At the June 2026 endpoint, ZIP 27519 has a Zillow ZORI of $2,040 per month: a cooling asking-rent reading that nonetheless sits above each supplied larger-area context figure. ZORI is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, not the advertised price, effective lease payment, or condition-adjusted value of a particular home. In Cary city context (city scope), the asking-rent index is $1,775; in Wake County context (county scope), it is $1,676; and in Raleigh-Cary, NC context (metro scope), it is $1,689. Those city, county, and metro figures are wider context only, so they frame the ZIP’s relative level without converting them into substitutes for ZIP-specific observation. The five-digit label is both Zillow’s ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP.
The history argues against treating the current index as a fresh acceleration. Through the stated endpoint, reported exact same-month annualized changes were -0.12% for 1 year, -0.65% for 3 years, and +3.09% for 5 years. Recent direction therefore breaks from, rather than confirms, the longer positive path; this is a backward-looking measurement, not a forecast. The series has 100% stated coverage. Annualized monthly-return variability was 1.93%, and maximum drawdown was -2.89%. That contained historical movement supports more confidence in one index snapshot than a highly erratic series would, but it does not erase aggregation, timing, or listing-mix limits. Transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,507 for momentum, 98 for stability, and 1,576 for the balanced measure; lower rank is higher.
Source design explains why a second rent figure does not contradict ZORI. In the matched Census ZCTA, the ACS 2024 five-year survey places median gross rent at $1,952, with a stated $59 margin of error. This survey describes occupied renter homes and gross rent includes selected utilities; it is neither an asking-rent series nor a measure of every currently available listing. The current ZORI is 4.5% above that ACS median. The difference does not by itself identify listing quality, lease terms, utility inclusion, or a specific property-level rent change. The ACS estimate is a household-survey benchmark, while ZORI is the ZIP asking-rent index. Neither figure determines utilities, concessions, or leasing terms for an individual unit.
Bedroom detail should be treated as a scaling exercise, not as observed local bedroom pricing. The supplied FY2026 HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not asking rent; its local two-bedroom standard is $2,240. Scaling the ZIP ZORI by that local HUD ladder produces modelled monthly estimates of $1,776 for a studio, $1,858 for one bedroom, $2,040 for two bedrooms, $2,559 for three bedrooms, and $3,406 for four bedrooms. They are modelled estimates, never measured bedroom rents. The current index sits about 9% below this HUD two-bedroom standard, but that relationship is not an assertion that a two-bedroom listing should rent at either amount. Bedroom count, rental type, included charges, and unit characteristics can make a particular asking rent depart from both benchmarks.
The clearest affordability contrast is between an area-level income screen and household-level burden. Applying the 30% screen to the current monthly index yields $81,600 of annual income; this is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The ZCTA’s ACS median household income is $165,586, a separate all-household measure that cannot identify a renter’s income or a unit’s affordability. Among the surveyed renter-household universe, 1,997 of 7,567 renter households were reported at or above that threshold, or 26.4%. That burden estimate concerns occupied renter households and the ACS gross-rent definition, not proof that any particular available unit will burden a particular applicant. It should not be used to infer eligibility, utility treatment, or a lease outcome.
Housing composition puts a structural boundary around broad averages. The ACS ZCTA reports 25,297 housing units, a 3.1% vacancy rate, and 485 units classified as vacant for rent. Vacancy is an area-wide inventory-status count; it neither establishes that a desired unit is available nor describes its price, condition, or lease terms. The stock records both single-family units and units in large multifamily structures, while renter households account for 30.9% of occupied homes. Those structure and occupancy categories document a mixed base rather than a single rental product. They do not show unit-level turnover, bedroom mix, or current listing inventory, so they belong alongside the Zillow index and ACS household survey rather than as direct evidence about a specific property.
Several limits remain material when turning these area summaries into a listing comparison. ZORI pools rental types and is an index; ACS reflects occupied renter homes over a survey period and includes selected utilities; HUD is an administrative standard; and the bedroom figures here are modelled from that HUD ladder. None supplies a measured rent, vacancy status, or total move-in cost for a chosen home. Property-level checking should reconcile the address’s ZIP market assignment with its USPS delivery ZIP, confirm bedroom count and rental type, identify which utilities and recurring charges are included, and distinguish asking rent from an executed lease payment. It should also confirm availability, lease term, furnishing, concessions, and whether the listing’s bedroom configuration matches the modelled comparison. Does the specific listing pass those definitional checks before its price is compared with an area index?
","findings":[{"body":"At the June 2026 endpoint, the ZIP’s $2,040 Zillow asking-rent index is higher than the supplied Cary city, Wake County, and Raleigh-Cary metro context values. Yet the same-month history is negative over the recent one- and three-year windows and positive over five years. This places a high current relative level beside cooling momentum, rather than a uniform upward signal.","title":"Cooling history, elevated context level"},{"body":"The ACS matched ZCTA estimate is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes, with gross rent including selected utilities. Zillow ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index across rental types. Its modest gap above the ACS median cannot isolate a change in listing quality, leases, utility inclusion, or timing. Each measure is useful only within its own source universe.","title":"ACS and Zillow answer different questions"},{"body":"The studio-through-four-bedroom figures are calculated by scaling the ZIP’s ZORI with the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD standards are administrative and bedroom specific, while ZORI is blended across rental types. Accordingly, the displayed ladder creates consistent comparison estimates, but it cannot establish a market rent for a chosen bedroom count, property type, or listing.","title":"The bedroom ladder is modelled, not measured"},{"body":"Survey results show a minority of renter households in the reported burden category and a reported area vacancy rate, alongside a stock dominated by single-family units. These are aggregate household and inventory-status observations. They do not identify whether a particular vacant home is rentable, affordable to a particular household, available now, or offered with the utilities and terms implied by its advertised rent.","title":"Burden and vacancy are area indicators"}],"risks":["ZORI’s blended asking-rent index cannot reveal a particular listing’s contract rent, rent concessions, condition, utility charges, bedroom configuration, or availability, even when its ZIP-level history is fully covered.","The ACS ZCTA survey is geographically matched but not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP, and its occupied-renter, gross-rent universe differs from current asking listings and includes survey uncertainty.","HUD FMR/SAFMR values are administrative bedroom-specific standards. Using them to scale ZORI produces modelled estimates whose apparent precision should not be mistaken for observed bedroom rents.","Area vacancy and rent-burden statistics cannot demonstrate that any specific unit is open, suitable, utility-inclusive, or affordable to a specific renter under that renter’s own income and lease terms."],"qa":[{"a":"The current Zillow figure is the ZIP-level ZORI, a typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types at the stated endpoint. It is not a measured lease payment for one address, and it does not separately identify bedrooms, utilities, concessions, condition, or availability. The history describes this same index only.","q":"What does the current Zillow number represent?"},{"a":"ACS reports a five-year survey estimate for occupied renter homes in the matched Census ZCTA, and its median gross rent includes selected utilities. ZORI summarizes typical observed asking rents in the Zillow ZIP market across rental types. Timing, occupied-versus-available status, and construction differ, so the measures are complementary benchmarks rather than interchangeable unit prices.","q":"Why is the ACS rent figure not interchangeable with ZORI?"},{"a":"No. The displayed studio through four-bedroom values are modelled monthly estimates made by scaling the ZIP ZORI using the local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder. HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard, not an asking-rent survey. The model therefore supports a consistent comparison ladder but cannot measure what a particular bedroom type actually asks or leases for.","q":"Are the bedroom estimates observed rents?"},{"a":"The stated annual income amount results from applying a 30% share of income to the current monthly ZORI and annualizing it. It is arithmetic only, not advice or an applicant qualification rule. The ACS burden share instead describes surveyed renter households at the area level and cannot determine a particular renter’s budget, eligibility, or unit-level burden.","q":"How should the income threshold and burden statistic be read?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent 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