At the June 2026 endpoint, Zillow ZIP market identifier 27523 had a typical observed asking-rent index of $1,951 per month, up only 0.07% from a year earlier. Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is not a record of one lease, building, or bedroom category. The label is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a matched Census ZCTA; a ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The nearly unchanged current reading is the central tension: it preserves a high rent level while providing little recent upward movement.
The backward-looking Zillow history makes that tension clearer. Exact same-month annualized ZORI change was 0.07% over one year, negative 0.08% over three years, and positive 3.00% over five years. Thus, the recent direction breaks from the stronger longer path rather than confirming it. Monthly rent-change variability annualized to 2.93%, indicating that even this relatively restrained series has moved around its current level. Separately, the largest recorded peak-to-trough decline was 2.35%, a modest historical setback that still cautions against placing excessive confidence in a single current snapshot. History coverage was complete, and transparent national discovery ranks among history-eligible ZIPs were 2,416 for momentum, 1,483 for stability, and 2,375 for the balanced measure, where lower ranks are higher. These are backward-looking measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
For-sale evidence shows a related but not identical moderation. In Redfin's direct rolling three-month ZIP resale observation, median sold price was $761,828, up 0.32% year over year; 133 homes sold with a median 41 days on market. Inventory stood at 118 homes and months of supply at 2.7. Average sale-to-list was 98.78%, while 15.52% of sales closed above list and 35.33% went off market within two weeks. This is a resale-market observation, not rental transactions or rental comparables. It confirms that prices were not falling materially, but the marketing and sale-to-list signals challenge any simple claim that a nearly flat rent index reflects uniformly intense market pressure. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price produces a 3.07% cross-source screening ratio only; it is not a cap rate, net return, expected return, or property yield.
The close relationship between Zillow's current asking index and Census rent should not erase their different universes. The ACS 2024 five-year matched-ZCTA median gross rent was $1,939, only $12 below Zillow's current figure. ACS is a survey of occupied renter homes and median gross rent includes selected utilities, whereas ZORI is a typical observed asking-rent index. ACS also carries its reported sampling uncertainty, and neither metric identifies the rent, utility treatment, or availability of a particular unit. The numerical proximity is useful context, not evidence that new listings and occupied homes are economically interchangeable.
Bedroom figures are modelled estimates, not measured bedroom rents. Scaling ZIP ZORI through the local HUD ladder produces monthly estimates of $1,683 for a studio, $1,775 for one bedroom, $1,951 for two bedrooms, $2,441 for three bedrooms, and $3,209 for four bedrooms. The two-bedroom estimate is below the local HUD two-bedroom standard of $2,110 by 7.5%. HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent; it should not be treated as a listing-price survey or as proof of achievable rent. The ladder is most useful for preserving relative bedroom sizing when only the ZIP-wide ZORI is directly observed.
The required annual income screen is $78,040, calculated from the ZIP asking index over a year at the 30% threshold. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched-ZCTA ACS median household income was $135,625, producing a 17.3% asking-rent-to-income screen, although the survey income estimate has a reported margin of error. Separately, 861 of 2,193 renter households, or 39.3%, were reported as paying at least 30% of income toward rent. That burden statistic describes surveyed renter households, not the financial position of a prospective tenant or the affordability of any particular available property.
Housing composition also limits broad conclusions. The matched ZCTA contained 8,450 housing units, with a 6.4% vacancy rate; 6,565 units were single-family and 811 were in large multifamily structures. Renter households numbered 2,193, representing a 27.7% renter share, and 169 vacant units were classified as for rent. A vacancy classification does not establish that a specific unit is available, rentable at the index level, or suitable for a given household. For wider-context comparison, the Apex city rent context exceeds the ZIP index, while the Wake County county context and Raleigh-Cary, NC metro context are below it; these city, county, and metro values are context only and not substitutes for ZIP evidence.
The packet supports a disciplined reading rather than a property conclusion: asking rent is essentially flat after a positive longer horizon, resale prices are only slightly higher, and resale liquidity is mixed rather than one-directional. Zillow, ACS, HUD, and Redfin each answer different questions and cannot be converted into a unit-level operating statement. Property-level review would need current same-bedroom asking comparables, actual lease terms, utility responsibilities, concessions, unit condition, days available, and relevant closed-sale comparables. It would also need confirmation that the property falls within the market identifier and that the observed data period fits the decision at hand. Does the actual unit's documented rent and availability align with these separate market screens?
","findings":[{"body":"The current Zillow asking-rent index is $1,951, with only a 0.07% one-year increase. That reading follows a negative three-year annualized change but remains consistent with a positive five-year annualized path. The evidence supports a view of stabilized asking-rent conditions rather than a clear acceleration, while remaining strictly backward-looking.","title":"Rent level is high but recent movement is nearly flat"},{"body":"Redfin's direct ZIP resale observation shows a slightly higher median sold price, limited months of supply, and some above-list sales. At the same time, the typical sale closed below list and marketing time was measured in weeks rather than days. Those for-sale signals neither measure rental demand nor fully reinforce the flat current ZORI reading.","title":"Resale signals do not provide a simple tightness narrative"},{"body":"Zillow ZORI and ACS median gross rent are numerically close in this packet, but they are not interchangeable. ZORI tracks typical observed asking rents across rental types. ACS is a five-year survey of occupied renter homes and includes selected utilities. The difference in source universe matters especially when comparing a new listing with an occupied household survey result.","title":"Similar Zillow and ACS rent figures have different meanings"},{"body":"The required-income calculation is a mechanical 30% screen based on the ZIP asking-rent index, not a qualification standard. The ACS burden share instead reports surveyed renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent. Neither measure establishes whether any named household can afford a specific unit, because lease terms, utilities, and household income vary.","title":"The affordability screen and burden measure answer separate questions"}],"risks":["A nearly unchanged ZIP asking-rent index can mask variation across property types, bedroom counts, lease terms, concessions, utility obligations, and the timing of individual listings within the market identifier.","The historical rent series is complete but backward-looking. Its modest drawdown and measured variability describe past index movement, not the likely direction, durability, or timing of future asking rents.","ACS ZCTA statistics are survey estimates for a statistical area rather than direct records for a USPS delivery ZIP or a specific property. Sampling uncertainty and utility inclusion further constrain comparison.","Redfin resale data concern homes sold in a rolling ZIP observation, not rental transactions. Median price, marketing, and sale-to-list patterns cannot establish operating costs, achievable rent, or transaction economics for one property."],"qa":[{"a":"It represents Zillow ZORI, a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types. It is useful for tracking the broad asking-rent level and its history, but it is not a lease record, a guaranteed available rent, or a measured rent for a particular bedroom count or building.","q":"What does the current Zillow rent figure represent?"},{"a":"They measure different universes. Zillow ZORI is an asking-rent index, ACS median gross rent is a five-year survey measure for occupied renter homes that includes selected utilities, and HUD FMR or SAFMR is an administrative bedroom-specific standard. Differences therefore do not automatically identify an error or a market opportunity.","q":"Why can Zillow, ACS, and HUD show different rent figures?"},{"a":"The history shows near-flat recent movement, a negative annualized three-year change, and a positive five-year path. Its variability and drawdown indicate that the index has not been perfectly static. Complete coverage improves confidence that the recorded history is present, but it does not convert historical measurements into a forecast.","q":"How should the rent history affect confidence in the current reading?"},{"a":"Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by Redfin median sold price is only a cross-source screening ratio. It can place asking-rent scale beside resale-price scale, but it excludes property expenses, financing, taxes, maintenance, vacancy experience, concessions, and unit-specific rent. It is therefore not a cap rate, return estimate, or property yield.","q":"How should the resale screening ratio be used?"}],"sources":[{"key":"apartment_list_time_on_market","name":"Apartment List Time on Market — listing liquidity","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/category/data-rent-estimates"},{"key":"apartment_list_vacancy","name":"Apartment List Vacancy Index — rental vacancy","release":"Apartment List 2026-07","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/apartment-list-vacancy-index-methodology"},{"key":"census_zcta_facts","name":"Census ACS five-year — ZCTA housing and income","release":"ACS 2024 5-year ZCTA","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5.html"},{"key":"hud_zip","name":"HUD USPS crosswalk and Small Area FMRs — ZIP rent fallback","release":"ZIP-CBSA 2025Q4 + SAFMR FY2026","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/usps_crosswalk.html"},{"key":"realtor_county","name":"Realtor.com Economic Research — county listing inventory","release":"county inventory 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-28","url":"https://www.realtor.com/research/data/"},{"key":"redfin","name":"Redfin Data Center — inventory, days on market, and price cuts","release":"metro tracker through 2026-05-01","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"redfin_zip","name":"Redfin Data Center — ZIP resale activity and supply","release":"ZIP rolling 3 months through 2026-06-30; updated 2026-07-03","pulledAt":"2026-08-12","url":"https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/"},{"key":"zillow_county","name":"Zillow ZHVI and ZORI — county values and rents","release":"county ZHVI/ZORI 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori","name":"Zillow ZORI — metro market rents","release":"Metro_zori_uc_sfrcondomfr_sm_sa_month.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-26","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_city","name":"Zillow ZORI — city market rents","release":"zillow_zori_city.csv","pulledAt":"2026-07-29","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"},{"key":"zillow_zori_zip","name":"Zillow ZORI — ZIP market rents","release":"ZORI ZIP 2026-06","pulledAt":"2026-08-08","url":"https://www.zillow.com/research/data/"}],"history":[{"period":"2020-12-01","rent":1581.512193},{"period":"2021-01-01","rent":1596.13371},{"period":"2021-02-01","rent":1606.814739},{"period":"2021-03-01","rent":1601.467698},{"period":"2021-04-01","rent":1615.345506},{"period":"2021-05-01","rent":1639.929406},{"period":"2021-06-01","rent":1682.399091},{"period":"2021-07-01","rent":1727.583114},{"period":"2021-08-01","rent":1779.359072},{"period":"2021-09-01","rent":1801.604964},{"period":"2021-10-01","rent":1816.843186},{"period":"2021-11-01","rent":1831.079941},{"period":"2021-12-01","rent":1858.190969},{"period":"2022-01-01","rent":1883.784211},{"period":"2022-02-01","rent":1894.971793},{"period":"2022-03-01","rent":1905.458893},{"period":"2022-04-01","rent":1900.413246},{"period":"2022-05-01","rent":1905.300089},{"period":"2022-06-01","rent":1902.065993},{"period":"2022-07-01","rent":1906.330593},{"period":"2022-08-01","rent":1908.832868},{"period":"2022-09-01","rent":1927.819008},{"period":"2022-10-01","rent":1932.343125},{"period":"2022-11-01","rent":1917.138774},{"period":"2022-12-01","rent":1908.376407},{"period":"2023-01-01","rent":1919.384493},{"period":"2023-02-01","rent":1926.109403},{"period":"2023-03-01","rent":1938.806384},{"period":"2023-04-01","rent":1938.240824},{"period":"2023-05-01","rent":1944.446766},{"period":"2023-06-01","rent":1955.724806},{"period":"2023-07-01","rent":1960.128132},{"period":"2023-08-01","rent":1948.044121},{"period":"2023-09-01","rent":1920.76454},{"period":"2023-10-01","rent":1928.353849},{"period":"2023-11-01","rent":1956.839833},{"period":"2023-12-01","rent":1960.406584},{"period":"2024-01-01","rent":1925.529744},{"period":"2024-02-01","rent":1920.364497},{"period":"2024-03-01","rent":1924.565505},{"period":"2024-04-01","rent":1950.20823},{"period":"2024-05-01","rent":1956.891184},{"period":"2024-06-01","rent":1966.634107},{"period":"2024-07-01","rent":1957.054025},{"period":"2024-08-01","rent":1956.529102},{"period":"2024-09-01","rent":1953.273588},{"period":"2024-10-01","rent":1963.679814},{"period":"2024-11-01","rent":1959.378782},{"period":"2024-12-01","rent":1969.258819},{"period":"2025-01-01","rent":1984.129308},{"period":"2025-02-01","rent":1993.270117},{"period":"2025-03-01","rent":1978.214628},{"period":"2025-04-01","rent":1960.535322},{"period":"2025-05-01","rent":1957.498091},{"period":"2025-06-01","rent":1949.472534},{"period":"2025-07-01","rent":1955.046301},{"period":"2025-08-01","rent":1961.435399},{"period":"2025-09-01","rent":1974.486604},{"period":"2025-10-01","rent":1963.572519},{"period":"2025-11-01","rent":1957.198159},{"period":"2025-12-01","rent":1949.840649},{"period":"2026-01-01","rent":1952.36796},{"period":"2026-02-01","rent":1946.45263},{"period":"2026-03-01","rent":1952.581608},{"period":"2026-04-01","rent":1953.683988},{"period":"2026-05-01","rent":1951.450037},{"period":"2026-06-01","rent":1950.771569}],"historySummary":{"pointCount":67,"firstPeriod":"2020-12-01","latestPeriod":"2026-06-01","coverageMonths":67,"coverageRatio":1,"changes":{"1":{"years":1,"startPeriod":"2025-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1949.472534,"endRent":1950.771569,"change":0.0006663520400231882,"cagr":0.0006663520400231882},"3":{"years":3,"startPeriod":"2023-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1955.724806,"endRent":1950.771569,"change":-0.0025326860838518206,"cagr":-0.0008449424212365608},"5":{"years":5,"startPeriod":"2021-06-01","endPeriod":"2026-06-01","startRent":1682.399091,"endRent":1950.771569,"change":0.15951772646315576,"cagr":0.0300432927187404}},"maxDrawdown":-0.02348777850061956,"annualizedVolatility":0.029271115718317052,"consecutiveReturnCount":66}}