,096 single-family units, while 780 units were in larger multifamily structures. These ACS five-year counts describe the surveyed housing base rather than live listings. In particular, vacant-for-rent units do not prove that a given property is currently rentable, offered at the index level, or suitable for a specific household.
Wider-area comparisons place the ZIP’s asking-rent index above the Apex city context rent of $2,017, the Wake County context rent of $1,676, and the Raleigh-Cary, NC metro context rent of $1,689; city, county, and metro figures are context only, not substitutes for ZIP evidence. The ZIP resale record adds direct liquidity detail: 262 homes sold with a median 28 days on market and 2.6 months of supply. Average sale-to-list was 99.14%, 21.2% of sales closed above list, and 46.4% went off market within two weeks. Those sales signals show ongoing transaction activity despite softer median price and higher inventory, challenging any simple conclusion drawn solely from the steadier rent history or the income screen.
The practical limits are substantial. ZORI is a blended asking-rent index, ACS is a lagged five-year survey with sampling uncertainty, HUD is an administrative standard, and Redfin measures for-sale resales rather than rental economics. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield. Property-level applicability depends on checks of the actual bedroom count, advertised rent, lease length, included utilities, concessions, occupancy status, condition, days available, sale comparability, and the distinction between an active listing and a completed sale. Those checks determine whether the broad ZIP evidence fits a specific property.
","findings":[{"body":"The latest ZIP asking-rent index rose 0.5% over one year, compared with annualized same-month gains of 0.8% over three years and 3.8% over five years. That pattern supports continued positive historical direction, but it also shows a much slower recent pace than the longer record. The history is descriptive and backward-looking, not a forecast.","title":"Rent growth remains positive but has slowed"},{"body":"ZIP ZORI increased slightly while the direct ZIP median sold price declined and for-sale inventory expanded. At the same time, homes continued to sell with limited months of supply and near-list sale pricing. This is evidence of a mixed resale environment, not proof that rent and sale prices are causally linked or that either market will move in a specified direction.","title":"The rental and resale screens are not fully aligned"},{"body":"The arithmetic income screen based on current asking rent is below matched-ZCTA median household income, yet the ACS survey reports that a substantial share of renter households paid at least 30% of income toward gross rent. Median household income is an area-wide benchmark, while burden captures renter-household outcomes. Neither measure decides affordability for a particular applicant or unit.","title":"Area-level income and renter burden tell different stories"},{"body":"Studio-through-four-bedroom values are modelled by applying the local HUD bedroom ladder to the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index. That creates a consistent relative sizing tool, but it does not replace observed bedroom-specific listings or leases. Actual pricing can differ because of property type, utilities, concessions, lease term, unit quality, timing, and whether a unit is available.","title":"Bedroom figures are scaled estimates, not observed rents"}],"risks":["The Zillow index is a blended typical asking-rent measure across rental types, so it may not match the advertised rent, effective rent after concessions, or included utilities for any individual property.","ACS gross rent and burden figures are matched-ZCTA five-year survey estimates for occupied renter homes. They are not current listing data, and survey results cannot establish the circumstances of a specific household.","The Redfin figures measure direct ZIP for-sale resales over a rolling three-month period, not rental transactions. Median price, supply, and marketing signals therefore cannot be used as rental comparables.","The bedroom ladder is mechanically modelled from ZIP ZORI and HUD standards. It can be distorted for a property whose bedroom count, unit type, condition, utility package, or lease terms differ from the index mix."],"qa":[{"a":"They come from different evidence universes. Zillow ZORI is a current ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. Timing, occupied-versus-advertised homes, utilities, and survey design can all produce a difference without showing an error in either source.","q":"Why is Zillow rent higher than ACS median gross rent?"},{"a":"No. The studio through four-bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. They scale the ZIP-wide Zillow asking-rent index by the local HUD bedroom ladder. They provide a relative pricing framework, but an actual unit may differ because of building type, condition, utilities, concessions, lease duration, and availability.","q":"Are the bedroom rent figures actual observed rents?"},{"a":"No. The required-income figure is only arithmetic: annualized asking rent divided by the 30% screen. It is not advice, an underwriting standard, an applicant qualification rule, or a determination of affordability. Actual qualification and household affordability depend on income definitions, debts, household composition, lease terms, utility obligations, and property-specific policies not contained in this packet.","q":"Does the required-income figure determine whether someone qualifies?"},{"a":"Redfin contributes a separate direct ZIP for-sale observation: sold prices, transaction count, marketing time, inventory, supply, and sale-to-list outcomes. It helps describe resale liquidity and pricing conditions, but it does not measure rental transactions. The annualized rent-to-price calculation is only a cross-source screening ratio and must not be treated as a cap rate, yield, or expected return.","q":"What does the Redfin resale evidence add to the rent analysis?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 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